In a traditional free agent market, the players at the top of the market would set price for the rest of the field, and the agenda for the competition. Those who missed out on the ace would set their sights on the second tier, and that bidding would begin in earnest.
That isn't the case with Zack Wheeler's market. While the interest and bicoastal pursuit of Gerrit Cole just seems to be stirring in classic Scott Boras slow-play fashion, Wheeler's rumors are close to fevered pitch. They may already be, but it's been so long since the last aggressive early-December rumor mill that I can't tell if I've lowered my standards.
The evolution over the last 24 hours is a point in the favor of "fevered," I think. Jon Heyman established the White Sox are primary players:
Bob Nightengale, the White Sox front office's reporter of choice, echoed the sentiment:
Now here comes Buster Olney saying the Phillies want a piece:
Ken Rosenthal made an attempt to narrow down the field, which includes the Phillies:
Heyman heard the same thing, as did the New York Post's national baseball reporters. Apparently the White Sox and Reds don't think it's too late to celebrate the Black Sox Scandal, except the Sox are trying this time. The Phillies won only 47 games in 1919, and every single pitcher with a decision had a losing record, so I don't know what their deal is.
Wheeler's appeal is apparent, with the combination of the high-90s fastball, low-90s slider, strike-throwing and home-run suppression talents. His demerits -- midseason bout of shoulder fatigue, two years off due to Tommy John surgery, a 107 ERA+ despite said talents in his two seasons after recovering from TJS -- are reason to pause. Every team dreams of making the one tweak that allows his results to align with his stuff. Every team should be prepared for mild frustration after failing to do so, because Wheeler wouldn't be the first to perpetually tease.
The good news is that the White Sox can use a pitcher anywhere on Wheeler's spectrum of outcomes. They'd love an ace, but would handily benefit from Wheeler's current No. 2-starter status. Even if he managed to take a step back like so many White Sox free agent signings, he'd still slot in comfortably ahead of everybody who isn't Lucas Giolito. As long as he's healthy, he has the healthiest margin for error any free agent starter who isn't Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg, and the White Sox need all the forgiveness possible.
The other good news is that, should Wheeler require an uncomfortably long commitment, the White Sox are well-positioned to absorb that. If the rebuild works, the fifth or sixth year can be regarded like the back end of the Jon Lester and Patrick Corbin deals (as in, who cares). If it fails -- and if Wheeler is a contributing factor -- they'll be in a position they were before, waiting for a deal to expire a la John Danks or James Shields. The point of rebuilding was to reset the payroll and allow the Sox to take big swings. As we've seen from their free agent history, they're even worse when they opt for smaller signings. Individually, Felipe Paulino, Derek Holland and Ervin Santana are low-risk propositions. As a group, they take a massive toll.
In fact, the rebuild is supposed to allow a large-market team like the White Sox to take Cole-sized swings, but if the Wheeler front is developing faster than Cole's, then so be it. I wouldn't advise the Sox to hold off on other plans while running in third place for a Scott Boras client, especially if that client will likely be fielding offers after Wheeler's landing spot is resolved.
