Following up on the P.O. Sox mailbag from last week, the White Sox added another analytics mind to their development staff:
Between Ryan Johansen and Matt Lisle, the White Sox are making big strides in marrying data with development.
Now, onto this week's questions, starting with this one from Asinwreck:
How crazy would it be to offer both Machado and Harper 1-year, $40 million deals right now? How crazy would it be for either Machado or Harper to accept?
I think it'd be crazier to accept than to offer, at least in the case of Machado. With Harper, a fully healthy season with improved defense could end the first base talk and return him to the market good as new, and he couldn't be tagged with the qualifying offer again. It'd be kinda like an opt-out after the first year, so there are some advantages. If a team wanted his services for immediate help without long-term luxury tax implications, they could benefit from such a short marriage.
With Machado, chances are he'd get tagged with the qualifying offer, and he'd have Nolan Arenado on the market as a direct competitor as well. He can't really have a better season than the one he had last year, and concerns about his makeup will be wielded just as readily.
I could maybe see the market loosening a little as more teams try to power out of the rebuild phase, but not enough to think the shape of the offseason will change. By holding out until mid-January, they're already doing the hard work, so I doubt either would want to subject themselves to it again.
From Mark Jontry:
Sonny Gray…worth pursuing if F.O. thinks Coop’ll fix depending on the prospects going back?
He's worth pursuing if the acquisition cost is similar to that of Ivan Nova, who is projected to offer the same value for a similar price for one season. The Yankees aren't always looking to offload money the way the Pirates are, though, so I imagine it'd take more than Yordi Rosario, or maybe even an Alex Call, to get Gray.
There are still too many competent starters on the free agent market (Gio Gonzalez, Ervin Santana) to make a more concerted effort for Gray when he's a free agent after the season. If they like him enough, they can try to make a run at him when he's a free agent. With Dallas Keuchel still looking for a home, it's not a great time to be a starter without super stuff.
From Chef Eric:
If Machado gets signed with the White Sox, what does the infield look like in 2020/2021?
With Jose Abreu in his last arbitration year and Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada failing to establish themselves as lockdown middle infielders, there's a lot to chew on here, and I may revisit this in a spinoff post in March.
I'll go with the most direct path, because even that one is rather murky after the season. That path involves Machado playing a Gold Glove-caliber third base and Anderson discovering a reliable identify as a glove-first shortstop with athleticism to pull off cool things offensively from time to time.
But what of the right side? I'm not inclined to start penciling Nick Madrigal into any 2020 plans, because Zack Collins and Jake Burger have shown the folly of attempting to establish firm timelines before a first full pro season, at least aggressive ones. That being said, I think it's better to put Madrigal on a 2021 track. Until then, Moncada will get 2019 to display any progress, and if there isn't, maybe he's shifted to the outfield for 2020, replaced by a stopgap type that Madrigal can usurp without issues if he's dictating the events.
At first, Yonder Alonso is insurance should Jose Abreu look elsewhere 2019, but Abreu likes the White Sox, the Sox think the world of Abreu, and it's not like it's a great time to be a free agent on the other side of 30. I can see a two-year deal getting worked out after the season.
If that doesn't happen, the in-house options are thin without position changes, because Gavin Sheets is next in line after Alonso, and Birmingham isn't the easiest place for a guy to show pro-ball power for the first time. However, if the White Sox find themselves with too many qualified outfielders, first base might be a pressure valve for Eloy Jimenez. If the Sox need Jimenez in the outfield and want to see what Collins can do without being responsible for a pitching staff, that's another option.
(If the White Sox draft somebody like Cal's Andrew Vaughn with the third pick in the upcoming draft, they might have him in mind for 2021. Again, I'd caution about the Sox' history with fast-track candidates stumbling over the first hurdle or two.)
