"Who should the White Sox draft in the first round?"
Many have asked me this question over the last month, and it's hard for me to decide. The obvious answer is Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman, who I think is by far the best prospect in this draft class. However, the White Sox have pick No. 3, and I don't think Baltimore will get cute playing the bonus money game and pass up an opportunity to add an FV 60 player to their pipeline. Miracles have happened for the White Sox, but I don't think Rutschman will fall to them.
From asking other writers and scouts what they hear about what the White Sox, it sounds like the decision will come down to two players with two vastly different paths: college first baseman Andrew Vaughn or prep shortstop C.J. Abrams.
I've written extensive draft profiles on both Vaughn and Abrams and been fortunate to see Abrams up close at a showcase against the top prep players in this class. My Friday nights were spent watching Pac-12 baseball to get as many looks at Vaughn as possible and a feeling for his game, specifically his batting skills.
If I had the opportunity to be in that draft room and Nick Hostetler asked me, "Why should we take Vaughn with the third pick?", I'd tell him, "Because I think Vaughn could be Paul Konerko." You know the type -- a first baseman that hits in the middle-of-the-order providing another 30+ home run bat to pair with Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, and Luis Robert. With uncertainty about Jose Abreu's immediate future, Vaughn could be a quick riser who continues the lineage of White Sox first basemen without Rick Hahn needing to spend eight figures a season in free agency for another solution.
But what if Hostetler flipped the script on me and asked me the counter question: "Why shouldn't we take Vaughn first?"
I'd give him the same answer: "Because I think Vaughn could be Paul Konerko."
This comment may come off as blasphemy within the White Sox community since Konerko was a fine player that had one of the greatest moments in team history, but his career profile typically doesn't age well. He pulled it off, hitting 439 home runs with a career 118 wRC+ over 18 seasons, but it's a hard trick to pull off with that skill set.
Konerko's career WAR is 24.1. If you want to remove the last two seasons since they were basically a long retirement tour, you can get him up to 27.6 according to FanGraphs. Only in six of those seasons did Konerko have 2 WAR or better, and he topped out at 3.8 WAR in 2005. That's not a lot. Compare him to Jose Abreu, who in six seasons with the White Sox is at 16.2 WAR and has four years with at least 2 WAR
Even though Konerko was a very good hitter, his overall impact on the game was limited. A good defensive first baseman is helpful, but not a game-changer compared to a position up the middle. Konerko was not fleet of foot, so he didn't gain any additional value from his baserunning. In fact, at -85.2 baserunning runs, it was a detriment.
All Konerko could do to help the White Sox win was hit for power and provide leadership in the clubhouse. The stats show he did the former, and everybody around the Sox said he provided the latter. Maybe the analytics department has found a way to measure the impact of clubhouse leadership, and if they have perhaps that explains some of their recent offseason moves. If they think that profile can help their rebuilding efforts, sure, pick Vaughn. I think he's cut from the same cloth as Konerko.
The risk is what the White Sox could be passing up. There are opportunities to draft a player that has more growth opportunity than Vaughn. Sure, C.J. Abrams will probably never develop into a 60-grade hit and power tool like Vaughn, but his elite athleticism and improvement playing shortstop during his senior season will provide multiple avenues on how Abrams can help a team win. If a ballclub believes in its player-development abilities, Abrams could mature into a 50-hit and 50-power shortstop with 70-grade speed. For me, that profile carries more weight than a 60-hit, 60-power, 30-speed first baseman.
Plus, prep shortstops have a much better track record than college first basemen pick in the first round. Looking at shortstops, Manny Machado, Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, and Carlos Correa are the success stories since 2010.
The best college first baseman since 2010 is CJ Cron, and you have to go further back to the 2002 MLB Draft to find the last college first baseman to accumulate more than 10 WAR in his MLB career. That was White Sox fan favorite Nick Swisher. Next closest to career 10 WAR is current White Sox Yonder Alonso.
Limited growth opportunity, narrow skill set, and terrible league draft track record are good reasons to not spend the third overall pick on a college first baseman. If Vaughn doesn't hit as well as his scouting reports say, then the White Sox are stuck with another corner infielder profile bat who is not reaching his full potential. They have plenty of those players already in stock across the farm system.
Maybe Vaughn could prove otherwise. Maybe he proves that his 60-grade hit tool is for real, and he quickly demolishes pitching in Winston-Salem and Birmingham before slotting behind Eloy Jiménez in the lineup and helping the White Sox hit over 200 homers a season. Those are valuable benefits to a future contending White Sox team, and maybe one day, Vaughn could have a moment in the postseason that will last a lifetime like Konerko.
My best guess is that the pick will be Vaughn, and the sooner he joins the farm system and hits, the better. Any positive outcomes will be needed to quash the fear of watching another White Sox college slugger struggle to adjust to the professional level, especially if San Diego picks Abrams. I don't think White Sox fans need another what-if situation with the Padres and shortstop prospects.
