After spending Monday assessing the best use of Dylan Covey's limited effectiveness, we continue the All-Patreon All-Star Break with a question Sox Machine Supporter Andrew Segall:
Now that this year’s draft has happened, could you give some thought to an organizational depth chart, by position, with an eye towards building the 2020 roster from internal talent only? It could double as a “what if the Sox don’t spend any meaningful money” exercise and an eye on who/what to draft next year.
Let's do it.
Catcher
It's Zack Collins and Seby Zavala, or Seby Zavala and Zack Collins, depending on whether you think Collins' defensive skills can ever catch or surpass Zavala's. Collins is easier to move to first base thanks to his batting eye assuming his hit tool can hang at the higher levels, which isn't a given.
There isn't much going on besides them, especially since Evan Skoug's progress at Kannapolis has been undone over a very rough last month and a half. Carlos Perez is probably the next-most-intriguing catcher, and he's got a .293 OBP at Kannapolis as a 21-year-old.
Basically, if the White Sox draft Oregon State's Adley Rutschman with their first-round pick next year, nobody's going to be in his way.
First base
Even with just four homers over 77 games this season, Gavin Sheets has the most upward mobility of any prospect at first base for the White Sox, as there is nobody blocking him at Charlotte (Casey Gillaspie), much less Birmingham (Keon Barnum). The hit tool and plate discipline are there, but he has to hit the ball out of the park before plans can be made.
The same thing can be said for Justin Yurchak, who is hitting .253/.354/.333 with a 13.4 percent walk rate and 15.8 percent strikeout rate at Kannapolis, but isn't offering much in the way of extra-base hits and doesn't have defensive versatility to offer any alternatives. Corey Zangari is the only one booming the ball, but he's just coming off a lost year at Great Falls.
Long story short, there's a home here if Collins can't cut it at catcher. It's also why there's an air of inevitability around Jose Abreu, although the longer his struggles last, the less his free agency after 2019 is a dire concern.
Second base
Between Yoan Moncada in the majors and Nick Madrigal getting started in Kannapolis, it's bad news for everybody in between. The good news is that the middle infielders of some intrigue all can handle shortstop. Let's just go there now.
Shortstop
There's no reason to boot Tim Anderson from the position, especially when Moncada has had all sorts of problems at second this year. Still, the Sox have what you'd call organizational depth at this position that can be moved down the spectrum. Jose Rondon at Charlotte, Danny Mendick at Birmingham, Laz Rivera at Winston-Salem and Luis Curbelo at Kannapolis -- all these guys can't be written off as rosterable utility types, and maybe even more in the case of a younger guy like Curbelo.
Judging only by the rate of errors committed, Curbelo seems way more comfortable at shortstop than third, but he may have to move depending on how badly the Sox want to see Madrigal at the infield's most demanding position.
Underneath the full-season affiliates, Lenyn Sosa looks like one international pick who is staying at the position. He's hitting .290/.297/.449 at Great Falls, and while one might laugh at the plate discipline numbers, 1) he's only struck out 13 times in 26 games, and 2) he's just 18 years old.
Third base
Plans for this position got blowed up real good when Jake Burger blew out his Achilles twice. It's a good thing Ti'Quan Forbes discovered a hit tool this year, because there would be nothing else to report here from the full-season affiliates. He's hitting .284/.325/.407 as a 21-year-old in Winston-Salem, which is progress from having no discernable skills the year before. Curbelo is also a possibility in A-ball. This year's draft gave the White Sox further projectability with Lency Delgado, but they're all projects at this point.
This is why Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado are so desired by White Sox fans, and why their cases are given even the slighest bit of consideration. That said, it also seems like a potential home for Moncada if second base proves too much for his dexterity.
Center field
The Sox have plenty of options here, even if Luis Robert's thumb has limited him to just 21 games outside the Dominican Summer League. Luis Alexander Basabe leads the way as a 21-year-old who was deserving of a promotion to Birmingham, even if his early performance there (.233/.320/.314, 29 strikeouts over 22 games) makes it difficult to put him on a firm timetable. Luis Gonzalez and now Steele Walker also provide upside among the non-Roberts, but Adam Engel, Charlie Tilson and Leury Garcia won't be challenged from below this season.
Joel Booker was drafted in the 22nd round partially because of his age. At 24, he's on the older side for a speed-oriented prospect, which is why the uptick in power has been a pleasant surprise. Birmingham will be a test for everything in his game regardless, and he's hitting .267/.315/.376 over his first 23 Double-A games.
