Background:
After a rough Freshman season hitting .234/.322/.306 in 61 games, Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman burst on to the scene in 2018. In his Sophomore season, Rutschman hit .408/.505/.628 hitting behind first-round picks Nick Madrigal and Trevor Larnach in the lineup. While those two players received a lot of attention from pitchers, Rutschman cashed in driving in 83 RBI with 22 doubles and nine home runs. His RBI total and 102 hits set a new school single season record.
Rutschman was the Beavers hero during their National Championship run setting a new College World Series record with 17 hits during the tournament and earning Most Outstanding Player. The switch-hitting catcher had a busy summer playing for Team USA, and of course, was the best hitter. In nine games, Rutschman hit .355/.432/.516 with five doubles, and an equal amount of walks to strikeouts (5:5).
All of his success in 2018 made Rutschman the number one MLB Draft prospect before the 2019 season started. All he did this season was improve his numbers across the board hitting .419/.580/.765 with 17 home runs and a staggering walk to strikeout ratio of 73 free passes to just 37 punchouts. Rutschman is a Golden Spikes Finalist and won Pac-12 Player of the Year honors.
Pac-12 Player of the year yesterday.
— Oregon State Baseball (@BeaverBaseball) May 30, 2019
Today, it’s time to move that to NATIONAL Player of the Year. #GoBeavs pic.twitter.com/HZdlm2y165
Grades:
MLBPipeline:
Hit 60 | Power 60 | Run 40 | Field 60| Overall 60
Fangraphs:
Hit 35/55 | Power 40/60 | Run 40/30 | Field 50/60 | Arm 65/65 | FV 60
Hitting:
Batting left-handed, Rutschman is a 60-grade hitter. Well balanced swing with his hands sitting low by his chest to help get the barrel through the zone. A combination of good hip rotation and bat control, Rutschman is a hitter a team can dream of getting 60+ extra base hits a year and displayed this season the ability to increase his home run rate.
On the right-hand side, Rutschman at times has difficulties pulling the ball. There's plenty of power in the swing, but his spray is to center and right field. It doesn't look like Rutschman has the same bat speed batting right-handed but would need to review TrackMan data to confirm. In late-game situations, teams would be better off having lefties face Rutschman.
Rutschman is at his best with runners in scoring position as during the 2019 regular season he went 21-for-45 with 27 walks to just four strikeouts while driving in 38 RBI. His patience at the plate paired with a good batters eye is a significant factor in his run-producing ability. Rarely chasing pitches out of the zone, willing to take his walks and an understanding of which pitches he can drive is why teams lately have been walking him. If Rutschman meets his potential, you'll see him bat second or third in the lineup.
Fielding
Watching Rutschman behind the plate, he has a knack of stealing strikes. When asking those who have seen Rutschman up close, I was told he does an outstanding job of managing the umpire's view of the strike zone. We see it often on how umpires are lined up behind home plate both in the minors and majors where they are not directly behind the catcher. Instead, they more lined up with a corner of the plate. An example is an umpire lined up on the inside corner on a right-handed batter.
Below is a video that breaks down how Rutschman was stealing strikes during the College World Series that is worth your time. It's all based on how Rutschman is set up, the view he allows the umpire to have of each pitch away, and how the ball is received. Rutschman has strong hands that always make a slight movement back into the strike zone, helping his pitchers steal a couple of strikes per game. Sure, this skill would go away once the robot overlords arrive to call pitches.
While the receiving skills are excellent, Rutschman does have a strong arm with a pop time around 2.0 seconds. For comparison sake, James McCann currently has a pop time of 2.05 seconds. Rutschman was 13-for-26 throwing out runners stealing in 2019.
Rutschman just showed off his arm and Philip with a fantastic tag.https://t.co/0MRZMF9Nnf#GoBeavs pic.twitter.com/VmzBfsi8Tz
— Oregon State Baseball (@BeaverBaseball) May 25, 2019
Conclusion
Adley Rutschman is the dream pick for the White Sox at third overall. If this miracle would happen, and it would be a miracle, Rutschman slides in behind Luis Robert as the second best position player prospect in the White Sox system. There's no doubt about his ability behind the plate defensively, and offensively he combines Nick Madrigal's bat control with Zack Collins power profile from the left-hand side. Rutschman might be an instant Top 30 prospect in all of baseball.
So why would Baltimore pass up on Rutschman? There's chatter they could go under slot to save $1 million and push it back to the second round selection (Pick 42) increasing their offer from $1.7 million to $2.7 million. That'd be more than Pick 26 slot value. If Rutschman doesn't sign for $7.2 million, the Orioles could draft Bobby Witt Jr. or Andrew Vaughn.
If Baltimore takes Vaughn, I think the miracle happens with Rutschman falling to the White Sox. They most likely would need to go over slot to get a deal done like in 2014 with Carlos Rodon, but that's how they get the best player in the draft class.
If Baltimore takes Witt Jr., well, I suspect that Kansas City takes Rutschman to pair with the five college starters they selected last year to help boost their rebuild. Rutschman goes suddenly from draft crush to future pain in the ass.
I'm 90% sure that Baltimore will do the right thing and pick Rutschman. There's really no reason to be cute trying to play the draft slot game and hope to grab another Top-25 pick in the second round. Especially when Arizona has four picks before Baltimore makes another selection. When commissioner Rob Manfred goes to the podium Monday night, I expect that Rutschman's name will be called first.
However, crazy things have happened with the first pick. Not many thought Philadelphia would take Mickey Moniak or Minnesota taking Royce Lewis first overall until draft day. Worthwhile to keep reading the tea leaves, and hope for one more miracle that the White Sox can add another 60 FV prospect to their rebuilding efforts.
