In the first two installments of our All-Patreon All-Star Break, we discussed the best use of Dylan Covey's limited effectiveness and an overall look at the state of the rebuild. Now here's ol' Sporcle Ted with another one:
What themes will you be looking for from the White Sox during the second half of the season?
Let’s look at it about which ones will be resolved in chronological order.
Trades
Unlike last season, where Rick Hahn could deal had one of the market’s defining players and a few back-end relievers along with a handful of steady veterans, the White Sox are short on players other teams might want. Avisail Garcia’s hamstring strains have problem taken him off the board, and even if you assumed Abreu’s presence made him hard to move, a month-and-a-half slump has sealed the deal.
Drawing parallels to the spectrum of last summer’s deals, James Shields looks like a Miguel Gonzalez Plus. Shields have a hard time cracking a playoff rotation and his stuff wouldn’t play up in a bullpen the traditional way, but a team with a taxed bullpen and short starter could use him for August and September. Joakim Soria doesn't have David Robertson's recent history or Tommy Kahnle's stuff and team control, but he might slot ahead of Anthony Swarzak even after accounting for salaries. Xavier Cedeno could be Dan Jennings-like, and seems ahead of Luis Avilan. That’s about it, unless the Sox dig into their supply of lefty relievers (Jace Fry?) or utility infielders (Leury Garcia? Yolmer Sanchez?) who make a rebuilding year more bearable.
(Updated to add Soria and acknowledge Avilan.)
Promotions
We’ll find out Thursday night whether Michael Kopech’s most recent start was the kind of issue-forcing resurgence, or merely a temporary correction from a guy who shouldn’t have been as bad as he’d been, but still has issues to overcome. Eloy Jimenez doesn’t seem to have that question hanging over his head. He just needs to stay healthy.
There’s also a live-armed layer of relievers underneath the current bullpen that could surface if the White Sox bullpen requires revisions one way or another, but Ian Hamilton’s debut isn’t going to create headlines in the way Yoan Moncada’s did last year.
Six-month seasons
My stock line for rookies playing their first six-month MLB season is “Let’s see what he looks like in September.” It was my approach to Tim Anderson last year, and it’s my approach to guys like Yoan Moncada, Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito this season.
With Moncada, he’s gone great month --> awful month --> awful month --> great (half) month. I expected uneven play from him because he wasn’t a finished product, and he couldn’t be finished at Triple-A because he out-talented everybody on the field. The talent is still evident, because even the low bidder among WAR models has him as an average player despite considerable flaws. If he can cut down on the strikeout rate … if he can hike his performance against lefties … if he can soften his hands at second to be more the way they looked last year … any one of those are avenues to above-averageness.
Lopez has sustained his best velocity better, both within a game and over the course of the season, and there’s something to be said for a young pitcher who gets OK results with such a terrible defense behind him. It’d just be nice to see more swinging and missing when he has this 96-98 mph fastball, but the changeup in particular has taken a step backward. As for Giolito, throwing strikes in the first inning would be a good start, literally and literally.
Impending free agents
Last year, Abreu and Avi Garcia created a dilemma with their All-Star-caliber production – trade them to add fuel to the rebuild, or extend them to make them a part of it? Strong rumors never materialized, and Rick Hahn demurred when asked about new contracts. This season so far says the market forces prevailed.
There’s still time for them to reverse course, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this outage killed the Abreu rumor mill (the Sox didn’t seem interested in dealing him, and now the demand is lower, so…). Garcia is a different matter, especially since he looked like an entirely different hitter in between injuries. The guy who figured out how to lash the ball in the air to left can get paid. The guy who built his success on an array of unusual hits for a guy his size will always have doubters.
Prospect of note
The White Sox are looking at this lineup:
- C: Welington Castillo
- 1B: Jose Abreu
- 2B: Yoan Moncada
- 3B: Yolmer Sanchez
- SS: Tim Anderson
- LF: Eloy Jimenez
- CF: Adam Engel
- RF: Avisail Garcia
- DH: Matt Davidson/Nicky Delmonico/Daniel Palka
That’s watchable. The Sox are theoretically one position away from an adequate lineup. The problem is that catcher, first and right field could reopen again following the 2019 season, so it’s not bankable.
When I look at the combination of this lineup and the time pressures it faces, the first thing I think is, “Zack Collins does not need to catch.” It’d be great if he could since Castillo is a free agent after 2019 and neither Kevan Smith nor Omar Narvaez are answers, but with first base and DH also being question marks for the long term, I’d feel comfortable with letting his hitting dictating his development. If he reverted to his draft-day "great bat/won’t catch" profile, terrific.
Whether the bat is great remains an open question, because after his explosive May, he’s hit just .224/.344/.388 with 53 strikeouts over the 164 plate appearances since. I don’t think I’d call him the most important prospect over the remainder of the season, but he's the one who could go the most directions with his stock, maybe. His 2016 draft day buddy Alec Hansen isn’t far behind.
Hawk's last flight
The White Sox are terrible at saying goodbye, but they've done a fine job with the end of the Hawk Harrelson era. While some might argue that he could've been out years ago, a broadcaster staying well past his prime is not unique to this franchise.
I'm pretty much used to Jason Benetti's booth and the trade-offs good (a more engaged/predictive Steve Stone) and bad (the pulled muscles stretching for jokes). An abrupt shift from one to the other would have shed fans, but now he's no longer the strange one to hear.
Likewise, the season's "This Is Your Life" theme has brought closure to the Harrelson era in positive and, well, pragmatic ways. It's nice to see characters from Harrelson's past join him and hearing the warm exchanges that result. It's also somewhat reassuring to know that no matter who joins Harrelson in the booth, the conversation gets dragged to familiar themes. While he and Stone lacked chemistry from Day One and still lack it on Day Whatever It Is Now, it seems a different partner could have set a different tone as long as the White Sox played so poorly (and maybe even if they won).
Knowing this, the end doesn't strike me as sad. If the Sox send him out the way they did for Paul Konerko, it could be perfect.
Thanks to Ted and 180something others for their support of Sox Machine, especially considering Ted already contributes with his weekly dives into White Sox history. If you’d like to support Sox Machine, sign up here.
