It might be a fools errand trying to guess where baseball's top free agents will sign but it is a fun exercise. While we are not expecting $300 million contracts that Manny Machado and Bryce Harper signed last year, there are still headliners in Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, and Stephen Strasburg. All three were terrific in the World Series and should be expecting big pay days.
Before we make our picks, a few thoughts about the upcoming offseason and what to expect.
Other than the White Sox, who do you expect to be very active this offseason?
Patrick Nolan: I think the Boston Red Sox will be pretty active given the combination of their somewhat disappointing season, the pending free agency of Mookie Betts, and the hiring of Chaim Bloom. They have some very important decisions to make, and I expect them to make some big moves this offseason, whether it's buying, selling, or some combination of the two.
Greg Nix: The Yankees and the Angels seem like the two big-market teams with major needs and money to spend. The Nationals have several guys to make decisions on, and I can also see Atlanta and Philadelphia being active in a very competitive NL East. I’d expect the Astros to make a major move or two if Gerrit Cole leaves.
Josh Nelson: The New York Yankees. They have come so close to reaching the World Series losing in the ALCS two of the past three seasons that I think Brian Cashman will be very aggressive. Not just in free agency, but making a significant trade on the level of acquiring Giancarlo Stanton from Miami by making a deal for Francisco Lindor.
Outside of Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, who do you feel is the third best free agent in this class?
Patrick: Stephen Strasburg, followed by Yasmani Grandal.
Greg: Stephen Strasburg, at least in terms of expected contract size. Yasmani Grandal has a solid argument when it comes to overall value, but catcher defense remains a somewhat squishy skill that’s hard to project moving forward.
Josh: Strasburg.
What is the strength, and weakness, of this free agent class?
Patrick: The strength of this free agent class is starting pitching. Cole might be the best in the game, and Strasburg, Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu, Odorizzi, Keuchel, and Hamels create plenty of avenues for teams to pursue significant upgrades.
The weakness of this free agent class is outfielders. None of the best available free agents are center fielders, and those that play a corner will all make potential suitors choose between a glove and a bat.
Greg: The strength is definitely starting pitching. Cole and Strasburg are Cy Young types, while Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, and Hyun-Jin Ryu are all All-Star caliber arms. In terms of weakness, there aren’t many exciting corner outfield bats (unfortunately for the White Sox) or middle infielders available.
Josh: I agree with Patrick and Greg that there are good starting pitching options available which should be an active market. My concern is where are the left-handed bats? Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, Kole Calhoun, and Corey Dickerson seem to be the best available. I guess the White Sox should have tried harder for Bryce Harper last year.
Free Agent Predictions
Gerrit Cole
Patrick: Los Angeles Angels - eight years, $225 million
Cole wants to play on the west coast and the Angels seem almost like an inevitability at this point. The Angels have quite a few payroll commitments so with that contract estimate I am wondering if he might have to settle for less than what everyone's projecting to head to a preferred destination.
Greg: New York Yankees - eight years, $240 million
The league-wide consensus seems to be that Cole will head to the Angels, but Los Angeles has $87 million committed to Mike Trout, Justin Upton, and Albert Pujols. Do they really want another mega-contract? I’d be surprised if they top the money that a Yankees team in desperate need of an ace can offer.
Josh: New York Yankees - seven years, $245 million
The Yankees only had three starting pitchers who racked up more than 150 innings in 2019, thanks to injuries. As we saw this postseason, having a strong bullpen isn't enough to reach the World Series, and I think general manager Brian Cashman knows he needs a bonafide ace like Gerrit Cole to lead his staff. They got outbid by Washington for Patrick Corbin last year. I don't think that happens this offseason with Cole.
Anthony Rendon
Patrick: Texas Rangers - eight years, $250 million
Josh: Texas Rangers - seven years, $227.5 million
Greg: Texas Rangers - seven years, $210 million
Never count out a World Series winner bringing back their guys, but it’ll be tough for them to keep both Rendon and Stephen Strasburg while also filling potential holes at catcher, first, second, and (of course) the bullpen. It’s been a while since the Rangers made a splash, and Rendon would look great next to Joey Gallo in the heart of their lineup.
