John Danks might have been the underdog entering his matchup against Felix Hernandez, but after watching him throw eight innings of one-run ball, we might have to reconsider his standing in relation to the cream of the crop.
If Danks isn't elite now, when will he be?
It's not like this year's version of Danks is completely new. In some ways, he's been this good before. His walk and strikeout rates were both slightly better in 2008 than they are this year (and they're good this year). Up until tonight, Danks had a lower ERA, too (3.32).
But 2010 Danks has three things in his favor:
No. 1: Quantity. By throwing eight inning, Danks now averages 6 2/3 innings per start this season. He's on pace for 220 innings, which would blow by his previous best of 200 1/3, and it would be his third straight year of 200+ innings if you're willing to count his postseason victory over Tampa Bay in 2008.
No. 2: Hits allowed. Opponents are hitting .219 off him this year, and while it's hard to believe he can finish with a BAA that low, he's a guy who keeps clips down. He limited opponents to .245 and .246 the previous two years, and when he owns both sides of the plate with his cutter boring in and changeup diving away, he gets a lot of weak contact.
No. 3: Home runs allowed. It seemed like 2009 was a happy medium for Danks when it came to surrendering the long ball, as he had settled in between his 2007 and 2008 home run rates. Now we'll have to re-evaluate. Take a look at his HR/9s:
- 2007: 1.81
- 2008: 0.69
- 2009: 1.26
- 2010: 0.47
He gets a fair share of grounders (a career-high 47.5 percent entering this start), but he's able to keep the ball in the park by getting inside with that cutter. On nights like Monday, hitters are lucky to get their thumbs on it. He's bruising forearms on some swings.
Jake Peavy, with his big fastball, big talk and self-reflexive profanity, was supposed to be the ace of this staff. Danks has turned into the tone-setter instead. In the middle of the summer, when hitters find their grooves, humid air helps the ball carry and outfielders routinely run out of room in U.S. Cellular Field, White Sox starters have allowed two home runs this month.
This bears repeating. White Sox starters -- including junkballing Freddy Garcia, soft-tossing Mark Buehrle and scattershot Daniel Hudson -- have thrown 112 innings. They have allowed two homers.
If you want to add it to the above chart, that's a home run rate of 0.16. And Danks, who hasn't watched one of his own pitches sail into the stands since June 27, is leading the way.
Best yet, with four straight victories and seven in his last nine decisions, Danks has learned how to win! People who watch the Sox are well aware of the way the Sox lineup has abandoned him routinely, but for better or for worse, pitchers still need to rack up the W's in order to really receive consideration.
And you can't even pin it on wins, considering FanGraphs' Dave Cameron, who uses everything but wins to evaluate pitchers, said before the season, "Danks is not that much more valuable than [Jose] Lopez. Sorry, he's just not." According to WAR, Danks is a top 10 pitcher this year; Lopez is the 12th-least-valuable position player.
I don't use that to rag on Cameron (even though it's still funny), but it illustrates that Danks hasn't exactly fired up the baseball populace, traditional or sabermetric, for some reason.
Heads should start turning now, because Danks has turned into a complete package. He's pitched like this for three years in a row, with an ERA+ of 130 (and climbing!) over that stretch. He's battled through nagging injuries to finish strong. He's won a 163rd game and an elimination game in the playoffs. He's accomplished all of these by the age of 25, and without much-publicized programs with a name like "The Johnny Rules" to manage his workload.
The only shortcoming on his resume is that he's never won more than 13 games in a season. He's at 11 now, and if the last couple months are any indication, those precious W's are finally falling into place, too.
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David Haugh's column on Kenny Williams' options brings us another Paul Konerko quote. You'll never guess, but the Captain still doesn't think changes are necessary:
Inside the Sox's clubhouse before either Williams or Guillen addressed baseball's Hallmark holiday — the manufactured, overhyped July 31 trade deadline — Konerko spoke in a volume much lower than his bosses. But with words that should carry the most weight in this potentially pivotal week.
"The character of this team and the makeup is why we're probably competing at all,'' Konerko said. "That's a fragile thing and you have to watch that … but who knows, you could add somebody in a move that actually enhances that.''
I've said before that I understand why Konerko says this. I also understand that it can make a difference if a clubhouse is full of players who understand and embrace their roles.
Still, with every passing reference to preserving this precious balance, I start to think Mark Kotsay is pulling the strings behind it all, as if his beard contains the secrets to athletic success, and he distributes clippings of wisdom to his teammates in sandwich bags.
It seems weird that there is concern about the plight of a DH whose OPS has languished below .700 for all but 10 days of the season. But stranger things have happened, such as wringing hands over Jayson Nix's White Sox future when discussing whether Jim Thome should return.
If I were Kotsay, there's still one more stop he can pull before the deadline. Since he's basically a more straight-laced, union-abiding version of Kevin Millar, he should print out this story and slip it under Williams' door.
"Everybody is looking at stats ... I get it," Millar, who signed a minor-league contract with the Cubs, said Friday on "The Waddle & Silvy Show" on ESPN 1000. "But my point is when you're making a team and trying to bring in a bunch of different personalities I think everybody's got a certain amount of intangibles that they bring.
"Obviously, I'll bring some leadership qualities. I've won a World Series. Having a chance to play with guys like Ryan Dempster and Derrek Lee, we came up together in Florida. It's trying to make a family atmosphere and trying to get everybody to pull on the same rope and trying to get everybody to believe that we can do this."
Kotsay's won a World Series! The White Sox love a family atmosphere! Williams loves talking about pulling rope!
Most beneficial to his case, Millar didn't break spring training with the Cubs ... and look where they are now.
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Minor league roundup:
- Indianapolis 8, Charlotte 5
- Uneven outing for Chris Sale, who allowed a homer, loaded the bases on a single and two walks, then struck out the side.
- Alejandro De Aza went 2-for-5 with a triple, two strikeouts and two RBI; Brent Morel was 2-for-4.
- Tyler Flowers went 0-for-4, grounded into two double plays, struck out once and committed a throwing error. He did throw a runner out after a strikeout, at least.
- West Tenn 9, Birmingham 4
- Christian Marrero hit a solo shot, his fourth homer of the year and his only hit in four at-bats.
- Justin Green singled, walked and struck out.
- Eduardo Escobar was 1-for-4 with an RBI.
- Winston-Salem 7, Kinston 2
- Jon Gilmore went 2-for-4 with a double.
- Jose Martinez went 1-for-3 with a sac fly.
- Brandon Short wore the collar.
- Asheville 8, Kannapolis 6
- Brady Shoemaker singled twice, walked twice, drove in two and struck out once.
- Kyle Colligan went 2-for-5; Miguel Gonzalez 1-for-5 with two RBI.
- Tyler Saladino went 0-for-3 with two walks and a strikeout.
- Nick Ciolli went 3-for-4 with a walk and a strikeout.
- Juan Silverio earned the collar and a silver sombrero.
- Danville 11, Bristol 9 (10 innings)
- Screamin' Kevin Moran was tagged with the loss in his second straight outing, allowing two runs (one earned) on two hits and two walks in an inning, striking out one.
- Daniel Black was 1-for-6 with a strikeout and a throwing error.
- Rangel Ravelo was 2-for-6.
- Great Falls 6, Idaho Falls 4
- Leighton Pangilinan homered twice and struck out twice.
- Ross Wilson went 1-for-4 with a double.
- Andy Wilkins went 1-for-3 with a double and a walk.
