“A Form of Gambling” – A Cleveland Indians preview

12:00 PM CDT on April 1, 2019

Marge Simpson: "I'm sure your insurance will cover the house.
Maude Flanders: "Uh, well, no. Neddy doesn't believe in insurance. He considers it a form of gambling.
Ned Flanders: "You know it's kind of funny. The only thing that survived the storm were the family tombstones. They're all we have left.

I've written previews of at least 20 teams per year every season dating back to 2014, and the 2018 Cleveland Indians fit the "stars and scrubs" model about as well as any contending team I've seen. Here's the total Baseball Reference WAR for the top seven players of each 90+ win American League team as a percentage of total team WAR:

Rays: 54%
Yankees: 56%
Astros: 57%
Athletics: 64%
Red Sox: 69%
Indians: 79%

Of the aforementioned Cleveland seven, only Michael Brantley has departed, leaving the sextet of Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, and Mike Clevinger. Cleveland doesn't have much else, but they shouldn't need much more than that to win the AL Central yet again. As the best left-side-of-the-infield duo in baseball, Ramirez and Lindor can cover up a lot of holes elsewhere on the diamond. Between them, they hit 77 home runs last season from important defensive positions. Ramirez' evolution into a slugging monster and Lindor's stellar defense at short should Cleveland humming.

The rotation is still led by Kluber, who's been a true workhorse for Cleveland over the past half-decade. A sinker-slider pitcher, Kluber's formula is all about keeping the ball in the park and allowing few free passes. Bauer was arguably even better than Kluber in 2018, and you can read probably everything you've ever wanted to know about him here. A cerebral pitcher with a diverse arsenal, Bauer's commitment to honing his craft paid off last year as his fastball gained some heat, his slider picked up some more tilt, and his curveball began to dive more.

Carrasco is another guy who's been around awhile, and he's typically dominant when he can stay healthy. Carrasco's changeup is a filthy pitch that sits in the high 80s but typically has about an 8-inch vertical separation from his fastball, so hitters tend to swing over it. As time has gone on, Carrasco has leaned more and more on his excellent slider, which is equally deadly. Clevinger's the new entrant into the quartet of aces, and he packs a mid-90's fastball with a couple tough breaking pitches. Even Shane Bieber, the "fifth starter", put up a 3.23 FIP last season on the strength of a slider that caused a swing and miss over one-fourth of the time it was thrown. There's no break in this group, and all of them are good bets to shut down opposing offenses each time they take the ball.

Unfortunately for Cleveland, these aces are backed by a patchwork bullpen and a weird cast of misfit position players. Carlos Santana should provide at least some stability at 1B/DH with his walks, power, and odd combination of contact hitting with a low batting average. The Indians picked up Hanley Ramirez to serve as their designated hitter, which made little sense given that Ramirez is 35 and no longer has the ability to, you know, hit. Second baseman Jason Kipnis hasn't been a threat at the plate since 2016. He's on the IL with a calf strain, so he'll be temporarily replaced by Brad Miller, who hasn't been a threat at the plate since 2016.

Where things really fall apart for Cleveland is the outfield, which is a questionable mix of spare parts. Jake Bauers is a first baseman that Cleveland is trying out in left field. The 23-year-old lefty came over from the Rays in the three-team Edwin Encarnacion trade and displayed a shaky Three True Outcomes profile last season. Tyler Naquin is now entering his age-28 season and his excellent hitting stint in 2015 now looks like a flash in the pan. He should provide above-average defense in a corner, but that's it. In center field, Cleveland has Leonys Martin, who is a guy to root for after his recovery from a life-threatening bacterial infection late last season. He's more of a glove than a bat, and probably not a guy that should be a starter on a projected division favorite, but his return to the field is a great story.

***

With a dearth of competition in the AL Central, Cleveland was in great position to extend their dynasty, which makes their cost-cutting offseason all the more confusing. All they had to do was tread water to remain near-locks for the postseason, but they let Brantley walk, traded Yan Gomes, and sold off Yonder Alonso, whose presence might be missed if Bauers and Ramirez continue to falter. They've unnecessarily made themselves vulnerable, and while they're still favorites over the Minnesota Twins, they have very little insurance against things going wrong. Unfortunately, something already has gone wrong, and their best player in Lindor is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. The focus on cost-cutting with such a stranglehold on the division registers less as a baseball decision and more as another data point in the ongoing financial struggle between players and owners. Clearly, the Chicago White Sox were not the only AL Central team whose offseason deserves an 'F'.

Probable Starting Pitchers