It'd been more than two years since Dane Dunning last threw a pitch in anger, at least in a way that we could see and analytics systems could track.
Everybody and everything should have liked what they saw on Wednesday night, at least for four innings.
Much like Zack Burdi, Dunning's debut might have been delayed, and an emergency might have necessitated his presence, but no matter how it happened, he looked ready for the moment. including every line drive that intended to rearrange his teeth.
He challenged an underwhelming Detroit lineup to meet his energy, and Jeimer Candelario is the only one that did on a reliable basis. Unfortunately, one of Candelario's swings resulted in a three-run homer that ended Dunning's night, and briefly put him in line for the loss.
In a must-win situation -- and Wednesday's game didn't qualify as such -- Rick Renteria should have pulled Dunning after the fourth. He barely got out of that inning alive, his release point had dropped, his fastball and slider both started sailing, and the velocity of both pitches had tailed off. A rest in the dugout failed to give him a boost. Statcast says he topped out at 92.2 mph on his five fastballs in the fifth inning, when he'd averaged 92.9 mph on his heaters in the first inning.
Dunning admitted as such, saying on the Zoom call after the game, "I felt really good throughout the entire outing, more or less. Later on, I felt like I was getting a little tired. I was missing spots a little bit more."
Renteria saw the same thing.
"In the fourth, obviously, he got into a little bit of a deeper count," Renteria said. "It got a little heavier in the fifth in terms of his command, maybe tiring a little bit, was elevating pitches, wasn't as in the zone."
So if they all saw it, then why didn't they do anything about it? Or, if you trust that everybody is a professional with a reason for what they're doing, what did they want to get out of it?
It's not immediately apparent, because Renteria wouldn't lock in Dunning for another start just yet. The White Sox have two off days next week, meaning they can skip their fifth starter and still give the other four an extra day of rest. The return of Reynaldo López also looms, although one can question which one gives them a better opportunity for the win. Either way, Dunning theoretically* won't be back for 10 days, because the White Sox optioned him to Schaumburg this morning.
(*Injuries can allow a player to be a called up before the option period expires, so any caveats should be apparent.)
Whether it's because Dunning will be needed later rather than sooner, or because he'll have an opportunity for a generous recovery period, the White Sox might've seen some value in pushing him in a competitive environment that Schaumburg won't provide. Dunning's pitch count reflected no apparent taxing, although nothing's a real strong argument against injury risk this year besides Michael Kopech's strategy.
Knocking on wood, he's likely not one-and-Dunning, so if and when he returns to take more starts this season, he's at least set a level of expectations for himself. He's not going to strike out 37 percent of the batters he faces from here on out, but he should be able to compete against better lineups, especially when he can throw that hammer curve in any count. Dunning's not as renowned for his breaking ball as several previous White Sox prospects, but he showed an immediate aptitude for throwing sharp hooks in the majors, unlike López, Lucas Giolito, Carson Fulmer, and even Dylan Cease.
Stamina is going to be the bigger issue, especially against teams that can make him work a little harder. I wouldn't count on Schaumburg being able to turn him into a six-inning guy this season. The White Sox can still use less. I just imagine the best strategy involves Ross Detwiler, and his usage pattern still confuses me, as he's thrown just three single low-leverage innings over the last fortnight and change.
What Renteria thinks of Detwiler is a discussion for another day. What Renteria thought of Dunning's debut is a little more clear, telling reporters, "For his first outing in the big leagues? Very, very, very, very good outing for him."
Who knows exactly when Renteria and the White Sox will come calling for a second start. For now, Dunning did his part. He made it clear that if a rotation spot remains vacant the next time all five starters are required, giving him another look is the smartest move available.
