Edwin Encarnación’s struggles may force a change at DH

In last night's game against the Minnesota Twins, Edwin Encarnación singled to right field off pitcher Jose Berrios. Perhaps the fly ball would have been caught by a better defensive right fielder. Max Kepler, who had a very costly defensive gaffe already in the series, tried to make a sliding grab and came up short. Typically singles to the opposite field are not marvels of achievement. Especially when the exit velocity was only 86.7 mph off Encarnación's bat and had an expected batting average of .290. What's remarkable about this base hit was it came off a 95.5 mph fastball from Berrios. Only the third hit this season from Encarnación off a pitch faster than 93 mph.

When the White Sox signed Encarnación, it made sense. They witnessed what a slugger in his late 30's can still do by watching Nelson Cruz torment them. In fact, Cruz is still torturing White Sox pitching in 2020 at 40 (in five games, Cruz is hitting .526/.591/1.158 against the Sox). Despite only playing in 107 games in 2019, Encarnación continued his streak of 30-homer seasons. The White Sox were hungry for more power this offseason, and Encarnación was supposed to fill a need.

After 36 games, Encarnación has contributed to the home run column with six of them, but he hasn't done much else. His slash line is a woeful .170/.257/.404, and because he's struggling, the White Sox team DH numbers are terrible again.

Why is Encarnación struggling in 2020? Thanks to Baseball Savant, we can extract all of the pitch data that Encarnación has seen this season and the results against those pitches.

In total, Encarnación has seen 450 pitches in 2020. It's been a heavy dose of four-seam fastballs and sliders against the slugger. Almost 57 percent of the pitches Encarnación has seen have been those two varieties.

Since 2015, Encarnación has seen a decrease in fastballs seen as pitchers have thrown more breaking pitches. Last year, the results for Encarnación were pretty even.

In the small sample size season of 2020, Encarnación’s expected batting average and slugging numbers against breaking pitches are way off track. 

Problem #1: Encarnación is not hitting breaking pitches. With a whiff rate of 38.0 percent, surprisingly, Encarnación doesn't see more sliders and curves. Even when he does make contact, it's incredibly poor. The average exit velocity for Encarnación against breaking pitches is 83.2 mph. That's a difference of almost 6 mph from his 2019 results. The league batting average on balls hit at 83 mph was .226, with a wOBA of .227. 

Problem #2: Encarnación is not hitting 93+ mph pitches well. 

While Encarnación is not hitting breaking pitches, he's having a tough time with velocity. Looking at his 2020 pitch data, Encarnación has seen 113 pitches with a release speed of 93 mph or greater. Out of those pitches, Encarnacion only has two base hits: a home run and a single. 

Eighty-nine of the 107 pitches did not result in the plate appearance ending, and those results are described as "Null." 

• 35 pitches called for a ball
• 27 fouls
• 20 called strikes
• 11 swinging strikes

Encarnación has reached base twice thanks to the opposition's errors, but his slash line on pitches with a release speed of 93-plus mph is .150/.292/.300. He has one home run with a release speed of 93 mph or more, which came against Detroit Tigers reliever Gregory Soto. The pitch was a 96-mph sinker that Encarnación took out for a 407-foot home run. 

Encarnación's other five home runs and four doubles all had a release speed of less than 90 mph. 

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We would chalk up these results in a 36-game sample size as a slow start in a regular season. Encarnación is currently on a 27-homer pace for a 162-game season, and that's what everyone was expecting when the White Sox signed him. However, the 2020 season only has 24 games left. It's hard to justify continuing giving at-bats to Encarnación, hoping that he figures it out. Just a game out of first place in the American League Central, the White Sox need to ensure they don't have a black hole in the middle of their lineup. 

But the trade deadline has passed. Zack Collins was optioned to Schaumburg, meaning Rick Renteria is back to only having two catchers on the roster. It's risky to have Yasmani Grandal and James McCann in the lineup as catcher and DH if one suddenly gets hurt mid-game. One solution would be having Jose Abreu DH more, but he's having the best defensive season of his career and might be a Gold Glove contender. 

The other option is to buck the trend of manipulating service time of position players and call up Andrew Vaughn, but that idea seems an incredibly risky proposition. Vaughn does have a lot of promise but only has 245 plate appearances in the minors and never faced even Double-A pitching. His slash line with Winston-Salem Dash is also not impressive (.252/.349/.411). 

According to Rick Hahn, Vaughn did look good in summer camp and has been impressive in Schaumburg, which is perhaps a hint at the idea of Vaughn helping in 2020. 

It would benefit Encarnación and the White Sox if the veteran slugger figured out his struggles. Counting on Vaughn to join the team and reverse the alarming hitting trend from Sox designated hitters is a tall task. Then again, the White Sox can't continue having Encarnación bat fourth or fifth in the lineup. Tough to imagine the White Sox having a designated hitter problem when leading the American League in home runs and team OPS, but that's the situation right now. Maybe it's time to try something new.