2020 MLB Draft: Which strategy will the White Sox use?

In just a few hours, Major League Baseball will begin the 2020 MLB Draft under a lot of uncertainty. It doesn’t appear negotiations between the owners and players association are making any ground in a compromise to play in 2020, and because of money issues, some teams may spend as little as possible in this year’s draft.

There is an opportunity for a team like the White Sox to take advantage of by spending the cash to restock their farm system.

Strategy: Repeat 2019

After signing Andrew Vaughn to the full slot value ($7.22 million), the White Sox last year went over the bonus slot amount for Matthew Thompson and Andrew Dalquist. Both received around $2 million each, and to stay within the draft pool budget, the White Sox used round 5 - 10 picks on college seniors who had no leverage when negotiating bonuses. Six players received $10,000 each, and the White Sox took the $1,351,000 saved to sign both Thompson and Dalquist.

Fast forward to 2020, and the White Sox don’t have the same luxury of working with 40 rounds to pull this same strategy off. However, they could use an adjusted version of last year’s plan. The approach would give the first-round pick full slot value ($4,547,500). In rounds 2 and 3, the White Sox go over their slot values to draft prep players. Pick 47 has a slot value of $1,580,200, and Pick 83 has a slot value of $733,100.

Pick 112 in the fourth round has a slot value of $517,400, and the final pick has a slot value of $386,600. Knowing that after the draft players can only sign to a maximum of $20,000, the White Sox could use the fourth and fifth-round picks on college seniors offering $20,000 to $25,000. That's far below the slot value, but possibly more than what these players could sign for undrafted. If the White Sox can sign two players for $50,000, they could use $854,000 in savings to go over the slot amount in the second and third rounds.

Split the savings in half and distribute evenly, and the White Sox could offer $2,007,200 for Pick 47 and $1,160,100 for Pick 83. Those amounts would equal to Pick 37 and Pick 60 in the draft, and it could be enough to entice prep players to forgo their college commits. Possible options would be RHP Jared Jones for the second round, and 3B Yohandy Morales in the third round.

What the White Sox draft class could look like using this strategy:

Strategy: Give It the Old College Try

From 2013 to 2018, the White Sox only selected four prep players in the first five rounds. They went heavy on college players, and after the coronavirus shut down baseball in March, it is a realistic possibility the White Sox return to this strategy.

One problem with this strategy is the White Sox won’t be alone. Many analysts are expecting close to 80 percent of the players selected in this year’s draft to come from the college ranks. They have long track records, many got a chance to play games in 2020, and negotiating bonuses is more straightforward. White Sox could just stick with the bonus slot values and don’t have to play games signing draftees.

What the White Sox draft class could look like using this strategy:

Strategy: Shoot the Moon

This strategy is a nod to our friends over at From the 108, where they enjoy chaos.

What if the White Sox decide to ignore the budget and decide it is worth the financial penalties for going over the slot amount on every pick? No team in the first round wants to give Jared Kelley Top 20 money? The White Sox sign him for $3 million at Pick 47. Does no team want to provide Jared Jones $2 million? The White Sox dish out the dough for Jones at Pick 83.

What would be the consequences of going this bold? The penalties for going over the allocated draft pool:

<5% of draft pool: 75% tax on the amount over
5.1% to 10% over: 75% tax on the amount over and loss of 2021 first-round pick
10 to 15% over: 100% tax on the amount over and loss of 2021 first and second-round picks
More than 15%: 100% tax on the amount over and loss of 2021 and 2022 first-round picks

The White Sox 2020 Draft bonus pool is $7,764,800, or displayed by penalty levels:
<5% = $8,153,040, $291,180 in tax penalties
10% = $8,541,280, $582,360 in tax penalties and loss of 2021 first round pick
15% = $8,929,520, $1,164,720 in tax penalties and loss of 2021 first and second round picks
More than 15% = General Manager can start packing their office

Admittingly it would be fun to see a team blow up their draft pool and going all-in on one draft class. Very unrealistic and most likely would cost a general manager their job. Still, it would be fun for everyone else watching it unfold. It would most likely be an all prep class as they are more expensive to sign later on in the draft.

What the White Sox draft class could look like using this strategy:

Strategy: Go Under Slot in Round 1

By far, the most popular questions leading up to the draft are “What if Team X signs a player under the slot amount in the first round? Who could they sign later with the savings?”

This strategy is more plausible for a team like Baltimore that has the second pick but also pick 30. Most likely, there still will be first-round graded prep players on the board that wants Top 20 pick money that teams passed on. Instead of Austin Martin, Baltimore could pick 2B Nick Gonzales and sign him to $6 million. That’s a savings of $1.7 million that they could push to Pick 30 and offer $4 million to a draftee. That’s a route that could land a prep player like Austin Hendrick or Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Back to the White Sox, if the draft team wanted to take this route, this is where picking SS Ed Howard makes sense. His talent would help address a need within the farm system (middle infield depth), and Howard is the best shortstop in this draft class. In my mock draft, I have Howard going to Cleveland at Pick 23, which has a slot value of $2,926,800.

Let’s say it takes $3.5 million for Howard to sign at Pick 11. The White Sox would save $1 million that they could use at Pick 47 to offer $2,580,000, which is late first-round money. Again, they could draft and sign a prep pitcher like Jared Jones, or convince a college pitcher like Auburn’s RHP Tanner Burns to wait a day to have his name called.

On paper, it seems like an easy job to pull off. In reality, there are many moving parts, and all it takes is one team to blow up the entire strategy taking your player regardless of signability.

What the White Sox draft class could look like using this strategy:

Draft Preference

Josh: If I were in the White Sox virtual war room, I’d be an advocate of trying the 2019 Draft strategy again. I have a feeling many prep players are going to fall as teams are uneasy making commitments on anyone who didn’t see any action this spring. This could be an excellent opportunity for the White Sox to take advantage and add better talent in rounds 2 and 3.

My wish for the first-round pick is Reid Detmers. I think he will be a dependable starting pitcher and will be major league ready in 2022. Adding Detmers would greatly help the White Sox address their starting pitching depth.

Jim: I'd be more for two or three prep players if I were certain what the lowest rungs of the MLB development ladder are going to look like. If short-season ball is completely quashed in favor of complex clubs, it might not affect immediate plans, but I don't have as strong a concept of what rosters will look like, nor the level of competition. I don't think I want to overcommit to that uncertainty.

Of the pitchers likely to be available, I like Detmers more than Crochet. I get the appeal of Crochet -- especially if he can be signed under slot -- but I don't believe the White Sox have a preternatural ability to keep high-octane arms healthier than the rest of the league. For similar reasons, I'm not convinced high school pitchers are a great call.

I think I'm more drawn to the idea of Tyler Soderstrom, whose ability to cover different positions where the Sox lack depth gives him more ways to survive the grind. Ed Howard also has that going for him up the middle. There's the Amateur City Elite pull, but Corey Ray is a cautionary tale for getting hung up on that one element. Beyond that, Baseball America has the Dodgers on him, and Jeren Kendall aside, I'll have what they're having.

That's a lot of names, so let me hedge less and put it in an order: Soderstrom, Detmers, Howard.