Excluding the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics, tomorrow is Opening Day. Before the season begins some of us on the Sox Machine staff are foolishly trying to guess how 2019 season will unfold.
2019 Division Winners and Wild Card Teams
World Series Picks
Josh: Los Angeles Dodgers - Third time's the charm, right? With a healthy Corey Seager in tow, and adding AJ Pollock to an already loaded outfield, will help overcome the Dodgers health problems with their starting rotation. If Clayton Kershaw can shake off shoulder issues, I believe this is the year he finally gets his ring.
Greg: Houston Astros - Simply put, they're a powerhouse. The Astros won 103 games in 2018 despite down years from Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Josh Reddick -- and even then, they underperformed their Pythagorean record by six wins. They upgraded the outfield with Michael Brantley and can reasonably expect better output and better health from the four guys mentioned above, so the offense should hum again. Plus I haven't even mentioned Alex Bregman yet. The rotation looks weaker without Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers, but in a playoff series, they can lean on Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, uber-prospect Forrest Whitley, and an assortment of high-end bullpen arms. The Yankees and Red Sox are indeed threats in the AL, but New York has their pitching issues, and Boston is likely to experience some regression. And much like last year, I don't think any NL team will have a chance at the title. So Houston takes it for the second time in three years.
Ted: St. Louis Cardinals - Cardinals over Yankees in six games. While the Yankees keep their pennant streak alive (having made at least one World Series appearance in every decade back to 1910-1919), the Cardinals’ strong lineup led by Paul Goldschmidt obliterate Yankee starting pitching and bring yet another World Series championship to the Gateway to the West.
Most Valuable Player Picks
Josh: Mike Trout (AL)/ Corey Seager (NL) - I'm going to stay in the Los Angeles area for my picks. The $400 million man, Mike Trout, shockingly only has two MVP awards in his career. That seems wrong.
For the National League, I'm going with a darkhorse picking Dodgers shortstop, Corey Seager. Coming back from a significant injury that only allowed Seager to play 26 games in 2018, I think he won't miss a beat. Steamer has Seager right there with Kris Bryant and Manny Machado for Wins Above Replacement to lead the NL. Helping to lead the Dodgers to another NL West title and the best record in baseball will help cement Seager's first MVP award.
Greg: Mike Trout (AL) / Paul Goldschmidt (NL) - I doubt picking Mike Trout for MVP needs much explanation, but here it is: he's the best player in baseball by a wide margin. As for Goldschmidt, he's finished in the top-3 three times and is moving to a higher profile Cardinals club that I think is likely to outpace the competition in a tough division, which makes for a good narrative.
Ted: Mike Trout (AL)/ Ronald Acuna (NL) - Mike Trout is seemingly the favorite pick going into every season, and 2019 is no exception. One of the many fun things about Trout is that he fixes his flaws. Lay off the high fastball? Check. Improve defensive positioning and routes to the ball? Check. While I’m not sure there’s a part of his game to fix in 2019, I do think he’ll be intent on living up to (probably surpassing) his contract extension, and the road to proving that begins with yet another MVP-caliber season.
For Ronald Acuna, a couple of lines:
.249/.304/.438, 7 HR, 2 SB
.322/.403/.625, 19 HR, 14 SB
Those are Acuna’s first- and second-half splits last season. With a full year under his belt, I’m betting on Acuna trending closer to the latter line rather than the former for the entirety of the 2019 season.
Cy Young Picks
Josh: Gerrit Cole (AL)/ Max Scherzer (NL) - ZiPS likes Chris Sale and Corey Kluber more than Gerrit Cole, but I'm going to ride the wave of Cole's 2018 success and picking him to win the AL Cy Young. The transformation we've seen since departing Pittsburgh has been astounding with almost a four-strikeout per nine innings increase (8.69 K/9 in 2017; 12.40 K/9 in 2018). I expect the success to continue and Cole earning the nod over Sale. Max Scherzer is, and I have a hard time believing that Jacob deGrom can duplicate his 2018 performance.
Greg: Chris Sale (AL) / Aaron Nola (NL): I will continue to pick Chris Sale for Cy Young until he wins one or until his arm finally flies off. I'm worried at this point that he'll never get to 200 innings again with his new contract extension and the BoSox have their World Series title with him as an ace. But if he stays healthy and productive, Sale probably gets it as a "lifetime achievement" award if nothing else. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola might already have a Cy Young under his belt if he played in the AL. He finished third in NL voting last season behind Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. DeGrom is probably still the favorite if healthy, but I don't trust the Mets medical staff. And I think there's a bit of Scherzer fatigue, despite his awesomeness. Nola has youth and an exciting team on his side, so I think he has a good shot.
Ted: Chris Sale (AL) / Aaron Nola (NL): With a World Series ring obtained, and his future team and contract decided after the extension, I think Chris Sale completes the trifecta and finally nets the Cy Young that has thus far eluded him in his career. He should be relatively fresh even accounting for the postseason run –173 1/3 IP, total—and I expect him to continue the Cy Young pace he was on last season before the IL visit in late July derailed that quest.
