Dane Dunning will be making his major-league debut tonight, and just like Zack Burdi before him, it'll occur under a far different context than the White Sox originally imagined.
It's been more than two years since Dunning walked off the mound under supervision of a trainer in the fourth inning of a game against Montgomery. Most of the delay was up front, as he and the White Sox waited until surgery was absolutely necessary, and it became so during spring training in 2019. Eleven and a half months after his surgery, he was throwing live batting practice during spring training before the pandemic intervened. Best anybody can tell, nothing about the surgery and rehabilitation itself warped the timeline.
Regardless, plenty changed in those two years.
One start before Dunning got injured, he struck out 10 Chattanooga Lookouts over eight shutout innings, giving him a 2.78 ERA over 10 starts. He looked maybe a month or two away from an audition for a role in a White Sox rotation that also featured trademates Reynaldo López (3.26 ERA!) and Lucas Giolito (7.09 ERA!). With Adam Eaton on the shelf with an ankle injury a year after knee surgery wiped out his 2017, Dunning could secure a trade victory simply by making the majors.
Smash-cut to August 2020, where Giolito is now the given, and López the giant question mark. Also, Eaton overcame his leg injuries and played a significant role in the Washington Nationals' World Series title in 2019. Oh, and there's a pandemic that wiped out the entire minor league baseball season and requires prospects like Dunning to finish developing themselves in alternate training sites that fall short of providing genuine competition.
This can be a golden opportunity for Dunning, because the fifth starter job is his for the taking. Rick Hahn said López should be able to return from his shoulder inflammation by the end of the month with Carlos Rodón projected for a later date, but neither can be counted upon. Also, given that the injury bug qualifies as an invasive species this year, the Sox will probably need innings from multiple pitchers who haven't yet consumed any.
But if Dunning can't capitalize on this vacancy or any others, it won't be for a lack of wanting it enough. I used Tarik Skubal's debut for Detroit on Tuesday to gird myself for a Dunning start. They both left off in the same spot before their interruptions, which was immediate success at Double-A. Both have their own obstacles -- Skubal's summer camp was delayed by COVID-19 -- and now both pitchers have a lot less help than usual in figuring out the last mile.
Skubal's debut was instructive. His fastball had velocity, but not a whole lot else. His breaking balls had inconsistent amounts of bite. Tim Anderson exposed both, getting around on a fastball for a leadoff homer, then manipulating the batter's box to lure Skubal into a slider to his liking. Skubal threw 52 pitches over two innings, after which Ron Gardenhire pulled him. Meaningful morale-boosters would have to wait another day.
But after 52 pitches, only 33 strikes and few of them sharp, Gardenhire and Anderson agreed Skubal was done. His big-league debut ended after two lackluster innings.
“He was tired,” Gardenhire said. “I could tell. He was really sweating. He had to work pretty hard through those first couple innings.”
Detroit's lineup isn't as dangerous as the White Sox's, but it still features major-league hitters who want to demoralize him. That's something Schaumburg can't provide. Even without fans, the stadium still has three decks, so adrenaline management will be paramount. If Dunning can hand the game to Ross Detwiler after three innings with the game within reach and some moments to take home, it'll be hard to complain. Casey Mize, the fellow rookie and top prospect who will make his major-league debut for Detroit, will be sopping up most of the attention, anyway.
At a minimum, I'll consider it a victory if Dunning can post up some representative Statcast data and get out with his health intact. With the White Sox approaching a dozen midgame injury removals in just 24 games, that's not as low a bar as it used to be.
