It wasn't all that long ago that White Sox fans could easily issue a top-10 prospect list with only mild differences. They might even be able to list 15 prospects with definite preferences before redundancy, guesswork and hunches led to diminishing returns.
But thanks the graduation of Eloy Jiménez and a prep-heavy draft (both good things), as well as injuries to and face-plants by other farmhands (both bad things), a top prospects list gets gooey after about five or so. And if Dylan Cease gets called up to replace the once-again-injured Manny Bañuelos, it's even more fun.
Before the season, I published my top 12 White Sox prospects exclusively for Patreon supporters. Because I'm not a scout and don't want to conflate my rankings as the same as those with scouting backgrounds and extensive networks, I figured it was most honest to rank White Sox prospects by how much I'd hate to see them traded away.
This time around, it's a lot harder to find the guys who would inspire seller's remorse. Here's my midseason update, with the preseason rank in parentheses:
No. 1: Luis Robert (4)
Why he moved up: Fully healthy, Robert made easy work of the Carolina League, then proceeded to overpower the Southern League despite playing in a ballpark that saps the production of its hitters to power its lights. He's hitting .307/.351/.497 at Birmingham even after an 0-for-15 slump to end the first half, and he rocketed out of that by winning the Southern League All-Star Game MVP.
No. 2: Michael Kopech (2)
Why he stayed put: Kopech's elbow made the decision for him, but it turns out that this year is a great one for taking your money out of stocks and stashing hard cash in a mattress. This ranking presumes that the White Sox have an idea of how to rehabilitate a player from Tommy John surgery, which isn't necessarily a given.
No. 3: Dylan Cease (3)
Why he stayed put: Cease is battling a rough patch in Charlotte after an encouraging first two months in an awful pitching environment. Terrible weather has a lot to do with his unimpressive numbers -- 4.37 ERA, averaging under five innings over his 12 starts -- and his stats looked a lot more impressive before first-inning issues poisoned his season line. Using the "who would it suck to see traded" meter, selling low on Cease stings more.
No. 4: Nick Madrigal (6)
Why he moved up: He's pulling the ball in the air when the opportunity presents itself, which was the chief concern about his profile entering the season. Even with a small sample of nine games, Madrigal the rare hitter to have more fun in Birmingham (.417/.362/.528) than Winston-Salem (.295/.363/.401), which only reinforces the notion in my head that he's basically going to post a .740 OPS wherever he goes. That's not exciting in and of itself, but with plus defense up the middle and baserunning value, there's something to it.
No. 5: Andrew Vaughn (new)
Why he's here: He was widely considered the best college bat in the draft when the White Sox took him third overall, but he's a first baseman who has to hit to earn his keep, so putting him on the second tier and waiting for him to solidify his top-50 status seems appropriate. He hasn't yet signed, but this assumes he will.
No. 6: Zack Collins (11)
Why he moved up: He's having his best-ever pro season, hitting .250/.374/.482 in Charlotte, and he's still behind the plate, so he's keeping the catcher/first baseman idea in play. Look, maybe he can't catch, and maybe he can't hit left-handed pitching, and maybe his numbers are inflated by the fourth-craziest scoring environment in minor-league baseball, and maybe his OBP is born from passivity instead of true discipline. What were we talking about again?
No. 7: Matthew Thompson (new)
No. 8: Andrew Dalquist (new)
Why they're here: The White Sox haven't drafted prep arms this high in five years, and even if you think the White Sox can't develop one, they haven't yet signed. Find a blemish! Time's up! You can't!
No. 9: Dane Dunning (10)
Why he moved up: Because Jimmy Lambert now has forearm issues and Alec Hansen's control issues have a hair trigger. Just like Kopech, the Tommy John surgery allows everybody to hope Dunning can pick up where he left off, because if that happens, he'll do it sooner than anybody else.
No. 10: Steele Walker (new)
Why he moved up: He's hitting .302/.275/.535 in June after a sluggish first month in Winston-Salem, and that's more upward trajectory than any other non-Robert outfielder has shown this year.
No. 11: Bryce Bush (9)
Why he moved down: I felt awfully smug about my ultra-bullish preseason ranking when the White Sox moved Bush off third base after Easter and he responded by hitting .338/.440/.620 over his next 20 games. Welp, after injuring his foot, he has just five hits over his last 49 at-bats with 28 strikeouts. Documented potential causes for his improvement (fewer defensive responsibilities) and the crash (foot problem) are why I'm keeping hope alive. That, and all the other prospect failures around the system.
No. 12: You (new)
This is always the cop-out when publications don't feel confident about settling on any name. Congratulations!
