The White Sox had a busy week, and with Manny Machado meeting at Guaranteed Rate Field today, let's take this time to answer some questions before a potential signing -- or lack thereof -- changes the complexion of the offseason.
As always, thank you for supporting Sox Machine.
From orajestad9 ...
With Rodon, Nova, Lopez, Giolito and ? in the fold for the rotation what should the Sox do to shore it up?
... and Andrew Segall:
If the Sox fail to sign Machado or Harper, what meaningful FA options remain for this off-season?
Tackling these questions together since my answers have a lot of overlap, it seems like the White Sox are indeed adhering to "go big or go home" this winter. One year of Ivan Nova. One year of James McCann. One year of Yonder Alonso (with an option). At this point, it would seem weird to go three years for Michael Brantley or Dallas Keuchel, as watchable as that might make them.
While I have problems with the Alonso deal, I get what it accomplishes overall -- improving the MLB product in a way that doesn't tie up the big picture and also alleviates minor-league gluts. Alex Call didn't have a place in Birmingham's outfield or the 40-man roster following the season, so he was expendable. The Sox may have another one of these moves in them, provided that Call is the best prospect they give up when helping another team's books.
I think if the Sox go back into the pool, it'll be for more one-year deals. The starting pitching pool seems to have a lot of placeholder guys (Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, Wade Miley, etc.). Similarly, if the Mike Moustakas deal from last winter becomes available this time around, I wonder if the Sox would take a crack at improving their third base the same way they improved DH -- raising the floor, if not the ceiling.
Now, let's get into some fears:
From David Imbordino:
Do you have any nervousness that if the Sox sign Bryce Harper, his success in the American League won't be as great as his time in the NL? There seems to be a number of instances where players don't perform as well when making the switch, to include some moves the Sox made with previous players for the Nationals!
Not really, just because of his age. A 26-year-old Harper with a 10-WAR season in his history isn't a 30something Adam Dunn or Adam LaRoche. In terms of age, Harper is closer to NL-to-AL success stories like Adam Eaton and Carlos Quentin.
Harper broke in so early that he doesn't have much in the way of peers, but there are a couple other outfielders who come to mind. Dexter Fowler took his game to a new level in his one season with the Astros at age 28 after spending his first six seasons with the Rockies.
There's also Justin Upton, who jumped to the AL at 28 aftr spending his first nine seasons on the NL. He had an atrocious first couple of months, but steadied himself in June before exploding in September. He's been an above-average contributor and worth the money since.
My more specific concern about Harper is his knee, and whether the three injury-shortened seasons make his body older than its listed age.
From Trooper Galactus:
If the White Sox whiff on major additions to their roster, do you get the sense that, even with the pending arrival of Eloy, we could be looking at another 100-loss season? Just feels like the front office is relying rather heavily on guys like Moncada and Giolito taking big steps forward in 2019 right now.
I should hope not, because the big picture counts on these players taking big steps forward. When the Astros lost 100 games in consecutive seasons in 2013, they only had one fixture in place in the lineup (Jose Altuve) and rotation (Keuchel). The 2013 Cubs only had Anthony Rizzo the full season.
In contrast, the White Sox will have Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Carlos Rodon and -- quad willing -- Eloy Jimenez. If they lose 100 games yet again, that paints a much darker picture of the rebuild, because it'll get harder to count on much of an impact from the first wave.
I think the bigger danger with the rebuild is not a 100-loss bad, but a Royals-like timeline where nothing coalesces in the first two years of introducing farm products, resulting in 70-win seasons with no sense of traction. That'll put the White Sox in their old/weak position of trying to find veteran upgrades, which is what the rebuild was designed to avoid.
In all cases, I think we'll have a much better idea of where the rebuild stands after Jimenez makes his debut. It's hard to not treat him like a savior, because the White Sox desperately need somebody who makes the game look easy and fun.
And from David again:
With the signing of Yonder Alonso, do you think Abreu or Palka will get traded?
I don't think so, partially because of the depth chart, partially because of trade value, partially because of signals.
Abreu is a fixture, of course, but the White Sox made room for Alonso with their non-tendering of Matt Davidson and Avisail Garcia. Alonso takes one of those spots, and the other one is probably earmarked for Jimenez. Palka is on hte outside looking in, big picture.
Given Jimenez’s injury issues, though, it seems worthwhile to have a MLB-caliber corner bat around, and I’d put Palka in front of Nicky Delmonico there. The 10 walks in September gives him the hint of an added dimension, although there’s a lot of noise when expanded rosters come around. Palka can also be optioned if need be.
Regarding their trade value, the Sox didn’t seriously consider moving Abreu last year when he had more going for him – a power resurgence and two years of team control. Now he has one market-priced year left, and it’s after a year where he was only ordinary. A couple of intimate issues got in the way of his second-half rebound, but still. Palka led rookies with 27 homers, but the sub-.300 OBP and lack of position spell future complications for any team.
But there’s a chance that Palka’s power is so … powerful that it wouldn’t take much improvement for him to be eminently playable, and a team besides the Sox might want to get in on that. The Sox have sold high on guys like Omar Narvaez, Tommy Kahnle and Trayce Thompson, so trading Palka after a fun year is well within their history.
With Abreu, there’s more to counter it. You can’t rule it out, but it’d be strange to clear the trade with Abreu when acquiring Alonso, make it known through Bob Nightengale that they aren’t going to move Abreu, only to move Abreu. I think there’s too much respect for Abreu to do that, and the return for Abreu wouldn’t stand up on its own to explain such a reversal.
