The first three installments of Prospect Week covered roughly 30 White Sox prospects, to the degree that I had things to say about them.
Now let's add 14 more by assessing the players who have one significant obstacle to conquer before they're part of any bigger picture.
Zack Collins: Hit tool
Collins feels like the Faustian bargain to anybody who wanted the White Sox to spend a top draft pick on somebody with plate discipline already baked in. He led all of the minor leagues with 101 walks over 122 games, and he also tacked on 15 homers, a respectable showing in Birmingham. He's also thrown out about 40 percent of baserunners over the last two years.
And yet there are serious doubts about whether he'll stick in the majors. The chief flaw is that he's never hit higher than .244 in any minor league season, which doesn't bode well against MLB pitching. Yoan Moncada shows what it looks like -- some strikeouts are due to terrible zones, and other are due to not driving hittable pitches earlier in at-bats. Moncada is a .230 hitter in the majors ... but he was a .285 hitter in the minors, or 53 points higher than Collins' .232 average over a comparable amount of plate appearances.
Collins' receiving work has also been panned, a concern going all the way back to the draft. Going into another time share with Seby Zavala doesn't seem like the answer if they want to make him a catcher.
The catching is a secondary concern, as nice as it would be. Whether first base or DH, the Sox have places to move him if he could ever develop into the bat-first prospect he was supposed to be all along. Keith Law says Collins has had "one of the most bizarre pro careers of any recent first-rounder I can remember" because of the way his obvious strengths are neutralized by glaring flaws. He could be unlocked into an effective player, but how?
Seby Zavala: Triple-A production
Zavala is Collins' spiritual opposite in their climb up the ladder, because he doesn't do anything especially well or poorly. He hits for some average, some power, takes some walks, strikes out some, and he's adequate as a catcher. His work ethic and attention to detail has allowed him to beat the odds as a 12th-round pick thus far.
His rise hit a snag at Charlotte, as he hit just .242/.266/.357 with a uncharacteristic chasm between his walks (six) and strikeouts (45) over 192 plate appearances. He ran hot and cold, and the question is whether upper-level pitching or a wrist issue is more to blame. The documented physical issue in an otherwise durable history alleviates the immediate concern.
If he regains his form at Charlotte, then he has a career as a second catcher waiting for him. He has enough power to be a threat in the majors, but first he'll have to threaten Triple-A pitching his second time around.
Blake Rutherford: Power
After a disappointing pro debut split between the Yankees' and White Sox' South Atlantic League affiliates, Rutherford showed some progress in Winston-Salem. His .293/.345/.436 line accurately reflects the improvements -- the feel for hitting, the uptick in extra-base hits.
Plenty of work remains. He's a corner outfielder -- and probably a left fielder -- so he'll have to keep digging to get at that power, especially when he leaves Winston-Salem's cozy ballpark for Birmingham's expansive one. Law said it's about his legs: "He makes plenty of contact but doesn't use his lower half well, so the ball seems to go nowhere off his bat -- it's noticeably quiet even when he squares something up."
Rutherford might be the reason the White Sox hired Matt Lisle to the newly minted role of hitting analytics instructor.
Gavin Sheets: Power
OK, Sheets might be another reason the White Sox hired Lisle. When you look at his build and his swing, you think "25 homers, easy." Instead, he's hit just 10 over his first 175 games, including six at Winston-Salem last season. The knocks on Rutherford's power are well known, and Rutherford outslugged him.
If Sheets could somehow add 25-homer power without sacrificing anything from his approach, he'd be an All-Star. Even if he has to sacrifice something from his contact to enhance it, there's soom room to give. He hit .293/.368/.407 with a 16 percent strikeout rate, so he might be comfortable enough to trade swings and misses for better contact. He said that he went through a transformation in his junior year at Wake Forest as he got the sense he could hit in Division I, so maybe another third-year leap is on the way
Kodi Medeiros: Role
Medeiros had a decent year in the Southern League, setting career bests in ERA (3.60), innings (138) and strikeouts (141). He also set a career high with 67 walks. He's devastating against lefties, but a three-quarters slot is problematic against righties, and the walks might be the result of attempting to mitigate the long look those hitters get.
The White Sox have plenty of other bullpen lefties, so they can devote more time and resources to starting Medeiros if they'd like in hopes of maximizing their return from the Joakim Soria trade. Right now, such hopes would probably be in vain.
Jordan Stephens: Role
Stephens finally hit a wall in 2019. After succeeding with relative ease against younger competition at lower levels, Stephens had to work to get through five innings at Charlotte. He posted a 4.71 ERA at Triple-A, with his strikeout and walk rates narrowing and his low ground-ball rate biting him more frequently.
If he comes back a little wiser for the wear, he could end up snagging a few spot starts for the White Sox. But just like Medeiros, if the White Sox want to get more than adequate, occasional starts, a re-routing to the bullpen could be in order. The White Sox added him to the 40-man roster, so that suggests they have a plan in mind.
