Most everyone has heard the phrase, "Winner winner, chicken dinner." In our household, we root for chicken nugget money. It began when I tried to convince my girlfriend, Kim, to actively root for my DFS teams during NFL season so I can win money. Now, I'm not a heavy gambler by any means. I rarely ever bet more than $5 on a game, in DraftKings and Draft I never enter contests more than $3 entry, and when placing bets on games, it's typically $0.50. I'm the quarter slot machine grandma of sports betting.
Because I make such small plays, the outcome is never tremendous. When Kim asked, "What do I get out of you winning?" I responded that I could win seven dollars. To my amazement, she got excited because seven dollars is enough to buy her chicken nuggets from McDonald's on a lazy Sunday afternoon. Thus, the phrase "chicken nugget money," was born.
*******************************************************
On February 16th, 2018 I placed $0.50 bets on MLB Futures over/under season win totals. The only teams I did not make a preseason wager on were the Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals for some reason I do not remember. Six months later, and six weeks remaining in the season, I thought it would be worthwhile to check on my progress. Compare my bets to what ZiPS/Fangraphs is projecting to happen for the rest of 2018.
For those that don't remember the MLB Futures lines, here were the preseason O/U win totals from Bovada:
| Team | O/U Line | My Bet |
| Anaheim Angels | 84.5 | Over |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 85.5 | Under |
| Atlanta Braves | 74.5 | Under |
| Baltimore Orioles | 73.5 | Over |
| Boston Red Sox | 91.5 | Over |
| Chicago Cubs | 94.5 | Over |
| Chicago White Sox | 68.5 | Over |
| Cincinnati Reds | 73.5 | Under |
| Cleveland Indians | 94.5 | Under |
| Colorado Rockies | 82.5 | Over |
| Detroit Tigers | 68.5 | Under |
| Houston Astros | 96.5 | Under |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 96.5 | Over |
| Miami Marlins | 64.5 | Under |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 84.5 | Under |
| Minnesota Twins | 82.5 | Over |
| New York Mets | 81.5 | Under |
| New York Yankees | 94.5 | Over |
| Oakland Athletics | 74.5 | Over |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 75.5 | Over |
| San Diego Padres | 69.5 | Over |
| San Francisco Giants | 81.5 | Over |
| Seattle Mariners | 81.5 | Over |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 85.5 | Over |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 77.5 | Under |
| Texas Rangers | 77.5 | Under |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 81.5 | Under |
| Washington Nationals | 92.5 | Over |
Total investment: $14.00
Out of the 28 bets, I'm not sure what my thinking was picking the over 16 times. At this moment, only seven teams are going to hit for me.
| Team | O/U Line | Projected Final Win Total* | Difference | My Bet |
| Oakland Athletics | 74.5 | 93 | 18.5 | Over |
| Boston Red Sox | 91.5 | 110 | 18.5 | Over |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 75.5 | 88 | 12.5 | Over |
| Seattle Mariners | 81.5 | 91 | 9.5 | Over |
| New York Yankees | 94.5 | 100 | 5.5 | Over |
| Colorado Rockies | 82.5 | 86 | 3.5 | Over |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 85.5 | 87 | 1.5 | Over |
| Chicago Cubs | 94.5 | 94 | -0.5 | Over |
| San Francisco Giants | 81.5 | 80 | -1.5 | Over |
| Anaheim Angels | 84.5 | 81 | -3.5 | Over |
| San Diego Padres | 69.5 | 65 | -4.5 | Over |
| Minnesota Twins | 82.5 | 77 | -5.5 | Over |
| Chicago White Sox | 68.5 | 62 | -6.5 | Over |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 96.5 | 89 | -7.5 | Over |
| Washington Nationals | 92.5 | 84 | -8.5 | Over |
| Baltimore Orioles | 73 | 53 | -20 | Over |
Boston Red Sox are having a season for the ages, but it's also pretty amazing on how well Oakland is faring compared to what Vegas thought before the year started. For those White Sox fans still searching for hope for a contender in 2019, the Philadelphia Phillies are a team you can draw from as they are expected to go over by a dozen games in 2018. I thought going over on Seattle's 81.5 was a bit risky as I thought they were going to fall in the 80 to 83 wins range in 2018. Going off Pythagorean W-L, the Mariners should have a winning percentage of .484 or a team on pace to win just 78 games in 2018. Instead, the Mariners are projected to win 91 games, and because life has a weird sense of humor, they would miss the postseason. Continuing the longest postseason drought for any North American professional sports team. Amazing.
The Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants could help change my fortunes with the over bets. Kind of weird to say that the best record in the National League is projected for only be 94 wins, but the Cubs are even as they're still not firing on all cylinders. Yet, they are head and shoulders above everyone else in the National League. I didn't think San Francisco was going to be a playoff team in 2018, but I figured with the off-season moves they would finish a few games above .500. If both can find some additional wins in the remaining six weeks, I could finish ahead with my over bets.
I'm not holding out for a hope that Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers get hot in September. Minnesota, in my opinion, has blown a great opportunity in 2018 of winning the AL Central due to the dread combination of injuries and underachieving performances. Then there is Baltimore. Man, what a dumpster fire.
Looking at my under bets, I'm having a bit more success.
| Team | O/U Line | Projected Final Win Total* | Difference | My Bet |
| Atlanta Braves | 74 | 88 | 14 | Under |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 77.5 | 81 | 3.5 | Under |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 84.5 | 88 | 3.5 | Under |
| Houston Astros | 96.5 | 100 | 3.5 | Under |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 85.5 | 88 | 2.5 | Under |
| Miami Marlins | 64.5 | 63 | -1.5 | Under |
| Cleveland Indians | 94.5 | 93 | -1.5 | Under |
| Detroit Tigers | 68.5 | 66 | -2.5 | Under |
| Cincinnati Reds | 73.5 | 70 | -3.5 | Under |
| Texas Rangers | 77.5 | 72 | -5.5 | Under |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 81.5 | 75 | -6.5 | Under |
| New York Mets | 81.5 | 72 | -9.5 | Under |
I wasn't expecting the Atlanta Braves to be this successful in 2018. Figured that they were still a year away from their farm system bearing fruit, but there they are battling with the Philadelphia Phillies for a division crown. I've been impressed by Tampa Bay this season for finding new, creative ways to win games.
Two teams that I think are running out of gas are Milwaukee and Houston. The news that Jimmy Nelson is most likely not going to return in 2018 is significant bad news for the Brewers. A team that is already lacking in starting pitching now won't get one of their best performing starters back. Then again, instead of focusing on improving on this issue the Brewers doubled down on offense at the trade acquiring Mike Moustakas and Jonathan Schoop. Weeks later, I'm still confused by those moves. The Houston Astros are a battled tested group, but the longer Jose Altuve is on the disabled list, the longer Oakland and Seattle are going to be breathing down their necks in the standings. I figured that the World Series hangover effect would keep Houston below winning 95 games before the year started, and I still feel that's where they will end up.
For some dumb reason I picked the Blue Jays to finish second in the AL East in March, but a month before that pick I had them under 81.5 wins, so I'm not giving myself a pat on the back for mixed signals. The Mets are having a season as the 2016 White Sox did. I was sweating when they started 11-1, but it's clear they don't have a strong enough supporting cast around Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard to be a contender.
With six weeks remaining, I'm 14-14 with my preseason picks hoping that the Cubs and Giants find a way to go over pushing me to 16-12.
