We wrap up the last day of the All-Star break with a question about the teams the White Sox will spend the rest of the season sizing themselves up against. From Sox Machine supporter Ed:
If the Sox window for contention hopefully opens in 2020, what do the windows of contention look like for the other 4 teams in the AL Central?
By and large, it should be well-timed. Running down the division:
Minnesota: The Twins are in a fascinating position, because they're set to lose three-fifths of their rotation to free agency after the season, as well as Jason Castro and Jonathan Schoop. Their young core will be around for a while, though, as Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco are under lengthy team-friendly extensions, and Byron Buxton is under team control through 2022. Considering they're carrying a lower payroll than they did during the Joe Mauer days, the Twins have room to add, and they can also deal from a top-10 farm system with prospects whose ETAs are largely centered in 2020-21. They're going to have to restock next winter, but they shouldn't be in the position of tearing it down or regrouping for the foreseeable future.
Cleveland: While Trevor Bauer is a free agent after next season, the Indians' official fork in the road on paper comes after the 2021 season, when Francisco Lindor and Corey Kluber hit free agency. Jim Callis has their next big wave of prospects arriving in 2022. With neither Lindor nor Bauer expected to remain in Cleveland, the bigger question is whether the Indians deal one or both before in an attempt to accelerate the next phase. If they try to win while Lindor's available, a step back after 2021 lines up nicely with what should be an aggressive White Sox team.
Detroit: The Tigers have a couple of arms that could arrive in the majors fairly quickly -- Casey Mize and Matt Manning -- but it's going to take a few years for impact position players to show up, which includes this year's fifth-overall pick, Riley Greene. Their payroll loses Jordan Zimmermann's $25 million contract after the 2020 season, which might increase the new Ilitch administration's willingness to spend. Maybe they add some prospects closer to contributing by trading Matt Boyd, but otherwise it's looking like the Tigers are a couple years behind the White Sox.
Kansas City: The Royals drafted their top prospect when they took Bobby Witt Jr. with the second overall pick, but as a high school shortstop, he likely has three to four years of development ahead of him. The same can be said for a lot of their prospects, where the pitching is ahead of the hitting. The Royals payroll is pretty bare once Alex Gordon comes off it, and they could receive a haul if they have the appetite trade Whit Merrifield, but if Dayton Moore doesn't want to completely blow it up (that includes Danny Duffy and maybe Sal Perez), then they might be able to form a homegrown-powered team until 2022 or 2023.
Any White Sox rebuild seems like it'll definitely have to go through the Twins, and maybe through the last throes of this current Cleveland core unless some of the high-ceiling young talent arrives earlier than expected. If the Indians have to take a clear step back, it's hard to imagine the Royals or Tigers stepping up to occupy the void.
The hope is that the White Sox rebuild achieves its first success earlier than later, and not just for the sake of our interest. If the Sox can tap into postseason revenues and a charged-up season-ticket base at the end of 2021, they should have resources other teams don't, in the same fashion the Tigers used Little Caesars money to depress the division. That's assuming a work stoppage doesn't get in the way, anyway.
