The decision whether to tend Avisail Garcia might be the biggest battleground in the Offseason Plan Project. Watching that column has been like watching election night results roll in, with various precincts allowing one side to get on a little run before another cluster cancels it out.
Right now, the "non-tender" faction is winning by the slimmest of majorities, with 42 out of 86 plans. But if you assessed it only by final rosters, "non-tender" would win the plurality easily over "tender and keep" and "tender and trade," so Garcia doesn't really have a vote of confidence among the Sox Machine GMs. (This has been updated after updating the offseason plan tracker.)
That part seems to extend to reality, at least according to MLB.com's Mark Feinsand:
According to a source, the White Sox are actively trying to trade Avisail Garcia. There’s a sense within the industry that Chicago will non-tender Garcia if they’re unable to deal him.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) November 13, 2018
Brian Cashman raised the bar for candor when it comes to discussing expensive arb-eligible players who aren't in the team's plans. Regarding Sonny Gray, Cashman told the New York Post last week:
“We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in The Bronx,” Cashman told me Monday at the GM Meetings. “I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results.”
Cashman said that he has received a lot of interest in Gray, enough to feel confident a trade is available. The Yankees GM said, “There are enough teams that think highly enough of him, that are interested and understand why [Gray pitched poorly].”
The latter paragraph is why Cashman can speak so openly. The acknowledgment maybe puts a little bit of a dent in his leverage, but enough teams would enjoy tinkering with Gray as opposed to overinvesting in 30something starting pitcher, so he should generate some interest, even if it results in a prospect years away from the majors at best.
With Garcia, I think everybody here sees the difficulty in marketing. It'd be one thing if he had the big steps back in his OBP and strikeout rates, or if he had another year abbreviated by injuries. The combination makes it harder for a team to think they can come out ahead on an $8 million or so investment. Even if he's good, he might get hurt.
So the White Sox are relegated to this traditional form of shopping for something. The timing of this report registered to me as potentially related to Ken Rosenthal's report from a couple days ago about the Astros' supposed interest:
After learning they could not land Harper, the Astros put together another trade that would have sent right-hander Francis Martes to the Chicago White Sox for outfielder Avisaíl García, sources said. That deal failed to come to fruition when the Astros expressed concern over the condition of García’s right knee.
García, a right-handed hitter, would play the rest of the season, but batted only .197 with a .631 OPS in the final two months and underwent arthroscopic surgery on his knee on Oct. 2. Martes had Tommy John surgery on Aug. 15, but the White Sox were aware of his condition at the time the deal was discussed, sources said.
If you didn't read the Patreon-exclusive P.O. Sox mailbag, what jumped out to me was a team as data-dependent as the Astros having an interest in Garcia, given his obvious shortcomings in the more projectable, reliable stats. Maybe it was the improved power to the pull side that truly caught their eye, but however it happened, a Garcia-Martes deal -- even if a swap for damaged goods -- is flattering on the Sox' side, so it's worth trying to capitalize on that thought.
It's also not a bad thought to plant in the head of White Sox fans, especially those who are ready for the Sox to pursue bigger and better things. Based on Garcia's first six seasons with the White Sox, it might be most fair to hang your expectations on whichever outcome would be the most frustrating. This method results in two outcomes:
- The White Sox retain Garcia, and he has another year like 2018.
- The White Sox let Garcia go for no significant return, and he has a 2017 season for another club.
Both are forehead-slappers, but the latter is more defensible, because even a 2017-like season has limited benefits for the White Sox. Maybe it nets a really intriguing prospect at the deadline, or maybe it results in the qualifying offer being worth handing out, but, again, truly positive outcomes run afoul of this model. If Garcia is designed to confound your best attempt at decision-making, retaining him would only really result in running out the clock.
