The Sox Machine Podcast returns next week, but in the meantime, here's some piping-hot P.O. Sox content from snowy Kansas City.
In a valiant attempt to uphold his promise to put a more positive spin on this mailbag, Asinwreck writes:
What was your happiest surprise of the 2019 season?
It comes down to Lucas Giolito potentially earning Cy Young votes to Tim Anderson winning the batting title. Both premises sound absurd to a pre-2019 Sox fan, and I don't know if I can distinguish a difference in degree of difficulty between the two.
If forced to pick, I think I'd give Giolito the edge, just because his peripherals make it a little more fun looking forward, whereas Anderson's batting title feels more the result of everything breaking right for one glorious season.
One fun leftover from the Bill James Handbook post: He singled out Giolito as somebody who threw as many innings as he was projected to in 2019, and just blew away just about all the other categories.
| IP | H | HR | BB | K | W | L | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected | 176 | 181 | 24 | 83 | 143 | 7 | 13 | 4.76 |
| Actual | 176.2 | 131 | 24 | 57 | 228 | 14 | 9 | 3.41 |
This is a little sturdier than Anderson's season, and so it's a little easier to build a pitching staff around him, as opposed to building a lineup around Anderson's hyperaggressive approach. Anderson also would've been more exciting if he were sounder in the field, but the way I look at it, he has multiple ways to offset expected regression even if he's never going to draw walks.
Kevin asks:
Five years ago the White Sox signed a pitcher (David Robertson) to a $46M deal and a hitter (Melky Cabrera) a $45M contract. Will the White Sox sign either a pitcher or hitter to larger deals this off-season?
I'm going to say "yes." I wouldn't bet on the White Sox landing any one of Anthony Rendon, Yasmani Grandal, Nick Castellanos, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburgg, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi or Madison Bumgarner versus "the field." However, the White Sox' needs are apparent enough that they should be able to land one of them to solve the starting pitching/left-handed power/corner bat conundrum, especially since I'd assume the free agent market will be as uncompetitive as it's been in previous years. A three-or-four-year deal for $50 or $60 million feels within the White Sox's reach at some point this winter.
Then again, they could acquire a larger deal without technically signing a player, as Andrew asks:
What would you feel comfortable offering Boston for one guaranteed year of JD Martinez? What would you feel comfortable accepting from Chicago for absorbing 65(?) million in possible payroll?
Which is related to Justin's question:
Do you think the White Sox front office would be better off using their payroll flexibility more in trades or a handful of free agent signings?
If new Red Sox GM Chaim Bloom is more concerned with unloading all the salary obligations to Martinez then getting anything back of Martinez-like value, I'd want to see if there's a bargain to be had. The White Sox possess an advantage over many other teams with their lack of payroll obligations, and they should wield it as such.
Castellanos is sitting on the open market as a lesser-but-younger version of Martinez to keep any team from getting too carried away, but Martinez theoretically puts a dent in the walk-to-strikeout chasm in a way Castellanos and others can't match, so that's a case where you get what you pay for.
Martinez's opt-out is a threat, because I imagine a DH would find it easier to opt out of a two-year deal than a three-year deal. It should also be another factor that reduces the asking price. The Jeff Samardzija trade is sitting there as a cautionary tale. It's not a great idea to give up a top-100 talent for one year of a guy who isn't going to put a team over the top by himself, and while Semien wasn't a top-100 prospect at the time, he looks like that material now, so he simulates the thought just the same. Jonathan Stiever and Micker Adolfo feels like an underpay, but maybe the conditions are such that the return is always going to be underwhelming on paper if cost-cutting is Job One.
Doug asks:
Do you think there is even a remote chance the Sox and Cubs will have a trade? The Cubs do need relief pitching.
The Cubs would be a decent trade partner for the White Sox, as Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward and Ian Happ might all be available for reasonable costs, and all address one White Sox issue or another on paper. I just don't know what the White Sox would have to offer in a trade that wasn't a salary dump. The Sox are in a position where they need all the help they can get from the players they have on hand, so trading one of the functioning pieces in an attempt to get greater function requires finesse and talent evaluation this front office hasn't shown.
For instance, I'm not opposed to an Aaron Bummer trade in theory, just because Jace Fry shows how effectiveness can be fleeting, and Bummer didn't miss as many bats in the second half. But the Sox don't have anybody who looks likely to take over Bummer's role internally, nor would I trust them to find a ready replacement on the open market. I'd respect the ambition, but doubt their ability to execute, which is kinda the plotline for this winter's episodes.
And finally, Lew asks:
Just curious -- what would it take for you to throw in the towel on the White Sox and take up with a smarter, less penurious team? Something even more frustrating than the Machado Affair?
I'm pretty much tied to the White Sox in terms of what I feel I bring to the table of the greater baseball world. The franchise is more or less defined by its ineptitude even before Jerry Reinsdorf, so I don't think sustained droughts would be enough to push me away from the Sox in particular. The difference is how much I allow it to bother me, which is less and less. I just get disappointed now, as opposed to angry or upset. I can always enjoy other teams, and relay what I enjoy about them to what the White Sox fail to provide. I've stopped depending on the White Sox as a boost, instead resorting to the edification of learning things and applying that knowledge. That's actually kinda healthy?
It'd probably take another 1994 situation, where Reinsdorf undermines his own team's chances for a financial advantage, for me to consider dropping it entirely. A new Montreal team would also help keep the White Sox honest. My primary headwear at the moment is the classic tri-color Expos cap, and one random stranger a day will stop me to talk about it on average. I'd recommend it to anybody who's single and looking to mingle, at least with men.
