The first of your 2011 White Sox offseason plans comes courtesy of talkendo (follow him on Twitter). Going first is always the toughest, so a tip of the cap is in order.
I have two more in the queue, and if you're interested in adding your own, the details are here.
Talkendo's 2011 White Sox offseason plan
PREAMBLE
I'm starting from the assumption that Kenny isn't ready to blow this team up and wants to take another good run at winning the division.This team gave it a good run through the middle of the season and, except for the Peavy injury and the black hole that was DH, COULD have been the one swept in the first round by the Yankees.This has been five years since the title, it's time to start questioning KW's methodology and whether the remnants of that core can get us back to the promised land.I tend to think we've reached the end for A.J., PK and Buehrle. But, as the original post doesn't include the "Nuclear Option", Kenny has left it so there aren't too many options for restructuring (unless he can fleece someone in a trade).
So, here's my off-season plan, also known as "Shuffling Deck Chairs on the Titanic."
IMMEDIATE DECISIONS (explain if warranted)
1) Would you offer arbitration to:
- A.J. Pierzynski? (Type A)
- Paul Konerko? (Type A)
- Manny Ramirez? (Type A)
- J.J. Putz (Type B)
I'm offering Paulie and J.J. arbitration; offering A.J. arb is a good way toget stuck with him.The door can hit Bobby Jenks on the way out.Itwas nice Manny, have fun in KC.
2) Would you pick up Ramon Castro’s $1.2 million option for 2011, or buy him out for $200,000?
Picking up Castro's option.That, or try to sign Gerald Laird or Josh Bard at less than $1.2 million.It's gotta be Flowers' job to lose.
CLUB CONTROL (explain if warranted)
3) One-year contract for John Danks?If not, what would you pay to extend him?
Danks, three years, $22 million, $5M-$7M-$10M.Same numbers as Floyd for first two; third year assumes progression.
4) Would you tender a contract to Bobby Jenks?
NO, for the love of all that's holy, NO.
5) Would you tender a contract to Carlos Quentin?
I'm torn here, this decision has to be made before the free agents hitthe market.I have to go with yes, penciling him at DH; I would RATHERhave Thome there, but Q is better than the DHydra we started the yearwith.I'm assuming he'll lose and we'll come in at around $4M.
6) Would you tender a contract to Tony Pena?
Yes. I'm assuming an figure at 1.5
FREE AGENCY: WHITE SOX
7) Which of the following impending White Sox free agents would you attempt to re-sign, and at what price:
*PK: Four years, $28 million,$10M-$8M-$6M-$4M.Assuming declining production and he retires as CWS or tradeable to contender at end.
*JJ: One year, $4 millon.Relievers, a dime a dozen.
*Andruw: One year, $1.5 million.If he balks and signs elsewhere, I'll give this to OV.
*Sadly,I let Omar go.Professional, surprising, but a) don't think he canhold up,b) Morel needs to go everyday (or prove he can't) and c) I'msqueezing blood from a stone to keep payroll from going up too much (I'mthinking $110 million and I'm at $111.425).
*Bye-bye to Freddy and Kotsay.I brought Pena back, he can havefirst crack at that job.Sale will be up after the All-Star break as fifth starter (ortraded with Edwin Jackson for a bag of balls, ugh) and Lillibridge can be Kotsay.
FREE AGENCY: OUTSIDE HELP
8) Which positions are in the most dire need of an upgrade?
Q needs to NOT be playing defense; we need a REAL DH (No, Manny; see,part of the title is HITTER, you didn't; neither did Q, but at leasthe'll be cheaper).
9) Name three (or more) free agents you’d consider, and at what price.
This is not a time to chase big names (we're either making a run withwhat we've got or blow up and start over). So, an even half-dozenrelievers as cheap as you can get 'em (any reliever not named MarianoRivera is inherently unprojectable; the moment you give them money thewheels fall off; see Jenks, Bobby).Keep some, toss the rest.Thome, ifhe's out there. Take a CHEAP flyer on Ian Snell or Dontrelle Willis as non-rosterinvitees for fifth starter/swingman?
TRADES
10) Name a couple (or more) realistic trades that could improve the Sox.
*Edwin Jackson for Corey Hart. Salary relief this year, opens rotation spot forSale/scrapheap fifth.Solidifies the Brewers' rotation in 2011 and the Sox outfield through2013, as Rios moves over when Mitchell is ready.Might need a castoff third OF at some point, but eh.Alejandro de Aza, anyone?
*Q for for some underperforming mid 20's starter that we think we can rehabilitate (Paul Maholm? James Shields? Jeff Francis?).
SUMMARY
11) Sum it all up in a paragraph or nine, and give a ballpark estimate of the total payroll.
This is a really crummy situation.
Best Case: With some regressionto the mean, we could be right back here again.Nobody had a careeryear other than Paulie and a bunch people outright stunk.I'm rewardingPK for being PK, but I don't expect this again.If Beckham becomesBeckham again, Che stays Che, we get a decent DH, Peavy comes back andpitches like 80%-90% of Jake Peavy and everybody else does what we knowthey can do, while we (try to) upgrade the bullpen and find a way to notput Teahen in the lineup, ever, this team can do 88 wins again.Willit win the AL Central? No. Second place.
Worst case: Rocks fall, everyone dies.Beckham's year wasn't amirage, Paulie's 2010 was the last gasp of a dying slugger, Rios revertsto 2008-2009 vintage, Peavy can't come back, Jackson really IS thepitcher people keep trading.And only Che, Andruw Jones, Danks andFloyd bother to remember there's baseball to be played.The team getstorn apart between the break and the deadline and Ozzie gets fired andKenny kicked upstairs.Last place, two games behind the Royals.We alldrink VERY heavily and get caught up in the Blackhawks' ongoing salarycap woes after their second consecutive Stanley Cup victory (yes, Isaid it).
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Arizona Fall League:
- Surprise 11, Peoria 4
- Eduardo Escobar went 2-for-5 with an RBI.
- Jared Mitchell went 0-for-4 with a strikeout. He also committed an error, but made up for it by throwing out a runner at third.
- Anthony Carter pitches another perfect inning with two strikeouts. He's retired all nine hitters he's faced, seven by the K.
