White Sox have addressed their home run problem

Feels a lot longer than three and a half months ago when I wrote about the Chicago White Sox home run problem. At the time, the White Sox were staring down a -62 home run differential, but it did improve before the season’s end. The offense generated 182 home runs, which ranked 25th in baseball, and the pitching allowed 238 home runs ranked 10th in most allowed. While improving the differential by six home runs in the last two weeks of the season, the 2019 White Sox -56 home run differential tied for third-worst in franchise history.

As the White Sox leave the rebuilding years behind and charter to contending waters, their front office should be applauded for the moves made this offseason. In five weeks, the White Sox have signed Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion, and traded for Nomar Mazara. Yes, the White Sox had money to be spent, and even after the signings, they’re still below league average in payroll (estimated $117 million after Encarnacion signing). Who they have added is vital as the home run problem has been addressed, and if the projections come true, it should be a promising sign for the upcoming 2020 season.

Here are the breakdowns on how the White Sox have improved using Steamer projections from FanGraphs.

Starting Pitching

White Sox starting pitchers in 2019 allowed 157 home runs, third-most in the majors. Reynaldo Lopez allowed the most with 35 and followed by Ivan Nova with 30. The signing of Keuchel replaces Nova, and Steamer is projecting four fewer home runs allowed by that switch. A much more significant gain is if Gonzalez can carry a full season’s worth of work. Steamer is only projecting 24 starts out of Gonalez in 2020, with 22 home runs allowed. Hopefully, Gonzalez can exceed 24 starts as he’ll be taking the work away from Manny Banuelos, Ross Detwiler, and Dylan Covey. That trio in 2019 combined for 32 starts and allowed 44 home runs. That’s a big opportunity for the White Sox to cut down on the home run differential.

Keuchel and Gonzalez will help and (knock on wood) should be better than Nova, Banuelos, Detwiler, and Covey last season. Steamer is still projecting the White Sox starters to allow 155 home runs in 2020 because it forecasts an increase allowed by Lucas Giolito.

ZiPS disagrees with Steamer on Giolito’s output for 2020 as it projects only 23 home runs allowed for the White Sox ace. That’s about spot on where Giolito was in 2019 as he only allowed 24 home runs for the season. White Sox need Giolito to duplicate his 2019 performance to have a chance in winning the AL Central division in 2020, and if he can, the starting staff could see a decrease of 10-plus home runs allowed. Not a significant reduction, but it helps.

Another item to touch on when it comes to White Sox pitchers in 2020 is finding a way to cut the home runs allowed at Guaranteed Rate Field. Even though their metrics were better at home than away, White Sox pitchers allowed 141 home runs at Guaranteed Rate Field to just 97 on the road.

Combined with the bullpen projections, the 2020 White Sox team is forecasted to allow 220 to 230 home runs.

Offense

While adding Keuchel and Gonzalez will help bring a slight reduction in home runs allowed, the biggest gain comes from adding Grandal, Mazara, and Encarnacion. Especially the latter two as White Sox designated hitters and right fielders were awful in 2019.

https://twitter.com/cowhitchurch/status/1210006790835986433?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

White Sox DHs in 2019: 17 HR, .356 Slug pct.

No AL team had a lower Slug pct at the DH position, and only the Tigers had fewer HR (16).

Edwin Encarnación in 2019: 34 HR, .531 Slug pct.

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) December 26, 2019

Steamer is projecting double-digit gains in home runs at right field, catcher, designated hitter, and center field for the White Sox. Encarnacion is projected for 33 home runs, followed by Grandal at 26 and Mazara at 25, which would be a career-high for the former Texas Ranger. Add in Luis Robert’s rookie forecast of 22 home runs plus another year of Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, and Tim Anderson, and the projected home run total is 260 for 2020. The franchise record is 242 home runs hit by the 2004 White Sox.

If that projection comes to fruition, the White Sox will go from a -56 home run differential in 2019 to a plus-28 home run differential in 2020; an 84 home run swing. Based on 2019 league results, 260 home runs would have an estimate run total of 845 (Math details; Y=1.8318x+368.49 which x= home runs), which will be needed as Steamer projects the 2020 White Sox pitching staff to allow 826 runs. Using a handy Pythagorean Expected Wins calculator and that run differential total would put the 2020 White Sox record at 83-79. Short of the win total to win the division, but if run prevention efforts find a way to chop 100 runs off the projected 826 total, that record boosts up to 93-69.

There are ways that the White Sox can still improve upon their home run problem, especially on the pitching side, but the work that Rick Hahn and the front office have already put in this offseason will help quite a bit. Manager Rick Renteria only had five above-average hitters to work with last season (wRC+ or OPS+ >100). He might have as many as nine above-average hitters if Mazara, Robert, and Madrigal break out in 2020. Or, maybe the White Sox sign Yasiel Puig to help out in RF with Mazara. Either way, there are good reasons for White Sox fans to get excited about this team’s chances of contending in the American League Central while watching more flyballs leave the park.