The White Sox's magic number for a postseason spot is nine, but as Brett noted in the discussion in the recap post of the White Sox's 4-3 victory over Detroit, FanGraphs is already calling the Sox a lock to play on past Sept. 27.
The White Sox's postseason odds improved to 100 percent according to FanGraphs' projected standings. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA standings have been the more pessimistic of the two, but even it gives the White Sox a 99.9 percent chance.
That number is partially a reflection of the strength of the White Sox, and partially the fading threat of any team outside the eighth spot.
The Orioles and Tigers both fell to 20-24 after Friday's action. Baltimore absorbed a more costly blow in the form of a doubleheader stomping at the hands of the Yankees, who are one of the two teams the O's sought to overtake. As it stands, the White Sox pretty much have to reach .500 to feel secure, and considering the Astros are 22-23 yet a game and a half up for the eighth seed, breaking even might actually be overkill.
Assuming that we feel OK about the White Sox's ability to go 2-14 the rest of the way, the postseason percentiles to watch now lie within the division. Neither the White Sox, Twins or Indians have a clear edge in the percentages, but the White Sox have the plurality.
| FG | FG | FG | BP | BP | BP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 1st | 2nd | WC | 1st | 2nd | WC |
| White Sox | 45.6 | 31.4 | 23.0 | 45.3 | 30.1 | 24.5 |
| Twins | 37.7 | 38.9 | 23.3 | 41.4 | 39.8 | 18.7 |
| Indians | 16.7 | 29.6 | 53.0 | 13.2 | 30.0 | 55.8 |
The elephant in the room is the remaining schedule. The White Sox have the American League's second-most difficult path the rest of the way.
- Mariners, .532
- WHITE SOX, .522
- Rangers, .518
- TWINS, .516
- Orioles, .514
- Blue Jays, .512
- Angels, .495
- Red Sox, .493
- Tigers, .493
- Rays, .481
- INDIANS, .480
The good/bad news is that the White Sox's final fortnight includes a four-game series against the Twins in the first week, and a four-gamer in Cleveland in the second. The White Sox have built their record with bumslaying, but they needed to put themselves in prime position when the schedule firmed up, and even if the road looks tough, they'll have direct input on the shape of the final standings.
(Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)