Sox fan’s favorite pitcher to think about when imagining alternate timelines stemming from the 2014 draft, Aaron Nola had a fantastic season last year, going 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA/3.01 FIP and 10.5 bWAR. Now’s the part where I’ll acknowledge Fangraphs is a touch dourer on him (though still a ~4.5 win player). And yet, J.T. Realmuto is an upgrade over Jorge Alfaro, and the Phillies’ defense overall should be stronger this year. Nola pitched terrifically last season with an awful defense and okay catcher; the upgrades as mentioned earlier can only help his cause.
Rookie of the Year
American League: Eloy Jimenez - Did you really think we'd pick against the 2019 Most Essential White Sox?
Josh: Fernando Tatis Jr. (NL) - Going against the grain is what San Diego likes to do and ignoring extra year of control by having Fernando Tatis Jr. make his debut on Opening Day is the latest example. I suspect that Tatis Jr. will have a terrific year to continue twisting the Butcher knife in White Sox fans backs.
Greg: Peter Alonso (NL) - Peter Alonso will probably hit 40 homers and then fracture his skeleton in a clubhouse accident, because Mets gonna Mets.
Ted: Victor Robles (NL) - Victor Robles has looked good in his short stints with the Nationals (117 OPS+ over 93 PA), and he has fantastic speed, defense, and hitting; his minor league career line is .300/.392/.457. He should be another fun, young player to watch in the NL East, and is going to show why the Nationals were okay moving on from Bryce Harper.
White Sox Best Case Scenario in 2019
Josh: White Sox start hot and are in first place after April. Eloy smashes and wins RoY, Moncada has his breakout season, injuries are limited, starting pitching holds up, and the White Sox put a scare into Cleveland but fade in September finishing 83-79 in second place. A 21-game improvement from last year.
Greg: 81-81 record, Yoan Moncada gets down-ballot MVP votes, Reynaldo Lopez makes the All-Star team, Eloy wins Rookie of the Year, no more prospects get hurt.
Ted: So much progress! On the hitting side, Moncada breaks out, Jimenez matches or even surpasses his lofty expectations. Tim Anderson continues to improve on both sides of the ball while Abreu regains his form (and stays healthy); free agent signings Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay prove they’re more than just Manny Machado associates.
Pitching-wise, Reynaldo Lopez develops further while Lucas Giolito’s adjustments finally take and he develops into a 3-4 win pitcher. The bullpen is as nasty as advertised, and Dylan Cease has a healthy and effective late summer debut in Chicago.
White Sox Worst Case Scenario
Josh: Eloy Jimenez doesn’t hit. Yoan Moncada strikes out more than 200 times again, Tim Anderson regresses. Jose Abreu misses significant time. The starting pitching collapses. Dylan Cease gets hurt. White Sox only win 57 games, and San Diego earns a Wild Card berth thanks to MVP Manny Machado.
Greg: 100 losses, Eloy disappoints, Moncada and Anderson both take steps backwards, Dylan Cease's shoulder does an impression of Jake Burger's Achilles, Rick Hahn gets a 10-year, $300 million contract extension.
Ted: All is dark and everything is awful. Moncada just can’t stop striking out, while Tim Anderson regresses. Abreu shows why GMs no longer bet on aging first basemen, and Eloy Jimenez logs just 50 games due to a variety of nagging injuries. The free agent signings are, in typical White Sox fashion, complete busts. On the pitching side, Reynaldo Lopez’s flyball rate catches up to him, and his entire season looks like last July. Giolito continues to struggle and the bullpen, while okay, is largely ineffective due to overuse. Dylan Cease snuffs out the last rays of hope from White Sox pitching prospects when he undergoes Tommy John surgery mid-summer.
Boldest Prediction for 2019 Season
Josh: Sticking with what I said on the podcast. Only the Dodgers will be NL team returning to the postseason from last year (Braves, Cubs, Brewers, and Rockies don’t make it), and Luis Robert joins the team in September.
Greg: Major League Baseball announces expansion to Portland and Montreal, beginning in 2024.
Ted: From 1994 to 2008, the White Sox had an above .500 record against the AL Central every year, excepting 1996 (24-28). Since 2008, the only season in which the Sox have been .500 or better was 2012 (37-35); the last six seasons they’ve finished 10 or more games under .500 against the Central, good for an overall winning percentage of just .407. 2019 flips that trend as the Sox take advantage of a weak AL Central, going 43-33, ten games over .500.
White Sox 2019 Record
Josh & Jim: 70-92
Greg: 72-90
Ted: 78-84
Submit your 2019 predictions by copy n' paste the text into a comment below.
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American League
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Central:
West:
Wild Card 1:
Wild Card 2:
National League
East:
Central:
West:
Wild Card 1:
Wild Card 2:
World Series:
MVP (AL/NL):
Cy Young (AL/NL):
White Sox final record:
