Back in Sox Machine B.C., I had planned to size up the White Sox's PECOTA percentiles against their AL Central competition to get a better idea of what they actually accomplished during the offseason, and how much still needed to break their way.
Now, this exercise merely takes a snapshot of what lay ahead for the White Sox after their active winter, and before this nuclear winter.
Here's how the White Sox stacked up against the Twins and Indians, according to their "Playing the Percentiles" pieces. I've highlighted what strikes me as the most realistic path to contention.
| %ile | Twins | Indians | White Sox |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 109-53 | 103-59 | 101-61 |
| 80 | 104-58 | 98-64 | 95-67 |
| 70 | 100-62 | 94-68 | 91-71 |
| 60 | 98-64 | 91-71 | 87-75 |
| 50 | 94-68 | 86-76 | 83-79 |
| 40 | 90-72 | 82-80 | 79-83 |
| 30 | 86-76 | 78-84 | 74-88 |
| 20 | 81-81 | 74-88 | 70-92 |
| 10 | 74-88 | 68-94 | 65-97 |
This chart naturally favors the pessimist, because even after three hard years of rebuilding and a lot of offseason moves, the White Sox need a three-percentile gap to just edge out Minnesota, and with a team in between them.
That said, it's an achievement that charting a course to the top of the Central was no longer an exercise in futility, and the White Sox didn't empty out their resources to get into such a position.
Of course, it's so very White Sox that a pandemic had to spread around the world before we had a chance to see how any of this goes down. But I'd argue that the timing is even worse for the Twins, who saw their own rebuild come to fruition with a Central title last year, a clear projection lead this year, and the need to rid themselves of the aftertaste from their absurd 15-game postseason losing streak.
There's a reason why this tweet exists.
Brian Cashman when he gets to pick the Yankees playoff opponent pic.twitter.com/sjHQehpNDf
— Jon Berti Enjoyer (@yankees6432) March 5, 2020
If life itself is difficult to imagine after the coronavirus works its way through the country, I'm inclined to think these projections can be crumpled up and thrown out. OK, maybe there isn't a path for the Tigers unless the cure for COVID-19 is found in the flesh of other AL Central opponents, but after a shortened or lost season, I wouldn't have all that much faith in algorithms interpreting an unprecedented disaster with any kind of precision. That sucks for a team that finally projects over .500 for the first time in forever, but this is the one time it's better to be a third-place team. Take comfort wherever you can get it.
