Earlier this season, after Michael Kopech had opted out and injuries and ineffectiveness sapped the outlook of Carlos Rodon and Reynaldo Lopez, Dylan Cease seemed like the default option as a potential number-three starter in a playoff scenario behind Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel. Now, given the emergence of Dane Dunning and Cease further struggling with his command, it's an open question how the Sox could best utilize him in the postseason. Jim noted that there doesn't seem to be much that Cease can do to get past Dunning for the #3 starter slot, so that would leave him at best as a bullpen candidate in the first series and a candidate for a Game Four starter in a potential American League Division Series.
The issue with carving out a role for Cease is that he has generally pitched very poorly this season. He may yet have a bright future ahead of him, but he hasn't shown the ability to command his good stuff in 2020, and in all likelihood, that's the pitcher he'll be through the end of the year. His walk rate (13.7 percent) and strikeout rate (16.7 percent) need significant improvement, and are entirely too close together. Unlike, say, Dallas Keuchel, he can't hang his hat on a weak batted ball profile, as opponents own an expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .487 against him.
One might point to his 3.52 ERA and suggest that he hasn't been all bad, but that number is wholly unsustainable with the way that he's pitched. Thanks to all the walks, Cease works himself into a fair number of jams, and while we might credit him for getting out of a lot of them in the regular season, the question is whether we should expect that to continue. Pitching into difficult situations and expecting to dig out of them isn't a good plan regardless, but Cease seems especially underqualified to clean up messes consistently. The best ways to pitch out of situations with multiple runners on base include:
- Striking out hitters
- Getting a ground ball for a double play
- Inducing pop-ups or other weak contact
We've covered that Cease's strikeout rate is unacceptably low, he's not a groundball pitcher (39.9 percent), he doesn't get infield pop-ups all that often (6.6 percent of fly balls, 2.5 percent of batted balls), and the amount of contact categorized as soft per FanGraphs is 11.4 percent, which is third-lowest in the major leagues. Cease has stranded 81.9 percent of opposing baserunners (11th-highest in the major leagues) despite that his profile suggests he's more likely to pour gasoline on a fire than extinguish it.
It therefore stands to reason that using Dylan Cease in a starting capacity in the postseason would be a very bad idea. The odds of a game getting out of hand against a good, patient offense are just too high. The White Sox have Gio Gonzalez and a herd of effective relievers that can pitch through a potential Game Four, and in a game of that leverage, it'd be best for them to put their best foot forward from the outset.
That leaves the question of if and how Cease could be used effectively in relief. Typically, you'd expect to be able to better utilize a pitcher out of the bullpen than the rotation if one or more of the following applies:
- The pitcher's stuff might "play up" in shorter bursts, knowing they don't have to cover several innings.
- The pitcher has one or two very effective pitches, but lacks a third offering to keep hitters off-balance over multiple plate appearances.
- The pitcher has significant platoon splits.
- The pitcher has significant endurance issues.
Cease can't reliably command any of his pitches, so I'd say the second one's out. His biggest problem isn't lacking a third pitch, it's that he typically doesn't have command of any two of them at the same time (and sometimes, even one of them). Here's how opponents fare against Cease the first two times through the order:
- 1st: .202/.283/.483 (99 PAs)
- 2nd: .208/.389/.375 (95 PAs)
These are pretty small samples, but even if we were to try to draw conclusions, I'm not sure what we might be able to say in Cease's favor. The really bad control problems don't seem to show up until the second time through the order, but he's getting hit pretty hard the first time through to the tune of seven homers in 99 plate appearances (for context, a hitter at that pace would have a mid-40s home run total over a full season). Given the quality of contact against him and his low strikeout rate, the low averages are likely a product of luck, so it's hard to feel great about either of those slash lines.
Cease's stuff is already excellent as a starter, so I'm not sure what more we could expect from a stuff perspective as a reliever. The endurance one was more or less listed for completeness; as Cease has approached or cleared the 100-pitch threshold in many outings, I don't think that's a concern. That leaves the platoon splits as the last possible justification for wanting Cease in the game in any non-mop-up scenario. Cease allowed a .914 OPS to left-handers last season and the secret got out quick. 59 percent of the batters Cease has faced this season have been left-handed, and opposing managers have been rewarded with a .257/.387/.500 line and a 20:15 BB/K ratio for their tactics. It's clear that Cease needs to be shielded from lefties in the 2020 postseason, but what about righties?
- 2019: .257/.333/.431
- 2020: .190/.292/.381
That 2020 line is just over 96 plate appearances with a fortunate BABIP, so it's not as comforting as the raw numbers suggest. That's still a 12.5 percent walk rate and a .191 ISO. However, it's not terrible either, and it suggests Cease might be able to hold his own against a stint of same-handed batters. The issue is that out of the bullpen, the standards are raised for the quality of pitching for high-leverage work, and assuming neutral luck, Alex Colome, Codi Heuer, Matt Foster, Jimmy Cordero (before you yell at me, Cordero's been great against righties this year), and Evan Marshall all seem like better options against right-handed batters, which would make Cease, at best, the sixth righty out of the pen.
Let's assume the Sox carry 14 pitchers, which would allow for Jarrod Dyson, Adam Engel, Yolmer Sanchez, James McCann and another position player (possibly Zack Collins in case they want an emergency catcher) as reserves, assuming they use their most common lineup. From the left side, let's assume Gio Gonzalez will be tabbed for long relief (and possibly an opener/fourth starter in later rounds), and that Aaron Bummer, Jace Fry, and Garrett Crochet will all be members of the bullpen. That leaves Cease, Steve Cishek, Reynaldo Lopez, Ross Detwiler, and (recovery-willing) Carlos Rodon for the last couple of slots. Of those, Detwiler would be my top preference due to his dominance of lefties this year. I suppose I'd pick Lopez or Cease in case a stretched out arm needs to handle a deep extra inning game, and which one I'd choose would actually depend a lot on who shows more in this last week of the season.
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None of this is a commentary on Dylan Cease's future. He has eye-popping stuff and if he develops the ability to command it, there's tons of upside there. The Sox should continue to explore Cease, but the franchise's first postseason appearance in 12 seasons is not the time. He simply does not have much to offer as either a starter or a specialist in his current form, and leaving him off the playoff roster could potentially be justifiable. Nonetheless, I'd imagine that the Sox will find a way to carry Cease; there's enough health question marks and roster-building strategies that would lead to it making sense. If they do, they'd be wise to relegate him to soaking up innings in low-leverage relief. As a 24-year-old pitcher, he's not yet a finished product and he doesn't have to be. Patience is called for, but with the playoffs looming, so is an honest assessment of where he's at right now.
(Photo by David John Griffin/Icon Sportswire)
