Five mock drafts went live this week, and the White Sox raised their batting average on Patrick Bailey from .750 to .800.
The White Sox remain the consensus landing spot for the switch-hitting catcher out of NC State, mostly because the top four college starters are all off the board, and all the evaluators don't trust the White Sox to earnestly pursue prep players. That's a reasonable assumption when accounting for the combination of their track record and the uncertainty in the low levels of the minors leading to the release of hundreds of minor leaguers. (As we discussed Thursday morning, the White Sox's cuts all seemed aimed at clearing out the chunk of the talent that would fill Great Falls.)
That said, when reading about what happens through the first 10 picks, it seems like all the evaluators are still counting on teams acting relatively rationally. If any teams are going to cheap out up top, they haven't yet tipped their hands.
Keith Law (May 28)
White Sox select: Patrick Bailey, C, NC State
Previous mock: Bailey
Law posted the most recent draft, but it adopts the default position, with the White Sox bringing in Bailey without much elaboration.
Law's take: "Bailey is an offensive catcher but projects to stay at the position long-term, fitting the White Sox philosophy of going college in the first round even if they want to take higher-ceiling high school guys later."
MLB.com (May 27)
White Sox select: Bailey
Previous mock: Bailey
Jim Callis also settles on Bailey, but he brings up a number of prep players. One of them is high school catcher Tyler Soderstrom, who figures prominently elsewhere.
Callis' take: "The first round starts to get a lot murkier around here. Bailey keeps getting mentioned at No. 11 if none of the best college pitchers make it this far. The White Sox also are doing a lot of work on the top high school hitters (Hassell, Pennsylvania outfielder Austin Hendrick, Illinois shortstop Ed Howard, California catcher Tyler Soderstrom) and pitchers (Oregon's Mick Abel, Texas' Jared Kelley and Pennsylvania's Nick Bitsko, all right-handers)."
Baseball America (May 27)
White Sox select: Bailey
Previous mock: Bailey
See? Here's another Soderstrom sighting. Carlos Collazo just has the White Sox going with Bailey because of so much uncertainty elsewhere in the game.
Collazo's take: "The White Sox are one of several teams who have been linked to Soderstrom, the top catcher in the high school class. We have them instead going with Bailey, the top catcher in the class period. Like Kjerstad, Bailey is a player whose lengthy collegiate track record and experience with Team USA will be invaluable in the shortened 2020 format. He sounds like a lock to be off the board among the first 15 picks."
FanGraphs (May 27)
White Sox select: Garrett Mitchell, CF, UCLA
In his first mock draft, Eric Longenhagen zigs where others have zagged, although not necessarily due to White Sox preference. In his mock, Bailey goes to Colorado at No. 9, leaving the White Sox to mull over the BCHA (Best Collegiate Hitter Available). That leads him to Mitchell, who is a top-10 prospect in terms of talent, but faces doubts about his ceiling due to Type I diabetes, questionable in-game power and absence from wood-bat circuits.
Longenhagen's take: "The White Sox’s new scouting director, Mike Shirley, is an internal hire, so most other teams expect the team to stay the course with college players at the top of the draft. In this range that means Bailey, Kjerstad, and Mitchell."
ESPN.com (May 26)
White Sox select: Bailey
Previous mock: Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
We wrap up with Kiley McDaniel joining the fold by settling on Bailey since the usual suspects are off the board. He also has teams targeting Bailey higher, giving the Pirates a 20 percent chance of drafting him seventh, and the Rockies giving him consideration at No. 9 (Colorado is also considering Soderstrom there).
McDaniel's take: "Chicago is looking for college bats, and Bailey fits this pick very well in terms of value and the White Sox's system. It's a common connection in the industry."
(Photo of Patrick Bailey by Greg Thompson/Icon Sportswire)
