In the wake of the White Sox acquiring Nomar Mazara, Dan Szymborski released the 2020 Chicago White Sox ZiPS projections at FanGraphs.
Are these items connected? No, it's just a coincidence. But because the projections post arrived after the trade, it does include Mazara's projections with the Sox, which clocks in at .252/.307/.439. That's good for an OPS+ of 99 and a WAR of 0.9, which would be both utterly pedestrian and his best season by those measures.
The good news? The White Sox's biggest offseason addition indeed plays that way in the projection world. Yasmani Grandal clocks in at .234/.358/.451, good for an OPS+ of 118 and a team-leading WAR of 4.5. That's especially attractive on a team that doesn't have an All-Star version of James McCann, but one of the Detroit editions instead (0.4 WAR).
Five other things that jump out to me:
Tim Anderson: His projection is one of those that makes one wonder whether ZiPS just spits out averages:
- 2019: .274/.301/.443, 99 OPS+
- Career: .276/.303/.435, 98 OPS+
That line also makes me think, "Isn't that basically Alexei Ramirez?" After checking, not quite. Anderson's career has the edge over Ramirez's first seven years (.277/.314/.405, 92 OPS+).
Ramirez parlayed that decent performance into an above-average profile due to sterling defense and availability, and he averaged 3 WAR a season that wasn't appreciated in real time.
Anderson's projections only amount to a 1.9 WAR season because ZiPS doesn't like his glove, and it probably shouldn't. His batting title covered for his defensive deterioration, and if he could be counted upon to hit .335 (or post a .350 OBP) every season, he could absorb those mistakes. If he reverts to his career numbers, however, he's going to have to be more of a complete package a la Ramirez to contribute to a winner.
Yoan Moncada: His breakout 2020 helped shift his personal Overton window considerably, because his projections now lead his career numbers:
- 2019 ZiPS: .234/.320/.406, 99 OPS+
- 2019 actual: .315/.367/.548, 141 OPS+
- 2020 ZiPS: .274/.341/.483, 121 OPS+
- Career: .265/.338/.458, 114 OPS+
Projection systems didn't capture the very human decision Moncada made to attack pitches earlier in the count in order to prevent the caught-looking strikeouts that undermined his first full season. I wonder if that's going to be the next way Moncada foils algorithms, because he has the batting eye to walk more than 50 times a year on a reliable basis ... if working that deep into count doesn't automatically result in 200 strikeouts along with it.
Great comps: ZiPS slaps an Adam Jones comp on the White Sox's top prospect, and I'd take that outcome. The Sox could use it sooner than later, because the graphic on the FanGraphs post shows how much the outfield needs something that approaches above-average:
Yermin Mercedes' top comp is Dan Wilson, while Zack Collins gets Tom Wilson.
Nick Madrigal's top comp is Nellie Fox because of course it is.
Michael Kopech: He's about to embark on his first full season after recovering from Tommy John surgery, so between the rust and the learning curve, I'd happily take a 3.93 ERA and a 2.4 WAR season.
That said, Szymborski said that middle-of-the-road projection still doesn't reflect what the system actually thinks of Kopech. He says the system is still "bimodal" on Kopech, meaning it mostly seems him as a hit or a miss, without much in between. Last year's ZiPS projections went into more detail:
Kopech has the most bifurcated ZiPS projections I can remember; instead of some variant of a pretty little curve over some projected midpoint, it was bimodal.
In layman’s terms, ZiPS thought there was a better chance that Kopech would be a star or a scrub than simply a league-average pitcher. In the last year, ZiPS has been leaning more to the good side than the bad. Kopech had progressed to the point where, in terms of his rest-of-career value, ZiPS saw him as the No. 14 pitcher in the majors. The only other rookie-eligible pitcher in the top 50 is Mike Soroka.
Bernardo Flores: He's tied with Dylan Cease for the second-highest projected WAR total of any White Sox starter:
- Lucas Giolito, 4.1
- Bernardo Flores, 1.4
- Dylan Cease, 1.4
- Reynaldo Lopez, 1.3
- Michael Kopech, 1.3
I'm not quite sure how Flores gets to that level with a 13 percent strikeout rate, a 4.65 FIP, but I suppose his 3.04 ERA over 28 starts at Birmingham the last two seasons has to count for something. That projection is great for him on an individual level, but his place in this big picture is one indicator that the Sox need to acquire multiple starting pitchers this winter. I mean, for all his problems staying healthy in Boston, David Price has every non-Giolito starter beat, which is why a conversation about him is such a confusing combination of problematic and proactive.