Bernardo Flores: Oomph
While teammate Dylan Cease absorbed most of the coverage in Winston-Salem and Birmingham, Flores carried a heavier workload. He threw 156 innings over his 25 starts between the two levels, and was highly effective in terms of run prevention (2.65 ERA).
Flores throws a lot of strikes (31 walks). He doesn't miss a lot of bats (105 strikeouts). He's got a kitchen sink approach he developed while surviving a big drop in velocity in 2017, so he's shown an ability to adjust to the competition. The fastball is back into the low-90's, and with life that reversed the slide in his grounder rate, increasing his margin for error. Lefty starters can get by in ways that righty starters can't, and Flores will test those bounds.
Spencer Adams: Oomph
Adams is here to show you what Flores' career looks like for a right-hander. He's topped 150 innings in each of the last two seasons despite lagging strikeout rates, but it results in more walks, more homers and a higher ERA.
Adams had massive problems missing bats -- the 11.3 percent strikeout rate is a big issue when it isn't attached to a power sinker -- and it doesn't seem like he can gain velocity in shorter stints, so "crafty righty starter" seems like the only way he can get to the majors. The White Sox protected Stephens over Adams in the Rule 5 draft, which is one indication of which pitcher the club thinks can provide more value.
Lincoln Henzman: Track record
Henzman has a sinker, which alleviates some of the threat from the rather low strikeout total at Winston-Salem (80 over 107 innings). The White Sox' fourth-round pick was also stretching out to starting after closing for Louisville in college, so getting deeper into games might've been his first priority.
It worked. He posted a 2.35 ERA over 27 games, and he probably could have thrown 120-130 innings if the Sox didn't make the deliberate decision to govern his workload after a promotion to Winston-Salem.
His game plan seems clear -- dependent on sinkers, allergic to walks -- but we'll get a much clearer idea on his path upward when he's back to pitching without restrictions.
Laz Rivera: Plate discipline
Rivera's a .309/.365/.471 hitter in pro ball since the White Sox selected him out of the University of Tampa in the 28th round in 2017. He's been a little older than the competition the whole time, which is one caveat. He's also drawn just 21 walks over 171 games, which is the larger one.
He's an average-dependent player, and that average went from .346 in Kannapolis to .280 in Winston-Salem. He's shown enough power to make the approach interesting, especially for a shortstop, but it's one that has a hard time succeeding at higher levels. There's no rush to judgment, because look at...
Danny Mendick: Chances
Before Rivera, Mendick was the older-than-the-level, third-day shortstop pick that forced his way onto radars. He's still hanging in there, batting .247/.340/.395 with 14 homers and 20 steals during his age-24 season at Birmingham. He has no obvious weaknesses and plays all around the infield. The problem? He also doesn't have a carrying tool, and the White Sox have two or three other utility infielders ahead of him with Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Rondon and Leury Garcia. It seems like his best opportunity will have to come elsewhere.
Luis Curbelo: Reps
Luis Curbelo, the Sox' lone prep pick over the first two days of the 2016 draft, bounced back from a knee injury that wiped out his 2017 season by playing 83 games in Kannapolis.
The fact that he returned to regular action trumped his pedestrian production (.237/.282/.338), but now it'll be time to show something. There should be more power in that profile, for starters.
An odd wrinkle: His defense smoothed out after going from third base (10 errors over 20 games) to shortstop (14 errors over 57 games).
Amado Nunez: Track record
Outside of Bryce Bush, Nunez might've been the biggest surprise for the White Sox in rookie ball. After three seasons of mediocre-at-best production, the 20-year-old Nunez hit .357/.394/.568 over 60 games at Great Falls.
There are major caveats, like the 15 walks to 71 strikeouts, and the potentially combustible combination of repeated exposure to low-level stateside pitching and an offense-friendly Pioneer League. He's also slid down the defensive spectrum, from shortstop to third base to second base, and he also made eight appearances at first.
However, the White Sox did sign him for a $900,000 bonus out of the Dominican Republic in 2014, so maybe some of that initial talent is starting to come together. There will be more eyes on him in Kannapolis, so April and May should paint a clearer picture.
Corey Zangari: Health
One bad break followed another for Zangari. After losing all of 2017 to Tommy John surgery, he was limited to just 18 games in 2018 after a pitch broke his hand on July 20.
That pitch came in his second plate appearance in Kannapolis, which he reached after bashing his way out of Great Falls. Zangari hit .266/.329/.734 for the Voyagers. He pounded nine homers over just 17 games. He had more RBIs (22) than strikeouts (16).
Outside of a couple months of 2016, when he was overmatched as a 19-year-old in Kannapolis during the first half, Zangari has fared respectably when healthy. He just hasn't been available.
Now 22, he's still in a pretty good situation, even if he probably doesn't have time for a Curbelo-like mulligan season. All the playing time in the world is available to him, as the Sox have no other first basemen of note in A-ball, and he's also Rule 5 eligible after the season, so it's in his interest to make the most of this third chance if his body will allow it.
