“Implode” – A Washington Nationals preview

9:00 AM CDT on June 4, 2019

Lisa: "Well, look at the wonders of the computer age now."

Homer: "'Wonders,' Lisa? Or 'blunders?'

Lisa: "I think that was implied by what I said."

Homer: "'Implied,' Lisa? Or 'implode?'"

Lisa: "Mom, make him stop!"

We are now in the midst of our second consecutive season full of questions as to why the Washington Nationals have been unable to escape mediocrity. Coming off of back-to-back 95-plus win seasons, the Nationals rolled into 2018 with a powerhouse pitching staff and plenty of stars in the field. Sure enough, they found themselves 33-23 and tied for the division lead at the end of a scorching hot 20-7 month of May. They soon slipped badly in Davey Martinez' rookie season and wound up barely finishing above .500.

One season later, criticisms of Martinez are still rolling in, as the Nationals sit at just 26-33 despite loads of talent on the roster. As discussed on the Sox Machine Podcast this week, one of the major culprits is the bullpen. The Nationals' pen ranks dead last in the major leagues in Win Probability Added, costing them close to six victories relative to the average team. A theoretically average bullpen performance would have them right on the heels of the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies. Closer Sean Doolittle has only once blown a save in a game that the Nationals wound up losing, so he hasn't been the issue. There's just been a world full of problems getting to him.

That said, Washington has also had plenty of issues unrelated to their lack of quality firemen. Catcher Yan Gomes' bat is performing its familiar disappearing act, and Adam Eaton has two kids and a mortgage has a batting line that looks nowhere near as rosy as his home loan situation. Brian Dozier looked like a bargain at one year, $9 million, but the 32-year-old has played like aging deadweight that doesn't resemble the prolific slugger he was two years ago.

First base has been a drag as well, as Ryan Zimmerman's plantar fasciitis has rendered him unavailable. Matt Adams has given the Nats some power in Zimmerman's stead, but an anemic walk rate has kept his OBP below .270. Trea Turner is the reigning NL stolen base champ and remains a terror on the basepaths, but a sagging walk rate means he's getting a chance to use the speed a lot less this year. Finally, the much-hyped and still-not-a-White-Sox Victor Robles hasn't displayed the strike zone command and contact ability that he had in the minor leagues, as he's sporting a K:BB ratio above 4.0.

That's a lot of defects, but Washington has had two stars on offense that have kept the ship from outright plummeting into the abyss. Juan Soto made his debut as a teenager last season and terrorized the National League. He boasts an unusually high walk rate for a player so young, big power, and a bat-to-ball ability that rarely leads to an easy out in the field. Anthony Rendon is in the midst of a huge year in his lead-up to free agency. Often kept in the shadow of Bryce Harper, the 29-year-old has shone much brighter with Harper out of town, with an OPS over 1.000 against both righties and lefties.

With essentially only two guys in the lineup doing the heavy lifting, Washington has received stronger contributions from their starting pitchers. Max Scherzer has a good case to be called the best pitcher in baseball, as at age 34, he's leading all of baseball in strikeouts and FIP. He certainly looks like a Hall of Famer, which is a claim that would have seemed insane after his age-27 season.

Patrick Corbin got paid big in the offseason essentially for one great season in 2018, and so far, he's justified the investment. The lefty doesn't throw particularly hard, but he throws his slider north of 35 percent of the time, and it's lethal. 2019 is Stephen Strasburg's tenth season in the majors (yikes!) and in eight of the ten seasons (including this one), he's posted a FIP below 3.00. While he doesn't throw as hard as he used to (he currently averages close to 94 mph on his fastball), Strasburg's off-speed offerings, particularly the changeup, are so good that it doesn't matter. Anibal Sanchez rejuvenated his career last season in Atlanta by adding a cutter. While he's been serviceable in 2019, walks have been an issue.

***

The Nationals' problematic bullpen has been missing Koda Glover and Trevor Rosenthal, both of whom will return mid-June at the earliest. However, it's clear from their offensive woes that getting leads has been just as difficult as holding them. Neither the Wild Card nor the division are out of reach, but the clock is ticking. If Washington's position players don't start meeting expectations and the relief corps doesn't stop imploding late in games, they're likely sunk. That won't speak well for Dave Martinez, who will have managed two of the more disappointing baseball teams in recent memory.

Probable Starting Pitchers