I've spent the last 24 hours digging out from under 20 inches of snow and looking through your P.O. Sox questions. Here's what I have to show for the latter, with a post about baseball's non-tendering coming Tuesday morning.
From Doug:
Which pitchers do you think the Sox can get? Do you think that it is now too late Zack Wheeler? I say this because the Yankee's might give up on Cole and Strasbourg. What do you think of Hyun-Jin Ryu? Like Wheeler, his injury history worries me. I don't like Bumgarner because of fly balls that could turn into home runs at home. I like Keuchel but will Atlanta sign him?
And from Andrew:
Given the way that the Grandal signing appeared out of nowhere, does the news about the Sox pursuit of Wheeler make his signing very unlikely?
I'm not feeling any particular angst over Wheeler just yet, because it seems as though his pursuit will require patience regardless of who's buying. He's in a position to draft off the Gerrit Cole/Stephen Strasburg race, while teams gunning for the top two starters in the market can use him as a check on the market, so it has all the elements of a gradual process. unless some team wants to give him a Patrick Corbin deal and throw the signings out of order.
Regarding the other options, I liked Ryu the most, not only for his effectiveness around the injuries, but also for the international appeal. Matt Kelly of MLB.com made the case for the White Sox to make a run at him, although it's after a lengthy caveat that Ryu seems most likely to return to the Dodgers. The Twins are trying to lure him away from LA, which might be as good a reason as any to throw their hats in the ring. His effectiveness as a lefty starter against lefty hitters seems useful considering Guaranteed Rate Field was a launching pad for left-handed power.
Bumgarner seems like a National League pitcher for life due to the home run rate, and I'd probably prefer Keuchel over him.
Thinking lower, like Matthew:
If the White Sox miss all the Tier II pitchers, should they pivot to signing like 2-3 Tier III guys? Who do you think holds the most promise? I’m thinking Pineda, Wood and Roark...
Pineda went 4-0 against the White Sox last year, so he'd be my first choice -- except he's going to miss the first month-plus due to the PED suspension he started serving in September. If you want insurance against needing a post-surgery Michael Kopech in the rotation immediately, Pineda doesn't help there.
Roark gave up a ton of homers with Oakland in his first look at the American League, so I'd be inclined to rule him out. I probably like Alex Wood more than anybody if he's past his back problems, and Gio Gonzalez if he isn't. Kevin Gausman might be my favorite for illogical reasons, because he was non-tendered by the Reds for performance purposes. The White Sox can teach a slider, and they have a guy who can catch his splitter. Just sayin'.
From Asinwreck:
With Grandal already signed, what moves do you expect the Sox to make during the Winter Meetings?
I'm guessing some of these starters should be coming off the board around then, so that'd be my guess for the next move. I don't see them taking a pick in the Rule 5 draft, and we don't have to watch for prospects of note to be taken by other teams.
From Hunter:
There is some intriguing outfield/DH talent coming out of Japan this year with Shogo Akiyama and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo. The White Sox have shown interest in Japanese players in the past with Tadahito Iguchi and Masahiro Tanaka. Do you think the Sox will look to these players as short term solutions or pass for established major league free agents and trade candidates?
We're coming up on 15 years since the Iguchi signing, and their pursuit of Tanaka was a harmless version of the Manny Machado saga, where they knew they were going to finish second but wanted to use the stage to promote themselves. It just doesn't seem like they're all that invested in the overseas market, and there haven't been many players to make them regret their lack of involvement.
I have low hopes for any interest from the Sox, but I do kinda like the idea of Akiyama, who is one of the better left-handed on-base types in NPB, provided the broken foot he suffered doesn't hamper him too much going forward (Kelvin Herrera says be careful about assuming). He's a center fielder by trade, but the Sox could use a center fielder in right for once, and considering the foot injury and his age (he turns 32 in April), he might be amenable to a corner. Tsutsugo offers more power and is younger, but the strikeouts and poor defense contribute to a couple of existing issues, while Akiyama could help cut into some deficits.
From orajestad9:
Which Sox prospects could you see on the 25 man roster opening day 2020?
I wouldn't count on Madrigal or Robert unless they sign extensions, because that seems to be the way the White Sox do things. Kopech still counts as a prospect, and if he looks like one of the team's top five starters at the end of March, the Sox should see what he's got. Danny Mendick has a spot on the roster as long as Yolmer Sánchez is off it, and guys like Zack Burdi and Ian Hamilton have easier paths to the roster with good springs with guys like Ryan Burr and Thyago Vieira out of the way.
From Tom:
With the Sox salary flexibility this year would it make sense for them to front load free agent contracts to give them flexibility in the future?
Front-loading is something that makes more sense in theory (money matches performance) than practice (costs more than inflation, makes players vulnerable to trades), but I think it can make sense at certain times. That said, if they couldn't figure out a way to do it with Jose Abreu, whose initial acceptance of the qualifying offer was more than the average annual value of the three-year extension he signed, I'm guessing the Sox aren't that interested in trying to coax players into accepting it.
One exception -- if the Sox manage to be the high bidder for a player with a divisive market. Ian Desmond's deal is backloaded, and so is Eric Hosmer's. These aren't selling points, I don't think.
Lew asks:
Personally, has the age of metrics made you enjoy the game more or just understand it more?
Well, the White Sox haven't made the postseason during this era, so the age of metrics are working at a disadvantage when it comes to enjoying baseball from a White Sox fan's perspective.
If you can separate understanding from enjoyment -- there's edification in knowing stuff -- I'd say I enjoy the trees more than the forest. I think I appreciate a wider variety of players than I used to, because value emerges from all sorts of sources, and it's fun watching players who have mastered specific skills. (This isn't new to the age of metrics, but the standardization of Earl Weaver's outlook is something to behold.)
That said, the pursuit of value above all else makes for some very not-fun trends, whether it emerges in the tanking for draft pools, the arms race between strikeouts and homers, the dehumanizing tendencies of the Astros, and the way both of those things slow the game down. In this sense, I've learned to appreciate a team like the Reds, who are going for it despite the lack of an advisable window.
John asks:
There's been much discussion of what payroll "could" be. Big market, worldwide fashion appeal and "banked" rebuild money on one side, attendance, TV deal and lack of top brand partnerships on the other. Without running deficits, where is the payroll "limit" in the short and mid-term?
I think getting up to a median MLB payroll ($130 million) is reasonable for the short term. The Sox could spend more, but I don't think they're going to, and I can understand not wanting to blow their wad in one winter. The (re)introductions of key prospects in 2020 like Michael Kopech, Nick Madrigal and Luis Robert will show just how far the White Sox are from contending, and what kind of skills will be the most crucial to add. (That's why I wanted Robert up this past summer, and Eloy Jiménez the summer before that, but I digress).
They should be in the top third of the league after that, especially if they look like they have the goods for multiple postseason runs. The Sox have to generate their own excitement due to the lack of intrinsic drawing power, and their front office's lack of success. Now is not the time for scared money, because it tends to not make any.