Stephen Strasburg
Patrick: Washington Nationals - six years, $170 million
Greg: Washington Nationals - six years, $180 million
Patrick: Stephen Strasburg and the Nats work out an extension for him to stay where he is.
Josh: San Diego Padres - five years, $165 million
Not so fast, my friends. I thought it was wise for Stephen Strasburg to opt-out of his contract with the Nationals after winning the World Series MVP. He can do better than four years, $100 million in this market. While I think the Nationals will try hard to make a new deal with Strasburg, I think San Diego will make too good of an offer to ignore.
Zack Wheeler
Patrick: New York Yankees - five years, $110 million
The Yankees' rotation is on the vulnerable side for a team that won 103 games, and Zack Wheeler could be a good fix for them.
Greg: Chicago White Sox - five years, $95 million
Zack Wheeler is at the top of the second-tier of free agents, which places him squarely in the David Robertson/Adam Dunn level that the White Sox are more comfortable in. Let’s hope Wheeler works out better than those guys.
Josh: Houston Astros - four years, $88 million
Losing Gerrit Cole would be a big blow for the Houston Astros, but they will try to minimize that impact by signing Zack Wheeler. They helped Cole and Justin Verlander learn to make adjustments, and I'm sure they can find a way for Wheeler to elevate his game.
Aroldis Chapman
Greg: He already signed, so this was an easy prediction!
J.D. Martinez
Patrick: Chicago White Sox - four years, $85 million
Greg: Chicago White Sox - four years, $84 million
Josh: Chicago White Sox - four years, $88 million
Patrick: There are a LOT of worse outcomes than the White Sox making J.D. Martinez their premier free agent this offseason, so it'd be great if they were able to nab him. That said, he excites me less than some of the other names around here. We're hearing talk about how likely it is and I'd have a sense of mild disappointment if this is easily the biggest move the Sox make.
Greg: I could see Chaim Bloom making room for Martinez on the Red Sox, so they don’t take a big step back in his first year. But Martinez also is so clearly what the White Sox lineup needs that I’m hoping even Jerry Reinsdorf can’t find a way to talk himself out of it.
Madison Bumgarner
Patrick: Minnesota Twins - four years, $75 million
Madison Bumgarner somehow didn't turn 30 until this year, but his recent injury history will potentially give suitors pause. The Twins are known to be in need of rotation help and he feels like someone they'd be able to afford.
Greg: Los Angeles Angels - five years, $100 million
Combining contract expectations with track record, Madison Bumgarner might be the safest bet on the starting pitching market. I think it makes more sense for the Angels to grab him and also go after a mid-rotation starter like Kyle Gibson than to back up the Brinks truck for Cole.
Josh: Atlanta Braves - five years, $105 million
Max Fried and Mike Soroka are a young, dynamic pairing to lead any starting rotation. If the Braves want to reach the NLCS in 2020, or further, I think they could use a veteran starter who has postseason success. Enter Madison Bumgarner to rekindle the magic he had in San Francisco with the Braves.
Yasmani Grandal
Patrick: Milwaukee Brewers - four years, $80 million
Greg: Milwaukee Brewers - five years, $75 million
Josh: Milwaukee Brewers - three years, $57 million
Even though Yasmani Grandal opted out, I think the Milwaukee Brewers will work out a new deal to keep him. Christian Yelich is under control for three more seasons, so it would be wise to pair Grandal with him for that duration.
Josh Donaldson
Greg: Atlanta Braves - three years, $75 million
Josh: Atlanta Braves - one year, $23 million
Patrick: Atlanta Braves - three years, $70 million
Operation Pillow Contract was a rousing success, and Donaldson's 6-bWAR should give the market renewed interest in handing him a multi-year deal. It's something of a cop-out to send him back to the Braves, but given that the Braves are in the midst of their competing window, have a relatively clean payroll, and have dubious internal prospects for filling third base after Johan Camargo's troubling play this season, it seems like a pretty good fit.
