It's Prospect Week at Sox Machine.
Last year, I assessed the farm system with the way my brain naturally sorts it, categorizing by ascents, obstacles and lack of pro ball experience, among others.
The first group, defined by smooth and significant trajectories, struggled with turbulence last year. Five of the six prospects who came into 2018 with the most momentum hit major health snags to start, interrupt or end their seasons.
- Michael Kopech: Tommy John surgery
- Alec Hansen: Forearm issues
- Luis Robert: Thumb sprain, among others
- Dane Dunning: Elbow sprain
- Micker Adolfo: Tommy John surgery
Thanks to all the woes, there are only four players who enter the season with clear upward mobility this time around.
FULL SPEED AHEAD
Players who only have to prove their games hold up at the highest levels
Eloy Jimenez: The consensus top White Sox prospect could have been in the majors last July, so the only question here is how Rick Hahn will go about pretending Jimenez isn't the best and most capable outfielder in their system come Opening Day. Hahn's probably crossing his fingers that Jimenez tweaks a hamstring celebrating St. Patrick's Day, which requires a rehab stint in Charlotte just long enough to require an honest-to-goodness two-week tuneup in Triple-A. Given Jimenez's track record with minor injuries, it's not a terrible bet.
Dylan Cease: Hansen made this part of the list last year after dominating both levels of A-ball and earning a promotion to Birmingham in his first full season, and then look what happened. It's worth keeping Hansen in mind since both pitchers have had issues staying healthy. Cease powered his way into consensus top-50 status after running roughshod over the Carolina and Southern leagues. He posted a combined 2.40 ERA with 160 strikeouts to 135 baserunners over 124 innings, and his Birmingham stats were better than his Winston-Salem line.
He seems to have a better idea of what he's doing with his delivery, and also what he's supposed to be doing when it goes awry. One hopes that will enable him to get through the grinder after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2014 and suffering shoulder fatigue in 2017. It doesn't take many looks at his high-90s fastball and sharp-breaking curve to envision him starting games in Chicago after the All-Star break if this newfound durability is here to stay.
TRENDING UP
The players who cleared their biggest hurdle of 2018, with work remaining
Luis Basabe: At this time last year, it was a hope that an underwhelming first season in the White Sox organization could be pinned on a knee that required postseason surgery. After hitting .258/.354/.445 across a full, healthy season split between Winston-Salem and Birmingham, he's back to being the prospect they thought they'd extracted from the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade.
There's a lot to like about Basabe, although one of them (switch-hitting) can contribute to a longer development track. He's got 20-steal speed and 20-homer power, decent plate discipline, and he plays a legit center field. Right now, the biggest concern his that his walk and strikeout rates each veered the wrong way upon promotion to Double-A ...
- Winston-Salem: 13.9% BB, 26.1% K
- Birmingham: 11.1% BB, 28.1% K
... with his production taking a mild turn for the worse as well. However, he finished the season with a flourish, hitting .317/.391/.467 with just 15 strikeouts over his last 16 games, which was around the time he turned 22.
That's a very small sample, but there's reason to feel better about the contact, if nothing else. He had six three-strikeout games in the month of July, but only one in August and September, which also happened to be his first game of the month. Perhaps he faced a greater percentage of recently promoted pitching, allowing him to punch in his weight class, but it also wouldn't surprise me if a switch-hitter needed some time to iron out issues against higher competition.
The White Sox haven't signed a real center fielder to usurp Adam Engel (Jon Jay doesn't really count), so Basabe might be able to barge into the picture late in the season. This will be his second option year, so a call-up isn't out of the question, as it gives everybody a sense of how much work lies ahead.
Luis Gonzalez: He's done everything asked of him in his 1½ seasons in professional baseball. He owns a line of .283/.362/.447 with an 18 percent strikeout rate as an outfielder who hasn't been kicked out of center yet. The problem is that he's been in Kannapolis or lower for two-thirds of those plate appearances, the biggest victim of the Winston-Salem outfield logjam last season. That's not his fault, but it makes it hard to staple "top prospect" status to him.
The good news? He hit even better after getting the call to Winston-Salem (.313/.376/.504, 16 percent K rate), and with Alex Call traded to Cleveland, there are fewer outfielders in the way of a smoother ascent. The lack of a carrying tool may eventually bite him if his contact quality lags at higher levels. Hitting left-handed makes him better suited to the fourth-outfielder lifestyle should that be his ceiling.
Coming Tuesday: Injuries. So many injuries.
