After spending the week delving deep into to the MLB draft, it's time to reacquaint ourselves with the Chicago White Sox. Wikipedia defines the Chicago White Sox as "White Sox redirects here. For other uses, see White Sox (disambiguation)," and it's as true today as it was back then.
The White Sox open a three-game weekend set with the Kansas City Royals this weekend, and as long as the Texas Rangers keep hovering over .500, this is the last forgiving spot on their schedule the rest of the month.
Whether the White Sox firm up along with it depends a lot on Reynaldo López, whose 6.62 ERA is as bad as it looks, and whose starts feel worse because he's wasted big leads in three straight games. He's giving up a ton of fly balls, which might automatically be a bad thing, except the one pitcher worse than him in that category is Jake Odorizzi, who has a 1.96 ERA. Odorizzi has given up four homers in 64 innings, while López has surrendered 17 over 69.
Reading Eno Sarris' write-up about Odorizzi, it seems like Odorizzi is courting regression in his future, but he's creating his own luck at least partially by gaining more than a tick on his velocity and locating his pitches well. López has none of that going for him. He's got above-average velocity, but the command is scattershot, and opponents have been able to eliminate other pitches, leaving them to pounce on the pitches López places on the tee.
But regarding Odorizzi, the Twins also make sure to cash in while he's ahead. Over 13 starts, López has faced 84 batters three times in a game. In 12 starts, Odorizzi has faced only 45. This isn't as simple as shortening a hook because Odorizzi doesn't complicate the Twins' planning. With the way he's suppressing runners, the third time in the order doesn't arrive until the fifth inning. With López, that shows up in the fourth. Maybe Rocco Baldelli would try pushing Odorizzi into the sixth the way Rick Renteria does if the tables were turned, but he doesn't have to.
As it stands, though, Renteria is the one getting his hand forced, and pushing López through his struggles just isn't working. Opponents are hitting .375/.464/.792 against López after two times through the order, with 15 of 27 hits going for extra bases.
It'd be one thing if López cruised before hitting this wall, because then you could argue that conquering his TTOP problems are a part of his development, or at least a test of his ceiling. When he falls apart in the fifth after struggling to hold it together through four, Renteria looks like he's hoping adrenaline will help López flip the switch, when instead fatigue merely makes his already poor execution worse.
In the big picture, López is basically going through what Lucas Giolito did last year, which is something to keep in mind for multiple reasons. Besides the fact that Giolito is a monster now, he also doesn't require a translator to communicate through the media. His answers about his struggles last season were often descriptive and prescriptive, and maybe overly so, but they at least proposed specific ways to attack an issue. López's answers are limited by the language barrier, and so they come off as more indirect and boilerplate:
But start to start, trying to force López to go six doesn't seem to be a solution the way it got Giolito through some tough times last season. Giolito could be stretched past early struggles last year because he seemed to need two or three innings to understand what was working for him on a given day. López is succeeding with fastball muscle early, which makes succeeding with fastball muscle late a harder proposition.
While the tough part of the schedule is here in terms of opponent strength, the grind eases up. After playing 31 games in 31 days, the White Sox get the luxury of six off days to revise some strategies. Renteria is converting one of them by skipping Manny Bañuelos for a turn. A shorter hook for López would be another, at least if a fourth straight collapse is in the offing.
Renteria says López is in a bit of a "twilight zone," which might be true for López himself, but it's a limited metaphor because of who's deploying it. Renteria is one of the forces beyond López's control, and over the last few turns, he's left López out there to get his universal comeuppance.
With López having exhausted his benefit of the doubt, Renteria should shift gears and considering López's starts something to guard against, at least while the game is underway. If the better version of López returns, the Sox have to think they'll see it over the first four innings of a given start, because it isn't flying in to save the day in the fifth or sixth.
