After 100 games, the Chicago White Sox are 45-55. Before the season began, that would be a pretty good run for a team that was projected to only win 70 games by both FanGraphs and PECOTA. Davenport projections had the White Sox as a 74 win team which was closer to the Vegas over/under wins total at 74.5 (Source: Westgate).
I went with the under as missing out on Manny Machado it was challenging to see the White Sox winning 13 more games than in 2018. For a moment, it looked like they were after three months of better than expected baseball. Before the All-Star Break, the projection systems liked the White Sox to win more than 75 games when they were 42-44.
After losing 11 of their last 14 games, the White Sox are back to a projected 70-92 record via FanGraphs.
Before the season, Joe Ostrowski of 670 the Score joined the podcast to share his preseason picks. First, a quick recap of our over picks:
| Joe Ostrowksi | Josh Nelson |
| Washington Nationals: O89.5 | Cincinnati Reds: O78.5 |
| St. Louis Cardinals: O88 | Arizona Diamondbacks: O75.5 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers: O93 | Seattle Mariners: O74.5 |
Seattle is going to look like a terrible pick on my part as they are now only projected to win 68 games. St. Louis is at an 85-win pace, but they have been playing better baseball of late winning 14 fo their last 20 games. The Cardinals have caught the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central standings, so maybe they find a way to get over 88 wins for Joe.
Cincinnati and Washington are in too close to tell territory, and the feather in my cap is picking Arizona to go over as they are projected to win 81 games.
When it came to under picks, I’m faring much better.
| Joe Ostrowski | Josh Nelson |
| Milwaukee Brewers: U86.5 | Chicago Cubs: U88.5 |
| San Diego Padres: U78.5 | Boston Red Sox: U95.5 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks: U75.5 | Chicago White Sox: U74.5 |
What happens in upcoming days up to the trade deadline will have an impact on these picks. There is a chance to go 3-0 on my under selections. The Chicago Cubs are projected to win 88 games, and like last year, it may come down to the final game to see if they remain under 88.5 wins. Boston is playing better baseball of late winning 13 of their last 20 games, but the projected win total is still 91 games.
Milwaukee was a good pick by Joe as injuries to the Brewers starting pitching staff has them pegged at 84 wins after 100 games. San Diego will be close to their preseason total as they are currently moving towards a projected 78 win season.
Again, a shift in projections is expected to happen when we know for sure which teams are buying or selling this week. At the moment, here are the teams in MLB looking to beat their projected win total after 100 games.
| Team | Preseason Vegas | 2019 100 games Proj. Wins | Difference after 100 games |
| Twins | 84 | 95 | 11 |
| Rangers | 71 | 79 | 8 |
| Dodgers | 94.5 | 102 | 7.5 |
| Braves | 84.5 | 92 | 7.5 |
| Giants | 73.5 | 80 | 6.5 |
| Rays | 84.5 | 90 | 5.5 |
| Diamondbacks | 75.5 | 81 | 5.5 |
| Yankees | 96.5 | 101 | 4.5 |
| Astros | 96.5 | 101 | 4.5 |
| Athletics | 83.5 | 87 | 3.5 |
Teams looking to fall short of their preseason expectations.
| Team | Preseason Vegas | 2019 100 games Proj. Wins | Difference after 100 games |
| Brewers | 86.5 | 84 | -2.5 |
| Pirates | 77.5 | 75 | -2.5 |
| Cardinals | 88 | 85 | -3 |
| Orioles | 59.5 | 56 | -3.5 |
| Red Sox | 95.5 | 91 | -4.5 |
| White Sox | 74.5 | 70 | -4.5 |
| Royals | 69.5 | 64 | -5.5 |
| Phillies | 89 | 83 | -6 |
| Mariners | 74.5 | 68 | -6.5 |
| Rockies | 84.5 | 77 | -7.5 |
| Mets | 85.5 | 78 | -7.5 |
| Blue Jays | 74.5 | 66 | -8.5 |
| Tigers | 69 | 56 | -13 |
For those that placed bets on these teams, it’ll come down to the wire.
| Team | Preseason Vegas | 2019 100 games Proj. Wins | Difference after 100 games |
| Indians | 91 | 92 | 1 |
| Angels | 82.5 | 83 | 0.5 |
| Nationals | 89 | 89 | 0 |
| Marlins | 63 | 63 | 0 |
| Cubs | 88.5 | 88 | -0.5 |
| Padres | 78.5 | 78 | -0.5 |
| Reds | 78.5 | 77 | -1.5 |
