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Analysis

White Sox running bases backwards

Back in July, I wrote a guest piece for Rob Neyer's blog decrying Ozzie Guillen's bad habit of bunting Juan Pierre -- the league-leader in stolen bases -- to second in late-inning situations.
Not much has changed in the six weeks since. Guillen did it again on Sunday, wasting an out with Omar Vizquel to get Pierre to second during a tie game in the eighth inning. Pierre didn't score, and the White Sox ended up losing.
What's funny about the aforementioned blog entry is that I wrote it after Ned Yost engaged in unnecessary out-surrendering himself with Chris Getz (who ran wild on A.J. Pierzynski on Sunday). And likewise, a terrible bunting choice may have cost Yost a victory the day before.
Tony Pena had allowed five straight hits before Yost gave him an out by using Brayan Pena to bunt over runners to second and third. That had a huge impact on the game -- for the wrong team. Pena retired Pena, as well as the last 11 Royals he faced.
Yost's bunt, in my opinion, was a bigger crime than Guillen's. Bunting Pierre over is maddening, but the impulse is understandable. Sure, the stats show you that bunting a runner from first to second lowers the run expectancy, but how can that be? Scoring position! A single could score him! He's one hit away! Maybe a groundout and a wild pitch! Or two balks! ...

But Kansas City had its foot on Tony Pena's throat in the fourth inning on Saturday. The Royals greeted him with two singles, a double and two more singles, and Pena had no help in sight. Being the second game of a doubleheader, Pena was at least going five, mercy rule be damned.
The Royals put three runs up from those five hits. Why, all of a sudden, did they decide to start playing for one? Yost effectively grabbed a flashlight, got down on all fours with Pena and said, "Here, let me help you find your momentum." Pena got the first out, which was at least a light at the end of the inning. He found his way out, and then threw three perfect innings to close out a surprising start.
Yost keeps offering prime examples for Guillen in picking the wrong times to give up a first out. Guillen keeps refusing the lesson, and perhaps it wouldn't be so aggravating if Ozzie didn't play so fast and loose with the first 21 outs.
No team gets caught stealing more than the White Sox. In fact, they have no competition in this category. Sox runners have been gunned down 61 times; the Angels are second with 44. Factor those into the other outs they run into and the bases they don't take, and the Sox have already lost more bases this year (-22) than they did last year (-20), according to BillJamesOnline.
Brief aside: What's more, the Sox are going from first to third in 29 percent of their opportunities, and make it from second to home in 60 percent of the time. Both of those are near-exact matches with their cumulative averages over the last nine years. The only area this roster is revealing itself to be less basecloggy is in the first-to-home department (52 percent of the time; they were only successful 33 percent of the time over the eight years prior). I guess that's why Jim Thome didn't fit in these plans.
Add all of this together, and this is why I hate seeing Pierre getting bunted over. Guillen is OK running wild with strange candidates -- Pierzynski has seven steal attempts! -- in all sorts of odd situations, but he gets the tight sphincter when he has his best basestealer aboard and gaining 90 feet without an out would be Billy Fuccillo h-u-u-u-u-u-u-g-e (upstate New York, holla!).
Right now, the way Guillen manages baserunners is basically backwards. I would think Pierre getting caught stealing in the eighth would be more defensible than seeing Pierzynski get caught in the third. It might inflict more emotional damage, but at least he's trying to play to his players' strengths. Then again, pursuing a strategy without the players has been a running theme the entire season, as far as the offense is concerned.

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