Adam Engel received 463 plate appearances in 2018, and a lot had to go wrong to make it possible. Ryan Cordell broke his collarbone in April, throwing the rest of his season off course. Leury Garcia struggled to stay off the disabled list for smaller reasons. Trayce Thompson hasn't been the same since his back injury in 2016, and was the least productive of all White Sox this season. Charlie Tilson, ironically, was the healthiest, but didn't distinguish himself over 108 games between Charlotte and Chicago.
And yet it could've been worse because Engel technically improved:
- 2017: .166/.235/.282
- 2018: .235/.279/.336
The latter line represents a significant reduction in his strikeout rate (35 to 28 percent), and a more normal BABIP (.245 to .322). It came at some cost -- the improved contact played a part of his walk rate dropping from 5.7 percent to 3.9 percent, and his ISO from .116 to .100. Still, it's fair to say that Engel had to improve his hit tool above all else, and that he did.
There still isn't a major league hitter here. His best month in terms of OPS was August, when he hit .276/.284/.448 with zero walks to 28 strikeouts over 88 plate appearances, capping off a stretch where he drew two walks over three months. To answer Michael Wagner's question from Patreon, I don't know how he gets to average from here without insane BABIP luck or milking more out of his defense.
And he's doing about all he can in the latter department, as his work in center culminated in a great honor Thursday:
Yes, Adam Engel is a Gold Glove finalist, so all those starts weren't for naught. Even if he's likely to finish behind Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mike Trout in voting, his being here represents the major improvement in Gold Glove selection since the Society for Baseball Research was invited into the process and made the SABR Defensive Index part of the process.
Engel isn't the only one to get a boost from the data over reputation. Remember when Marcus Semien and Clayton Richard both struggled to throw to first? Now they're both Gold Glove finalists! Semien's turnaround in particular has been a massive triumph, both for himself and the Athletics. Oakland had the league's worst defense in 2017, and now they have finalists at all four infield positions, if you're looking for ways to get back to .500.
Specific to Engel's situation, In fact, if you only use SDI, Engel could be the front-runner. SABR won't release the final 2018 rankings until after the awards are handed out, but the last list from mid-August shows Engel trailing only Leonys Martin on the leaderboard, and Martin's season ended on Aug. 7 due to a life-threatening bacterial infection. Bradley was running fourth, and Trout seventh.
The metrics are split on this final field.
Ultimate Zone Rating: Has Bradley in front at 7.4, with Trout at 5.0 and Engel at -0.6 (mostly due to his arm).
Defensive Runs Saved: Has Trout leading with 8, with Engel at 1 and Bradley at 0.
Outs Above Average: Statcast's go-to metric has Engel atop the American League at 17, with Bradley at 11 and Trout at 8.
So Engel theoretically has as much a shot as the other two, although it's hard to imagine him keeping his head above water in the part that comes down to votes. He's just simply not as popular, which poses a problem when Bradley and Trout are also great.
Engel did what he could for voters, condensing a year's worth of home run robberies into the span of a single week ...
... but he did get off a slow start defensively, and the seven errors stand out against Bradley (three) and Trout (zero). The error column is often an unfair way to judge a defender, but I'd call it fair to say it took Engel a couple months to get his route-running up to Gold Glove standards, and given the quality of competition and the deficit in name recognition/baseball accomplishments, he might have needed to go 6-for-6.
But again, considering Engel's 19th-round origin story and his limitations as a hitter, the fact that he has a legit chance at hardware represents an accomplishment. And while most of our offseason plans have found ways to supplant him in center, hopefully he can find himself on a roster that maximizes his skills while minimizing his liabilities, because the glove plays anywhere.
