Per my recent tradition, I'm handling the Cubs preview a little differently than the others. White Sox fans already have a heightened awareness of the general state of the Cubs' organization and the makeup of their roster (especially because the key players haven't been changing much from year-to-year). Rather than the overview style I use for the other teams, I'm just going to highlight a few key storylines.
Is Jason Heyward fixed?
At a couple points on the young season, the Cubs' beleaguered outfielder had a nice-looking triple-slash line. This made many people who are anxiously looking at the length and weight of his contract want to believe that he's righted the ship. Alas, his line now sits pretty much in line with who he's been since putting on a Cubs uniform. There may be more to the story, however. Here's Heyward's xwOBA by season:
- 2015: .319
- 2016: .303
- 2017: .321
- 2018: .377
Two things jump out at me when looking at this:
- He's making a lot better contact in 2018. There's been more hard-hit balls and fewer grounders.
- He played for St. Louis in 2015 and posted a wOBA of .346. A deceptively lucky season on balls in play before Statcast went mainstream may have helped Heyward to get that huge contract.
This could be Javier Baez' breakout season
From 2015-2017, Baez was basically the same guy each year. He could give you league-average offense by providing enough pop and speed to offset a glaring lack of plate discipline, coupled with good (if constantly exaggerated) defense at the keystone. This year, he's significantly cut his whiffs and has been hitting the living snot out of the ball. The walks aren't there and may never come, but if Baez is able to harness his raw power like this over an extended sample, he'll be a consistent all-star.
The starting rotation has control problems
They aren't White Sox-level problems, mind you, but they've been pretty crippling and a key reason that the Cubs are off to a slow start. Every Cubs starter except Kyle Hendricks has a walk rate of at least 10 percent, with Tyler Chatwood by far the biggest offender at 18.6 percent. Despite the walk rate, Chatwood seems to be managing opponent contact the best of the bunch; Jose Quintana, Jon Lester, and Yu Darvish have all been roughed up this season.
A leader in a slump
Anthony Rizzo has been an anchor in the Cubs' lineup for years, but this season he's off to an unfathomably slow start. There's usually some bad luck involved when a credible major league hitter is batting close to .200, and Rizzo's no exception. That said, his performance has been thoroughly unremarkable this year and it's tough to understand why. His walk rate is way down, but that's not a by-product of him chasing bad pitches. If anything, pitchers seem to be challenging him more with strikes and don't seem as afraid to throw fastballs on the inner half, so his polite "RESPECT ME!" request seems to have fallen on deaf ears.
Redemption for Kyle Schwarber?
The Kyle Schwarber that's been on display this year has been a different guy from the disappointing version of past seasons. He's making more contact and chasing fewer bad pitches, and as a result, he has a strikeout rate that's much more manageable. Much was made of his offseason weight loss, but it could be a real explanation for why the whiffs don't seem to be piling up anymore. Schwarber still can't do a thing against lefties, but as long as he continues with his current approach (and dietary regimen), he could stick as a tremendous force in the lineup, even if he still should never be mentioned in the same breath as you-know-who.
Odds & Ends
- Ian Happ's strikeout rate is 45 percent
- Carl Edwards' strikeout rate is also 45 percent, but you know, in a good way
- Albert Almora has finally laid claim to regular playing time thanks to very good defense in center. Interestingly, the Cubs are 13-5 when he leads off, and 6-10 when he doesn't.
- Kris Bryant is still great
*****
For Cubs fans, the slow-ish start to the season and the sudden emergence of several competitive teams in the division are cause for concern, but probably not alarm. They still easily have the best postseason odds of any NL Central team. However, it's fair to question whether we've already seen the best iteration of this current Cubs' core. The position players are generally young and not declining anytime soon, but the Cubs will probably never get anything close to the starting pitching they had in 2016 again. This year's struggles with the rotation are merely continuing a trend that started last season, which just illustrates the difficulty of building a consistently strong pitching staff in this league. The Cubs probably have a few years left as the boys of summer in this town, but it's a fickle sport and things can change quickly. The panic among Cubs fans about the first month and a half of the season probably undersells the strength of their chances going forward, but is also rooted in the very valid sentiment that future success in baseball is never something to be taken for granted.
Probable Starting Pitchers
- Friday, May 11: Carson Fulmer vs. Tyler Chatwood. This game may feature some walks.
- Saturday, May 12: James Shields vs. John Lester
- Sunday, May 13: Lucas Giolito vs. Kyle Hendricks
Probable Lineup
- Albert Almora - CF
- Kyle Schwarber - LF
- Kris Bryant - 3B
- Anthony Rizzo - 1B
- Willson Contreras - C
- Javier Baez - 2B
- Addison Russell - SS
- Jason Heyward - RF
Pitching
- SP1: Jose Quintana - LHP
- SP2: Kyle Hendricks - RHP
- SP3: Jon Lester - LHP
- SP4: Tyler Chatwood - RHP
- SP5: (DL) Yu Darvish - RHP
- CL: Brandon Morrow - RHP
- RP1: Carl Edwards - RHP
- RP2: Pedro Strop - RHP
- RP3: Brian Duensing - LHP