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Patrick: Los Angeles Dodgers - four years, $70 million
Greg: Los Angeles Dodgers - three years, $75 million
Josh: Los Angeles Dodgers - four years, $100 million
I feel the most confidence picking Hyun-Jin Ryu to stay with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The trio of Ryu - Walker Buehler - Clayton Kershaw would still be hard to beat in the NL West.
Nicholas Castellanos
Patrick: Toronto Blue Jays - three years, $40 million
One of my bold predictions for the offseason is that there will be a weak market for Nicholas Castellanos. He's one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball and should really just be a DH. The Blue Jays don't have much of an answer at DH right now, and with Justin Smoak on the move, maybe they could use Castellanos at first base as well.
Greg: Colorado Rockies - four years, $70 million
It seems like the Rockies sign exactly one free agent every offseason, and they’re always exactly like Nicholas Castellanos: somewhat overrated, terrible defender, bad fit for the roster. Never change, Colorado.
Josh: Chicago White Sox - four years, $72 million
I think because of familiarity, the White Sox value Nick Castellanos more than other ball clubs and sign him to play right field.
Marcell Ozuna
Patrick: Atlanta Braves - five years, $80 million
Marcell Ozuna had a very unlucky year with balls in play. He hits the ball extremely hard, and his batting line in 2019 was not representative of his skill. That being said, there are some concerns on the defensive side of things, and unless there's evidence that his arm has re-gained strength, putting him in right is a dicey proposition. The Braves have lots of payroll space and could use another corner outfielder.
Greg: Boston Red Sox - three years, $60 million
In my universe of picks, the Red Sox replace J.D. Martinez with Marcell Ozuna. The rumors of a $100+ million contract are absurd. In fact, if I can see any one player having to take a Donaldson-esque “prove it” deal it’s probably Ozuna. The Green Monster would be good for him.
Josh: Cincinnati Reds - four years, $80 million
While I think the New York Yankees will make the biggest splashes, I see Cincinnati making one big move, and that's adding Marcell Ozuna. An impact middle-of-the-order bat signing also helps Cincinnati weaken a divisional rival in St. Louis. I don't buy that Ozuna will net a $100 million+ deal this offseason, but I think he signs for more than Castellanos.
Didi Gregorius
Patrick: Milwaukee Brewers - four years, $70 million
With Brice Turang a ways off, the Brewers have a near-term need at shortstop and a team that's ready to win now. Gregorius could keep the good times rolling in Milwaukee. If Turang is pushing for a major league spot in the future, he can be traded.
Josh: Milwaukee Brewers - two years, $31 million
I agree with Patrick as Milwaukee had the worst production at shortstop in all of baseball this past season. While bringing back Grandal would be a big boost, so would Didi Gregorius. Brewers shortstops hit .210/.272/.333 and were worth -0.8 WAR, according to FanGraphs. They can't have that type of production again at shortstop if they hope to make the postseason three consecutive years.
Greg: Minnesota Twins - four years, $60 million
I think the Twins front office is really smart (must be nice) and this would be a really smart signing. He can start at second or third (pushing Miguel Sano to first) and join Minnesota’s army of fly ball crushers.
Jake Odorizzi
Patrick: Chicago White Sox - four years, $65 million
You know you can see them doing this, too.
Greg: Houston Astros - four years, $60 million
If the Astros lose Cole, they’ll need rotation depth so they don’t lean to heavily on Lance McCullers Jr. (returning from Tommy John) and top prospect Forrest Whitley (who really struggled in 2019). Odorizzi shouldn’t cost all that much relative to the top arms, and their analytics team would surely maximize his performance.
Josh: Minnesota Twins - three years, $42 million
While I had Jake Odorizzi in my offseason plan, I think the Minnesota Twins find a way to keep him as they currently have three openings in their starting rotation.
Dallas Keuchel
Patrick: St. Louis Cardinals - three years, $40 million
Dallas Keuchel's status as an aging, soft-tossing sinkerballer in a world that's going the other way might significantly limit what he's going to be able to get, along with the list of teams that might be interested. The draft pick compensation is gone, so that should be of some help, at least. The Cardinals have Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha as free agents and could use Keuchel to give them an innings boost.
