“Bad Dreams” – A Texas Rangers preview

8:00 AM CDT on May 17, 2018

Should I skip my annual tradition of displaying the Texas Rangers' seemingly perpetual injury problems?

Sadly, that list of currently-hurt Rangers is probably the least of their woes. They're a team that's considerably less talented than at least three division rivals without a farm system to inspire hope for the future. In a word, they're "stuck".

Given their success in the first seven years of the decade, that might not be the worst thing in the world. Texas went to the World Series twice and the postseason five times in that span. That's a considerable streak of success for a team, unless your only measuring stick is championships. The players that drove the Rangers to those heights have either moved on or considerably aged, so it's time for them to start thinking about what's going to come next for the franchise. 'Step One' of that process is to figure out which of their players are keepers. Their pitching staff would be considered 'old' even if Bartolo Colon didn't have such a gravitational pull on the average, but there's plenty for the Rangers to evaluate on the position-player side of the equation.

One such player is Jurickson Profar, a former number-one overall prospect who feels like he's been around forever but has yet to accumulate 1,000 big league plate appearances due to injuries and ineffectiveness. Profar hits like a shortstop but doesn't field like one, and remains an excellent counterexample for you to use against someone trying to take prospect rankings as a certain indicator of future success. Another disappointing middle infielder has been Rougned Odor, who was promising through 2016 but somehow wound up with an OPS+ of 65 last season despite clubbing 30 homers. The undisciplined hacker will be out to prove that last season was just bad luck, but that'll be tough to do because the shift gobbles up the lefty's BABIP.

Another guy victimized by the shift is Joey Gallo, but it's less problematic for him because 1) Gallo actually walks and 2) they've yet to design a shift that defends against balls hit ten rows deep in the outfield seats. Gallo's been moved to the outfield due to the promotion of first base prospect Ronald Guzman and the woeful inadequacy of Opening Day left field starter Ryan Rua (seriously). Guzman didn't show much of a swing-and-miss problem in the minors, but he's had so much trouble making contact with major league pitching that even Gallo is cringing a little bit.

If we're looking for bright spots among Rangers position players, Nomar Mazara looks like he's taking a step forward this year, as he's already reached double-digits in home runs. He's even been effective against lefties, which would be a great development for Texas if it holds because Mazara looked like he was destined for the 'platoon' tag before this season. Adrian Beltre is still an above-average major league hitter thanks to his typical over-.300 batting average, but his power seems to have all but disappeared, as he's had only a single round-tripper so far this season. The future Hall of Famer has been a great gift to baseball and there is no shame in slowing down at age 39. Finally, Delino DeShields seems to be making his case to enter the upper echelon of American League defensive center fielders, as his arm and range make him a valuable player while providing roughly league-average offense at the plate.

While many Rangers hitters are guys looking to prove that they can be contributors in the show, the Texas rotation is filled with guys just trying to convince everyone that they still have something left in the tank. The most convincing such case is from Cole Hamels. Hamels has lost a little velocity and looks to be compensating for it by relying more heavily on his cutter, which seems to be moving better this year than it has in past seasons. The aforementioned 45-year-old Colon is still doing the same thing he's done for years, namely whipping high-80s two-seamers with movement at the strike zone repeatedly until batters just give in and hit the ball at somebody. The key to his entire game is avoiding walks like the plague.

Doug Fister's velocity is more or less back to where it was during his Detroit heyday, but his control is not. Fister was never a strikeout artist, but he used to be remarkable at suppressing walks and dingers and that can't be said anymore. Journeyman Mike Minor resurfaced with the Royals last season after a two year absence from the major leagues thanks to a torn labrum. He was a stellar reliever for Kansas City, but is back to starting with the Rangers this year. With reduced velocity in the rotation, Minor's hard pitches tend to get smacked around a little, though his curveball is tough enough to allow him to swim at the back end of a rotation. Matt Moore is an awful pitcher and a waste of a major league rotation slot. That he used to be a highly-regarded prospect seven years ago is irrelevant at this point.

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With a shortage of both short-term and long-term talent, the Rangers look to be heading toward a place of a baseball fan's bad dreams. The competitive AL West will do them no favors with trying to improve in the short-term and they look short on trade assets to re-stock the farm. Flipping Hamels seems like a no-brainer this July, and Beltre could be moved if he's inclined to waive his 10-and-5 rights and the return is sufficient to overcome shipping off an organizational icon. Other than those, there's nothing in the way of quick fixes for the Rangers.

Well, almost nothing. Athletic trainers Kevin Harmon and Matt Lucero have overseen this absurd stretch of poor health from Rangers players over the last half-decade, and the standards for termination are starting to feel downright Reinsdorfian.

Probable Starting Pitchers