While pitchers and catchers get back to their routines at spring training, the 2019 college baseball season begins today. So does our 2019 MLB draft coverage, as we will be tracking the progress of targeted college players, highlighting the prep showcases and tournaments, and writing up draft reports on who we think could be targeted by the Chicago White Sox with the third overall pick. It's also exciting for me because the 2019 season will be my first as a member of the National College Baseball Writers Association.
To help get ready for the season, here are the four story lines I'll be tracking until June.
No. 1: Can Adley Rutschman live up to expectations?
Oregon State's Adley Rutschman, the consensus No. 1 2019 MLB draft prospect, has a high bar to reach after how he performed last season. The catcher set a College World Series record with 17 hits and drove in 13 runs to help the Beavers win their third championship.
I can understand if Rutschman doesn't hit .408/.505/.628 in 2019 because that slash line is absurd. I'm not expecting Rutschman to drive in 83 runs as he did in 2018 because he doesn't have Nick Madrigal and Trevor Larnach in the lineup. If he doesn't match his 2018 numbers, will his draft stock take a hit? As long as it's not a drastic drop I don't think it should. Rutschman has already demonstrated he can hit.
What I'm expecting to see from Rutschman in 2019 is balanced power from both sides of the plate. He also blocks and frames well. It just would be nice if Oregon State allowed Rutschman to call games. That's the key difference between Rutschman and Joey Bart, who was selected second overall by the San Francisco Giants in the 2018 Draft. Bart called his own games at Georgia Tech, and that skill will help him immensely in the minors. If Rutschman doesn't call pitches, that will be a skill he'll have to learn after he's drafted -- one that could decide how quickly Rutschman rises through the minors.
No. 2: Finally, a good class of shortstops
A great thing about college and prep shortstops is their athleticism. If for whatever reason they don't show enough arm strength, range, or soft hands to stick at the position in high minors or the majors, teams can move these players around the field. For example, the Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun was a shortstop at the University of Miami.
Recently, there has been a lack of depth for draft-eligible shortstops. That won't be the case this year, as I count eight possible shortstops could be selected in the first round: Bobby Witt (HS), CJ Abrams (HS), Bryson Stott (UNLV), Braden Shewmake (Texas A&M), Will Holland (Auburn), Will Wilson (NC State), Logan Davidson (Clemson), and Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington).
Which of these shortstops emerge as the best will be a fun story to follow in 2019. There might be an opportunity for someone outside of these eight that can find themselves in the first round, or better, a top-10 pick.
No. 3: Who will bring the power?
Cal's Andrew Vaughn, the 2018 Golden Spikes winner, is already getting a lot of hype before the season begins. Last year, Vaughn hit .402/.531/.819 with 23 home runs. What will Vaughn do for an encore in 2019?
The mighty Vaughn isn't alone in the power department. North Carolina's Michael Busch has 55-grade power and is expected to have a big 2019 season. Matt Wallner from Southern Miss has been on my radar the last two years with 35 home runs in his college career. The best third baseman in this draft class, Texas Tech's Josh Jung, hit 17 doubles and 12 home runs in 2018. How big of a jump will we see from Jung in his junior year?
Then there are two prep power bats to track: Riley Greene and Reece Hinds. I witnessed Greene's power in-person during the Under Armour Showcase at Wrigley Field this summer. Greene crushed a breaking pitch for a big home run.
I was told by scouts at the showcase that Hinds has the most power out of all prospect bats, but his lack of contact is a bit concerning. He'll be playing at the IMG Academy this spring to shore up that part of his game.
No. 4: Who will emerge as the best starting pitchers?
I'm not a fan of this year's starting pitching class. The top three starters on my list have major red flags that need to be addressed this season.
- Carter Stewart (Eastern Florida State JC) : Issue - Health. Stewart was selected by his hometown Braves with the eighth pick last season, but didn't sign due to a wrist issue that led the Braves to lower their bonus offer. Will Stewart hold up in 2019? We know his velocity is impressive and the spin rates are off-the-charts absurd. If Stewart can ease health doubts, I think he's a top-10 pick.
- Zack Thompson (Kentucky): Issue - Health. How is his elbow? I like Thompson's arsenal of a 93-95 mph fastball, a plus slider, and a changeup. SEC is always a gauntlet for pitchers, but if Thompson can perform and prove he's fully healthy, he'll be a first-round pick.
- Graeme Stinson (Duke): Issue - Endurance. There has been a lot of preseason love for Stinson, who possesses a plus-plus slider and a fastball with excellent velocity to it (92-95 mph). When I watched Duke last year, Stinson mostly came out of the bullpen, and I wonder if he has the necessary endurance to be a starter. Stinson is currently a two-pitch pitcher who is working on a changeup. I'm sure he'll post good college numbers (strikeout rate was best in NCAA), but if Stinson is being sold as a starting pitcher, we need to see him pitch consistently five to six innings per appearance.
Games I Have Circled on the Calendar
- UNLV vs. Stanford - Feb. 22 to 24
- Texas Tech vs. Kentucky - Feb. 22 to 24
- North Carolina vs. Clemson - March 8-10
- Cal vs. LSU - March 8-10
- Oregon State vs. UCLA - March 15-17
- Oregon State vs. Cal - March 22-24
- Southern Miss vs. Ole Miss - April 9 and May 1
- Cal vs. UCLA - April 18-20
- Florida vs. LSU - April 18-20
- Kentucky vs. Arkansas - May 3-5
- TCU vs. Texas Tech - May 16-18
Top 10 2019 MLB Draft Prospects 1.0
I'm not doing mock drafts for 2019 as I think it will be more beneficial to have a power rankings list of who is performing well during the season. There will be periodic updates every month leading up to draft day in June.
Without further ado, here is the first release:
- Adley Rutschman, Catcher, Oregon State
- Bobby Witt Jr., Shortstop, Colleyville Heritage (HS)
- CJ Abrams, Shortstop, Blessed Trinity Catholic (HS)
- Andrew Vaughn, First Base, Cal
- Josh Jung, Third Base, Texas Tech
- Riley Greene, Left Field, Hagerty High (HS)
- Bryson Stott, Shortstop, UNLV
- Corbin Carroll, Center Field, Lakeside (HS)
- Carter Stewart, Starting Pitcher, Eastern Florida State (JC)
- Matt Wallner, Right Field, Southern Miss
College World Series Pick: LSU vs. UCLA
