While baseball fans are eager to watch spring training games next week, today is Opening Day for college baseball. For the next four months, programs across the country will set their aims for Omaha and the College World Series, with major league scouts following them from game to game gathering intel for the MLB Draft that begins June 4.
It is worth following the college season because of the White Sox' recent draft trends. In the last three years, only one high schooler was selected in the first 10 rounds each year: Corey Zangari in 2015, Luis Curbelo in 2016 and Sam Abbott in 2017. Looking back to 2010, and out of the 71 players the White Sox have drafted in the first ten rounds, only 14 of them were high schoolers. If the trend continues in Nick Hostetler's third year of leading the draft effort, we should see plenty of selections from the college ranks.
Why so heavy on the college side? As Fangraphs Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen write, it's because teams are getting useful data to pair with the scouting reports.
It’s too early to do a mock draft that would amount to anything much greater than a collection of guesses (here’s the draft order, for reference), but something to monitor is the presence of those clubs that lean risk-averse/analytic/etc. in the top half of the first round. In light of certain trends within the game — and, in particular, what appears to be a greater interest in near-ready, low-end-regular types — this could push college players (and, specifically, college bats) up into the high first round. Both Oregon State and Missouri State have TrackMan units at their home parks, so clubs will have multiple years of data on Madrigal and Eierman to aid their evaluations. Hitters from Virginia have benefited in much the same way from strong, large-sample TrackMan data in recent drafts.
You will hear about TrackMan more than ever before leading up to the draft. For those unaware what TrackMan is, it is similar to MLB's StatCast. Using a Doppler radar, TrackMan now collects 27 data points such as exit velocity and spin rate. Many college programs have installed it or are installing them, and so have the top showcase circuits. The White Sox are one of those "risk-averse/analytic" teams McDaniel and Longenhagen referenced. They're taking scouting reports from the field and comparing to TrackMan data, leaning on analytics more than ever in an effort to key in on the parts of a prospect's game that can translate to the major leagues. Because of cost, TrackMan data is going to be far more prevalent with college players than high schoolers.
Who is worth following in 2018? That list starts with the defending national champion Florida Gators. Baseball America has Florida #1 in the pre-season Top 25 thanks to an outstanding starting pitching staff led by RHP Brady Singer and RHP Jackson Kowar. Both took the summer off from pitching to rest up after the College World Series victory and are projected to be top-10 picks, with Singer as the top draft prospect. Following Florida is No. 2 Oregon State. A popular pre-season pick for the Golden Spikes award, 2B Nick Madrigal is widely regarded as the best position player from the college ranks this season.
After Florida and Oregon State you will want to watch some SEC action. Friday nights are going to be a lot of fun when conference play begins with Auburn RHP Casey Mize, Ole Miss LHP Ryan Rolison, Kentucky RHP Sean Hjelle and Arkansas RHP Blaine Knight. Outside of the SEC, South Florida LHP Shane McClanahan is getting a lot of top-five buzz, and RHP Logan Gilbert from Stetson and LHP Tim Cate of UConn are of interest as well.
Of course, there is Clemson's 1B/DH Seth Beer. If he can perform closer to his freshman numbers Beer's draft stock will rebound. TCU's 1B slugger Luken Baker missed significant action due to a broken arm last year, but, if healthy, he can hit dingers with the best of them. Jake Burger's college teammate from Missouri State, SS Jeremy Eierman, will demand attention as he hit 23 home runs last year. In a draft with few quality college middle infielders, Eierman could see his stock soar.
Below is my preseason 25-man tracking list for college players. During the season, I will update it with how the players are performing while adding new names when appropriate. I'll be capturing more video this year and hope to bring highlights of these prospects to your attention. This initial list is in no particular order of ranking.
Player | School | Position | 2017 Season Stats |
Brady Singer | Florida | RHP | 126 IP, 9-5, 3.21 ERA, 129 K, 32 BB |
Shane McClanahan | South Florida | LHP | 76 IP, 4-2, 3.20 ERA, 104 K, 36 BB |
Nick Madrigal | Oregon State | 2B | .380/.449/.532 27 BB, 16 K, 26 XBH |
Ryan Rolison | Ole Miss | LHP | 61.2 IP, 6-3, 3.06 ERA, 64 K, 24 BB |
Casey Mize | Auburn | RHP | 83.2 IP, 8-2, 2.04 ERA, 109 K, 9 BB |
Jackson Kowar | Florida | RHP | 108 IP, 12-1, 4.08 ERA, 84 K, 44 BB |
Logan Gilbert | Stetson | RHP | 89 IP, 10-0, 2.02 ERA, 107 K, 26 BB |
Jeremy Eierman | Missouri State | SS | .313/.431/.675 41 BB, 61 K, 23 HR |
Travis Swaggerty | South Alabama | OF | .361/.487/.567 47 BB, 43 K, 10 HR |
Griffin Conine | Duke | OF | .298/.425/.546 41 BB, 45 K, 13 HR |
Greyson Jenista | Wichita State | OF | .320/.413/.509 32 BB, 46 K, 9 HR |
Joey Bart | Georgia Tech | C | .296/.370/.575 16 BB, 50 K, 13 HR |
Alec Bohm | Wichita State | 3B | .305/.385/.519 29 BB, 31 K, 11 HR |
Tristan Pompey | Kentucky | OF | .361/.464/.541 46 BB, 56 K, 10 HR |
Tim Cate | UConn | LHP | 75.2 IP, 4-3, 3.33 ERA, 102 K, 31 BB |
Luken Baker | TCU | 1B | .317/.454/.528 - missed significant action with broken arm |
Seth Beer | Clemson | 1B | .298/.478/.606 64 BB, 35 K, 16 HR |
Steele Walker | Oklahoma | OF | .333/.413/.541 25 BB 39 K 8 HR |
Matt Mercer | Oregon | RHP | 88 IP, 6-7, 3.16 ERA, 59 K, 30 BB |
Jake McCarthy | Virginia | OF | .338/.425/.506 26 BB, 35 K, 23 XBH |
Kyle Isbel | UNLV | OF | .290/.349/.446 18 BB, 39 K 21 XBH |
Sean Hjelle | Kentucky | RHP | 108.2 IP, 11-4, 3.89 ERA, 102 K, 33 BB |
Lars Nootbar | USC | 1B | .313/.419/.510 36 BB, 33 K, 7 HR |
Blaine Knight | Arkansas | RHP | 90.2 IP, 8-4, 3.28 ERA, 96 K, 20 BB |
Zach Watson | LSU | OF | .317/.376/.507 17 BB, 42 K, 9 HR |
Predictions
- College World Series: Florida vs. Florida State
- Golden Spikes winner: Seth Beer