Greg: Minnesota Twins - three years, $54 million
The Twins could lose 3/5ths of their rotation in Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, and Michael Pineda, so their need for innings is greater than their need for elite performance. Innings is exactly what Keuchel can deliver.
Josh: Los Angeles Angels - three years, $66 million
If the Yankees don't sign Gerrit Cole, I think he's heading to Anaheim. In either case, Dallas Keuchel makes sense for the Angels as they need multiple starters to help them be competitive in the AL West.
Will Smith
Patrick: Atlanta Braves - four years, $52 million
I'll point again to the Braves being in a good spot with their payroll. Every team could use Will Smith, but the Braves are in a great position to spend on him.
Greg: New York Yankees - three years, $36 million
Part of me wonders if the Yankees will reconsider their “sign every reliever” pitching staff plan in light of its postseason failures. But another part of me wonders if they’ll just double down on it.
Josh: New York Mets - three years, $40 million
The Mets had some disastrous late-inning relief appearances in 2019, and if they want to make the postseason in 2020, they have to add in this department. Will Smith would be an excellent fit for many teams, but I see the Mets landing him to help take on the high leverage situation workload with Edwin Diaz.
Mike Moustakas
Patrick and Greg: Washington Nationals - three years, $45 million
Moustakas would be a solid replacement if Rendon walks, helping to assure that the Nats can capably defend their title.
Josh: New York Mets - two years, $24 million
Todd Frazier is a free agent, and he was lackluster during his time with the Mets. Mike Moustakas would be a good fit here to replace Frazier or in Washington if the Nationals can't re-sign Anthony Rendon.
Cole Hamels
Patrick: Minnesota Twins - two years, $30 million
The starting rotation for the Twins is of significant concern. I would not be surprised at all if they brought in two significant names to help maximize their current window. Hamels feels like the combination of quality and avoidance of overly long-term commitment that the Twins have pursued for basically forever.
Josh: Philadelphia Phillies - one year, $20 million
Greg: Philadelphia Phillies - one year, $12 million
The Phillies watched an awful lot of innings from guys like Nick Pivetta and Jason Vargas in 2019. It makes almost too much sense for them to reunite with their erstwhile ace.
Yaisel Puig
Patrick: Baltimore Orioles - one year, $10 million
Here's the thing: Puig isn't actually good. I think interest in him will be minimal, and some team like Baltimore that doesn't have anything better to do might just bring him aboard for a low-risk one-year commitment in hopes that he makes himself into a flippable asset.
Greg: Texas Rangers - three years, $36 million
I have truly no idea who wants to sign up for the Puig experience. I’ve mentioned before that I love him, but he probably has a limited market coming off a down year. If the Rangers push in for Rendon, it makes sense to add upside elsewhere and push Willie Calhoun or Nomar Mazara to first base.
Josh: Oakland Athletics - one year, $10 million
I agree with Pnoles that Yaisel Puig is not great as he has not had a 2+ fWAR season since 2017. Puig is entertaining, though, and still can hit 20+ homers. I've got a feeling about Oakland taking advantage of a market that's concerned about Puig, and then watch him flourish with a bounce back season.
Avisail Garcia
Patrick: Detroit Tigers - one year, $10 million
The same logic here applies as with Puig. No competing team would greatly prefer to have either guy as a full-time starter in right field unless they have a gaping hole there, which most don't. Thus, I think Garcia finds himself a rebuilding team that might hope for him to catch lightning in a bottle.
Greg: San Francisco Giants - three years, $30 million
The Giants feel like a team that doesn’t want to be flat-out bad even as they rebuild, and Avi certainly isn’t bad, at least relative to guys like Steven Duggar and Austin Slater.
Josh: Arizona Diamondbacks - two years, $16 million
Arizona was a feisty team in the second half of 2019 challenging for the Wild Card. I don't see them making big splashes this offseason, but adding Avisail Garcia is a realistic target to replace Adam Jones.
