After analyzing the league trend in first-round picks, there are more surprises when breaking down the data by team. Looking at selections from 1994 to 2018 you can get a clear sense regarding which teams prefer college or prep players.
College heavy teams
- Oakland Athletics: 36 out of 44 first-round picks
- Chicago White Sox: 28 out of 37 first-round picks
- St. Louis Cardinals: 28 out of 45 first-round picks
High School heavy teams
- Atlanta Braves: 30 out of 37 first round picks
- Miami Marlins: 23 out of 31 first round picks
- Philadelphia Phillies: 19 out of 28 first round picks
Even though these teams are heavy on the college class of prospects, their success rates are better on the other side. Especially the Oakland Athletics and Atlanta Braves.
Best % of College Players Reaching Majors
- Los Angeles Angels: 91.67% success
- San Francisco Giants: 86.36% success
- Atlanta Braves: 85.71% success
Best % of High School Players Reaching Majors
- Oakland Athletics: 87.50% success
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 77.78% success
- Arizona Diamondbacks: 71.43% success
Seven teams have a success rate of 80 percent or better in having their draft picks of college players reaching the majors (Nationals/Expos, Red Sox, Rangers, Rockies). Only the Los Angeles Dodgers have a rate worse than break-even with their their college selections reaching the majors (currently 33 percent).
Flipping over to high school prospects, and half the league is batting lower than .500. Eight teams can't even crack 40 percent. It’s undoubtedly eye-opening how poor of a job that half a league does in getting high school selections to stick.
Getting to the majors is one thing, but having those players excel when they get there is a different story. Not every team sees their draft picks rack up wins for them. Often selections get traded away and become successful elsewhere. Scouting departments should still get credit because their reports saying these prospects can be successful major leaguers one day became true.
Using WAR from baseball-reference.com (bWAR), total WAR was added for teams draft picks to determine who has been the most successful, and not successful, over the last 25 MLB drafts.
Highest bWAR From First Round Picks
Oakland Athletics: 224.7 bWAR
A front office that deals with penny-pinching owners need to succeed in the draft room and Oakland has with 10 selections earning more than 10+ bWAR in their careers. Most recent success stories include Matt Chapman, Addison Russell (traded to Cubs), Sonny Gray (now with Reds), Matt Olson, and Cliff Pennington. We can’t forget Billy Beane and his scouts striking gold Eric Chavez, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito in the late ’90s. Never afraid to take risks, the Athletics patiently are waiting to see if they will lose 2018 first round pick Kyler Murray to the NFL Draft.
Toronto Blue Jays: 215.7 bWAR
Just like the Athletics, the Blue Jays had a great run of first round picks in the ’90s starting with now Hall-of-Famer Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells, and Alex Rios. Aaron Hill was drafted in 2003 and had a good career clocking in at 23.7 bWAR. Lately, Toronto’s success has been finding pitchers in the first round. In another dimension, the Blue Jays would have signed James Paxton, not traded Noah Syndergaard, and would have paired those two with Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman. The next budding pitcher could be 2017 first round pick, Nate Pearson.
Los Angeles Angels - 203.5 bWAR
To say Mike Trout was a good find would be quite the understatement. The best player in all of MLB has already accumulated 64.3 bWAR, and at the age of 27, could reach 100+ bWAR before his career is over. The Angels have also unearthed three 30+ bWAR players in Jered Weaver (2004 draft), Troy Glaus (1997 draft), and Darin Erstad (1995 draft). They might have another one waiting in the wings with Jo Adell garnering a lot of attention in prospect rankings. Only 19 years old, Adell played in three levels in 2018 (A, A+, and AA) hitting 20 home runs and 32 doubles.
Lowest bWAR From First Round Picks
Chicago White Sox - 113.9 bWAR
Since 1994, only three first-rounders selected by the White Sox have accumulated more than 10+ bWAR in their careers: Aaron Rowand, Gio Gonzalez, and Chris Sale. Rowand was part of a core that helped bring a World Series championship to the South Side in 2005, Chris Sale’s dominance was wasted and leveraged in a deal with Boston to begin the team’s current rebuild, and Gio Gonzalez was traded twice by the Sox. After those three, the fourth highest bWAR selection is Kip Wells from 1998. Yes, Carlos Rodon (6.6 bWAR) and Tim Anderson (6.2 bWAR) are on track to be better than 10+ bWAR, and there is hope with 2018 selection, Nick Madrigal. However, Carson Fulmer (2015), Zack Collins (2016), Zack Burdi (2016), and Jake Burger (2017) have red flags that cause concern how successful (if they reach) they will be in the majors.
San Diego Padres - 71.0 bWAR
Just like the White Sox, only three Padres first-round picks have reached 10+ bWAR in their careers in Trea Turner (now with Nationals), Logan Forsythe (2008 pick), and Dustin Hermanson (1994 pick). Which is funny because the Padres have a farm system currently that many teams would be envious about. They have a terrible success rate of 33% with prep players (7-for-21) reaching the majors. Hopefully, that improves for them as MacKenzie Gore is one of the more promising left-handed starters in the minors.
New York Yankees - 53.6 bWAR
As the Padres prove, teams don’t need to draft well in the first round to have a great farm system. The New York Yankees demonstrate you can punt the MLB Draft and still come away with five World Series titles (in seven World Series appearances) the last 25 seasons. Aaron Judge has developed into a dominating force (career 13.2 bWAR) but he's the lone exception for drafted players. Out of the 13 prep players the Yankees have selected and signed since 1994, only one has reached the majors (Slade Heathcott, 2009). Just like the Padres, the Yankees top prospects are from their international signings.
