John Danks picked up an important victory in his final start of the 2010 season, not only because he built on his career-high total, but also because of who it came against.
Danks finished the year with a 15-11 record and a 3.72 ERA over 213 innings, all of which are improvements upon last season. He also set a career high in strikeouts with 162 while lowering his walk rate and his home run rate.
In the process, he also knocked Jon Lester down a peg, with some big help from Paul Konerko's grand slam. The White Sox spoiled Lester's bid for a 20th win, and also sank any hopes he had of a sub-3.00 ERA. He entered the game at 2.96, and left at 3.25.
It might help Danks that he got in Lester's way, because while Lester's a better pitcher than Danks in just about every way, he still might be the most comparable pitcher for Danks as he goes through his arbitration years. They're both young, talented, left-handed, and have similar workloads through their first full four seasons. The only difference is how their careers started -- Lester's first two seasons were half-years due to his battle with non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma, whereas Danks started 2007 in the rotation and stuck it out into September despite second-half struggles.
Since 2008, Lester's been one of the best pitchers in the entire American League, and Danks is about one step behind:
| W-L | ERA | IP | H | HR | BB | K | |
| Lester | 50-23 | 3.29 | 621.2 | 555 | 48 | 213 | 602 |
| Danks | 40-31 | 3.62 | 608.1 | 555 | 61 | 200 | 470 |
He's also one step behind in the salary department, though that may change.
In spring training of 2009, Lester signed a five-year, $30 million contract that bought out his first year of free agency with a club option for his second. He would have been in his first year of arbitration this season, and is getting paid $3.75 million for his services.
Danks chose by bypass the guaranteed payday last offseason, signing only a one-year deal for $3.45 million -- again, one step behind Lester. But this might be the year he catches up in the money. It's been a successful gamble for Danks, because it should put him on a higher salary trajectory than Lester despite being slightly inferior across the board. Danks helped his case on Thursday, because thanks to his effort, he can say that neither of them have ever won 20 games in a season.
Here's what Lester's making from here on out:
- 2011: $5.75M
- 2012: $7.62M
- 2013: $11.625M
- 2014: $13M club option ($250,000 buyout)
Based on these numbers, I'd guess that you can pencil in Lester's 2011 salary for Danks' when figuring out the 2011 payroll. If you're thinking about a contract involving a free agency year, it would probably be in the three-year, $25 million Lester zone.
That's also in line with Gavin Floyd's deal. Floyd is set to make $21.5 million from 2011 to 2013, if the Sox pick up his club option. Keep these numbers in mind going forward, because this is probably the range the Sox will deal with.
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True to his word, Paul Konerko answered questions about his impending free agency before hitting his 39th homer of the year on Thursday. And in true Konerko fashion, he was very measured with his words.
The key segment:
''I'm a White Sox, regardless if I go play somewhere else, that's what I'll be thought of, that's what I'll think of my career,'' Konerko said. ''I feel like that mission has been accomplished. If I go on, I'll sleep fine at night knowing I was loyal when the time came [after the 2005 season].
''There's emotions, there will always be. If I come back and I finish my career here, guess what? There's going to be emotions the last year. You're never going to get away from it. It's about doing what's right in that moment when it comes to make this next decision.''
Joe Cowley says Konerko indicated that he's looking at a three-year deal with a team that can win. The Sox certainly qualify, and since Konerko gave Jerry Reinsdorf the final out ball from the 2005 World Series, I don't think he's going anywhere. I'd probably put his baseline at three years and $30 million, and with a lot of lesser 30something first basemen hitting free agency as well, I'm guessing he might wait for a couple of dominoes to fall in order to properly set the market.
Gordon Beckham gave the most emphatic endorsement of Konerko yet:
"He's the leader of the team and we need him back for that purpose alone," Gordon Beckham said. "If he does what he did this year next year, great. But he's the leader of the team, and I'm not sure if he leaves this team, if there's anyone here who can fill his shoes right off the bat. We need him mentally as much as we did physically on the field."
