Downer Ending – A Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

2:00 PM CDT on August 25, 2020

Avert your eyes. No one thought things would be quite this bad. That's not to say that there were people lining up to pick Pittsburgh as a sleeper team or anything, but just seven wins at this point in the season? That's a level of futility to discourage someone with even the lowest of expectations for the Bucs.

Then again, if you look at the Pirates' roster, you'll find that other than a few recognizable ex-prospect names, it's a smattering of people you've never heard of and guys you'd be shocked to know are still in The Show. They have the lowest team wOBA in baseball and a pitching staff that has the highest walk rate in the league by a fairly comfortable margin. Josh Bell, who's supposed to be the designated Guy on Bad Team Who Can Actually Hit, has only managed two home runs and has a slugging percentage beginning with '2'. Jarrod Dyson and Gregory Polanco have started 29 games combined and have just eight hits apiece. All of Dyson's are (obviously) singles, but six of Polanco's have gone for extra bases; he just hit his second single of the season on Sunday.

Third baseman Erik Gonzalez has been a reserve in his first four seasons in the majors, but he's now starting for the Pirates every day. He's led off the last three games for the team and hasn't drawn a walk in 66 plate appearances. Gonzalez displaced second baseman Adam Frazier from the leadoff spot. Frazier's a fine second-division starter at the keystone, and carries a respectable .275/.336/.416 career batting line, but like many other Pirates, he's woefully struggled, and just got his average up to .200 on Sunday with a 1-for-4 day.

Shortstop Kevin Newman rode the 5th-lowest strikeout rate in the majors to a .308 batting average last season, but without sufficient secondary skills, a 30-point drop in BABIP this season has caused his performance to dip from "solid regular" to "bench guy". He's stretched at short and has the makings of a good utility player, once he finds a team good enough to put him in that role. He left Pittsburgh's last game with right lower-abdominal muscle discomfort, so we'll see what sort of shape he's in. Left fielder Bryan Reynolds had a very strong rookie season for the Pirates last year, but a fair chunk of it may have been a BABIP (.387) mirage. The strikeouts have ticked up, and his current average (.220) is almost a full hundred points south of last year's (.314).

There's been a couple bright spots in the Pittsburgh lineup, even if they don't come close to outweighing all the suck. Catcher Jacob Stallings is riding an OBP close to .400, which is partially due to a similarly-.400 BABIP and partially due to a strong walk rate. He's performed well defensively behind the plate, so there's a lot to like here. Colin Moran has six home runs on the young season, which is a significant improvement on his previously middling power performance. Despite hitting well, the Pirates are becoming acutely aware that he's a poor defender, and he's being phased off the hot corner to divvy up 1B/DH with Bell. Another issue for Moran was his collision with Avisail Garcia Sunday, which sent him into the concussion protocol.

The Pirates' pitching has been suspect, especially in the absence of number-one starter Joe Musgrove. Trevor Williams has been their strongest pitcher in his stead, and the White Sox will get him on Wednesday. An improved changeup has been behind his success this year, and it's a key development because as a righty with a low-90s fastball without much carry or ability to generate grounders, Williams really needed something to distinguish himself. Steven Brault will be the starter in tonight's matchup, and the lefty out of Regis University seems like he's just being stretched out, posting a five-inning start for the first time in his last outing. He melted down and allowed four runs without an out in his lone relief appearance, but has yet to allow a run in any of his four (albeit short) starts.

We can't be sure who the Sox will face during the second two-game series, but it's likely Musgrove will rejoin the rotation by then. Old friend(?) Derek Holland is also in this rotation somehow. He had a nice one-season renaissance in 2018 thanks to an increased reliance on his slider, but since then, Holland's nemesis -- the dingers -- have come back, even if the higher strikeout rate remains. Chad Kuhl was a respectable midrotation starter before missing all of last season with elbow surgery, and that tag still seems to hold now that he's through it. A 97 percent strand rate and a .182 BABIP has his ERA looking rosy as ever, but those will come back to earth. Kuhl's slider is a strong swing-and-miss offering, but he doesn't get very many ground balls for a sinkerballer and loud contact against his two-seamer is common.

* * * * * * * * *

The White Sox' bats may have been quieted by Yu Darvish on Sunday, but he's an ace, and they shouldn't have any such troubles against the Pirates' arms. A key will be to have some semblance of plate discipline, as the Pirates' bullpen hands out free passes like they're on toothpicks at a grocery store. With the Sox' two best starters going against a weak lineup, this two-game set should be a nice spot to bounce back from a tough game and begin a new winning streak.

The Pirates had a run of three straight Wild Card berths earlier this decade, but aside from winning the Wild Card Game in 2013, they had little postseason success to speak of, and are now right back at the bottom of the National League, which is a place that the franchise is rather used to finding itself. That's a downer ending for the most exciting stretch of Pittsburgh baseball since Barry Bonds was in his mid-20s.

Probable Starting Pitchers