“The Cost” – A Kansas City Royals preview

7:00 AM CDT on March 28, 2018

It's over. It's finally, finally over.

Since Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Lorenzo Cain got together for their first full season in Royal blue in 2012, the White Sox have posted a mere 43-70 (.381) record against Kansas City. The decrepit performance probably only cost the Sox a playoff berth one time, but very little about White Sox baseball has been more frustrating and daunting than seeing "KC" approach on the calendar, especially when you think the season's about to turn a corner. Here's a brief history of the suck.

2012: The White Sox finish 6-12 against the Royals and a particular critical series in September helped to sink their playoff push. The Sox had just won their most important game of the season, a 5-4 victory in an isolated make-up game against the Tigers at U.S. Cellular Field that put them up 3 games in the division with 16 to play. The White Sox then ventured to Kansas City and took the opener, but then got blanked by Bruce "Cy" Chen in game 2. The rubber match had a very familiar arc. With the game tied, Jarrod Dyson stole second base in the bottom of the ninth, in what feels like one of about a hundred instances of that particular ominous setup. Robin Ventura elected to walk Jeff Francoeur to get Matt Thornton a lefty-lefty matchup with Eric Hosmer, who shot a single the opposite way to send the Sox to the showers. Reeling from that loss, the Sox kicked off a series in Anaheim the next day and got swept.

2013: Who cares.

2014: The surprising upstart White Sox were treading water and hovering around .500 into June until getting swept in series at U.S. Cellular Field while getting outscored 22-6. The Royals blitzed starters Jose Quintana (okay), Hector Noesi (well...) and Andre Rienzo (yeah...) and the Sox never came within a game of .500 the rest of the way.

2015: The most frustrating of them all. With hopes sky-high after an eventful offseason, the White Sox opened the season in Kansas City and fell completely flat, as prized new acquisition Jeff Samardzija was rocked and the Sox got swept. On April 23, they'd get into a brawl with the cocky, up-and-coming Royals team that caused suspensions and a broken Matt Albers finger before the Sox lost the game in 13 innings. Finally, after going on a 9-3 run into the All-Star break and bringing themselves back into the fringes of the playoff conversation, the Royals came into Chicago and took three of four, killing whatever momentum the Sox had and their hopes for the season along with it.

2016: The White Sox got off to a hot 23-10 start, but struggled to maintain it. The Royals must have smelled blood in the water when Ventura's squad rolled into late May, because what followed was the most absurd run of lead-blowing that I can ever remember. The White Sox choked away margins of 5-1, 7-1, and 4-2 in the late innings to get swept. The middle game was particularly painful, as the Royals rallied for seven runs in the bottom of the ninth off of David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle. Brett Eibner's walk-off single off of Kahnle pushed the White Sox out of first place for good.

2017: Cracks begin to show, and the White Sox actually post a winning 10-9 record against Kansas City.

One hopes that the White Sox can continue to trend upward in this matchup, as the state of the 2018 Kansas City Royals is deplorable. Cain and Hosmer have moved on, and the team that remains is worse than most of those that tortured the White Sox for years. Still, there are some familiar faces hanging around. Very late in the offseason, the Royals re-upped the power-hitting Moustakas after teams around the league determined that he both wasn't project-able enough to justify a long-term risk and wasn't good enough that the short-term boost would offset the loss of a draft pick. Alcides Escobar and his league-worst-for-a-regular bat are still in the fold at shortstop. So is Salvador Perez, who's probably the most overrated player in baseball; he's made five All-Star teams and won four Gold Gloves, despite being a horrible receiver and posting at least 1.0 WARP just one season in his career. Alex Gordon's smoldering husk is still wandering around left field and ex-Sox castoff Paulo Orlando is still showcasing his speed and complete lack of plate discipline.

If you want to look for positives among Kansas City's position player forecast, you're in for a tough time. The Royals' best player is probably second baseman Whit Merrifield, who not only brings some pop and speed (his 34 stolen bases led the American League last year), but also represents one of the few plus gloves on Kansas City's severely depleted defense. Right fielder Designated hitter Jorge Soler was hurt for most of last season and hit .144 when he was able to play. There's a strong chance the Royals wound up with nothing in return for Wade Davis. Hunter Dozier was a shortstop in college, but has slid all the way down the defensive spectrum to first base, where the demands on his bat are considerably higher. His 2016 season in the minors suggests he has a chance to provide value, but injuries sapped his 2017 season, so there will be a lot of eyes on his performance this year. Perhaps recognizing that Dozier might need a re-adjustment period, the Royals inked platoon lefty Lucas Duda to give themselves coverage in the meantime.

The outlook for the Royals' pitching staff is no better. It's mostly a starting rotation of arms that hope to tread water for five or six innings, which worked a lot better when Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland were lurking behind them. It's also a bunch of guys who will let opposing offenses hit the ball in the air, which worked a lot better when Dyson, Cain, and a younger Gordon were roaming the outfield (and when the ball wasn't juiced). Lefty Danny Duffy is the ace of the staff and his go-to out pitch is the changeup, which is effectively set up by a fastball that has quite a bit of lift to it. Behind Duffy, there isn't much. Jason Hammel is a durable, run-of-the-mill innings muncher who belongs in a major league rotation, but not near the front. Ian Kennedy allowed over a .900 OPS to opposing hitters the second time through the order last season. Nate Karns probably has the highest upside of the non-Duffy starters and has genuine strikeout ability, but has yet to suppress both homers and walks in the same season. Jake Junis had a competent turn with the Royals late last season, but the White Sox never faced him. The righty throws a fourseam/slider/sinker mix that looks like it could stick at the back of a major league rotation.

*****

The Royals have lost two core position players, have gone from great to terrible on defense, and no longer boast a lights-out bullpen. We've seen this franchise defy expectations time and time again, and even in 2017 they managed to outpace PECOTA's forecast by 9 games despite their sub-.500 finish. PECOTA is once again predicting them for a low win total (65), but this year it feels about right. Kansas City mortgaged everything they could for their two trips to the World Series and the two subsequent years of treading water with their expiring core. Now it's time for the cost of all that to sink in. Unlike the rival White Sox and Detroit Tigers, though, the Royals can at least head into their collapse knowing they have a championship in their pocket.