Underneath it all, Luis Mieses' stateside debut is going fairly well for an 18-year-old, as he's hitting .278/.283/.433 for the AZL White Sox.
Corner outfield
The Sox are also well-stocked here when you consider that everybody in center can slide over. Eloy Jimenez is at the top of the heap regardless, and can probably be promoted any day now (although the Sox will probably want to make sure he's healthy so they don't use service time on an early DL stint). The only drawback is that he's played more left field than right this year, so he's not a direct replacement for Avisail Garcia unless the position shift is purely to make it easier on legs that aren't 100 percent.
After that, a post-surgery Micker Adolfo will provide power with the hope of an evolving hit tool, and Blake Rutherford will provide a hit tool with the hope of maturing power. Alex Call is in between, which gets the 'tweener label due to the lack of a carrying tool.
As for the MLB level, Garcia's injury reduces the urgency to address his post-2019 future, and Nicky Delmonico and Daniel Palka have yet to distinguish themselves as more than short-term entertainment. Like the current center fielders, they're still not under a ton of pressure at this time.
Starting pitchers
While Michael Kopech is basically ready for a look, the injuries to Alec Hansen and Dane Dunning make it harder to project an entirely homegrown rotation by the end of 2019. They're still high-impact guys, and with Dylan Cease checking off all boxes so far in 2018, their collective upside is still intact, albeit delayed.
The Sox also have an array of recent second-day draft picks (Jordan Stephens, Jimmy Lambert, Bernardo Flores) in the high minors who could angle for an audition at some point in 2019. We'll see whether the recently promoted 2017 draft picks like Lincoln Henzman and Blake Battenfield power through new challenges in Winston-Salem.
The hope is that the development of Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez mean all these guys won't be necessary, and I wouldn't mind it if Carlos Rodon would stick around, too.
If some of them advance over the next year-plus, new third-round pick Konnor Pilkington adds a collegiate lefty to the ranks, and fifth-rounder Jonathan Stiever adds another righty. Thirteenth-rounder Jason Bilous and 14th-rounder Davis Martin are harder to peg right now).
Relievers
It's easy to forget that Zack Burdi is still around, and once he returns from Tommy John surgery, he'll be the high-octane righty the bullpen has been missing with Nate Jones out. Thyago Vieira and Ian Hamilton could beat him there, but they don't have his fastball. Tyler Johnson is trying to get in the picture, too, as he could probably be in Birmingham by now, but Jose Ruiz is doing a fine job there (36 strikeouts to 24 baserunners over 28 innings).
Between Jace Fry and Aaron Bummer, the Sox have two homegrown lefties who could hang on the 25-man roster for years. The Sox drafted South Florida closer Andrew Perez in the eighth round as somebody who might be able to race up the minors in a limited role. Otherwise, this side is thinner.
* * *
Along with the stumbles at the major league level, injuries (Hansen, Dunning, Robert) and conservative promotions (Kopech, Jimenez) make it difficult to establish roster spots with confidence for 2019. It seems like there are two infield spots, one outfield spot, most of a rotation and half a bullpen hammered down, but the rest is still up for grabs in the big picture.
That lack of certainty makes it easy to lose faith in the rebuild, but the depth is still adequate. The problem with depth is that, as we're seeing in center field, it's not satisfying in and of itself until names and dates emerge.
It also makes it difficult to justify spending big in 2019, unless it's for an elite talent. If they want to go after Machado to take care of third base for the next five-plus seasons, by all means. But when it comes to the contracts where the first two years of the deal are vital to the success of he signing, the Sox won't be able to put those to the best use.
That said, I can see a case where the Sox are players in January and February for short deals, where an OK starter gives the Sox an idea of what their roster looks like with an adequate contributor in center field or third base or wherever. If another Mike Moustakas situation arose, I'd be all for taking a crack at it.
As for the system, strong debuts for Madrigal and Walker to overcome the questionable first-day picks of Burger and Sheets in 2017 would help. They won't help the corner infield spots or catcher, which are the three biggest voids if Plan A doesn't work out (or, in the case of third base, there is no Plan A). Going forward, besides the usual mandates for up-the-middle talent and pitchers, corner power is probably the biggest void that can be specifically targeted in the various markets.
By 2020, I'd probably count on three infield spots and two outfield spots having MLB-caliber talent from the farm system, and potentially an entire rotation. Some of those guys will be going through their first full seasons and so averageness can't be expected, but more should be expected from the Moncada-Jimenez-Anderson-Kopech sect, and the Sox should have a better idea of where they're going to get no internal support for that core. If there aren't compelling reasons to add to that team, then I'd start wondering about the rebuild.
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