The White Sox entered last winter in dire need of a proven starting pitcher, and fortunately for them, the free agent market provided plenty of options.
Dallas Keuchel was not the first choice of White Sox fans by and large, although given what the Yankees paid for Gerrit Cole, I'm guessing there wasn't any topping them.
What's more notable is that Keuchel wasn't even the first choice of the White Sox themselves. They first directed their energy and resources toward Zack Wheeler, who reportedly spurned a higher offer from the White Sox to take a five-year, $118 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Sox regrouped and landed one of the market's top-six starters by signing Keuchel to a three-year, $55 million contract, with a vesting option for the fourth.
Keuchel might not have been a first choice, but he was a fine choice. He posted a 1.99 ERA over 11 starts, in which he went 6-2 and the White Sox 7-4. A late-season bout with back spasms -- and a dud in Game 2 of the wild card series after he returned -- is the only blemish on an otherwise terrific first year. The signing showed that the White Sox were indeed serious about 2020, and Rick Renteria probably appreciated that seriousness, at least until he didn't.
Wart and all, Keuchel's season fits right into the performances of the market's top starters, two-thirds of whom delivered in their first seasons on their new deals.
THE FIELD
| Pitcher | Contract | W-L | ERA | IP | H | HR | BB | K | bWAR | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 9/$324M | 7-3 | 2.84 | 73 | 53 | 14 | 17 | 94 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 7/$245M | 0-1 | 10.80 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| Zack Wheeler | 5/$118M | 4-2 | 2.92 | 71 | 67 | 3 | 16 | 53 | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 5/$85M | 1-4 | 6.48 | 41.2 | 47 | 13 | 13 | 30 | -0.3 | -0.5 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 4/$80M | 5-2 | 2.69 | 67 | 60 | 6 | 17 | 72 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 3/$55.5M | 6-2 | 1.99 | 63.1 | 52 | 2 | 17 | 42 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
Cole might not be able to improve upon his runner-up status in Cy Young voting -- he had a little trouble keeping the ball in the park -- but he ultimately delivered what the Yankees expected of him in the first year.
Strasburg was one of the first indicators that the Nationals weren't going to replicate their 2019 magic. He missed the first start of the season with a nerve issue in his hand, and while he said he wasn't "extremely concerned" about it, he was limited to that one delayed outing before undergoing surgery to repair it.
Bumgarner almost finished his first season in Arizona with zero wins to show for it before picking up a victory in his final start of the season. His fastball was three ticks lower than usual, and he missed most of August with a back strain. He did finish the season with a pair of scoreless five-inning outings, or else his numbers would've been even uglier.
Ryu overcame a couple of stumbles in July to post a 1.86 ERA across his 10 starts in August and September, which was around the time the Blue Jays found a permanent home in Buffalo. If you're looking for a nit to pick, he only pitched into the seventh inning once. That came in his final start of the season, when he threw seven scoreless innings against a Yankees team that torched him for three of his six homers he allowed all season the previous time they met. Otherwise, he basically matched his production with the Dodgers from 2019, when he finished second in Cy Young voting.
That leaves Wheeler, whose season was preceded by doubts about how much he'd participate due to COVID concerns pertaining to the birth of his first child. He ended up working around it and threw 11 excellent starts, completing seven innings in five of them.
What's fascinating is that Wheeler succeeded in a different way in Philadelphia than he had with the Mets. He maintained his 97-mph velocity, but he brought back a sinker for the first time in a few years, and between that and his four-seamer, he ended up throwing fastballs nearly two-thirds of the time. His strikeout rate plummeted five points (23.6% to 18.4%), but his ground-ball rate surged (43.2% to 55.9%) while he maintained a double-digit pop-up rate.
Basically, despite throwing eight miles per hour harder with the opposite hand, Wheeler looked an awful lot like Keuchel:
| Pitcher | GB% | BB% | K% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Pit/PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keuchel | 52.8 | 6.6 | 16.3 | 4.7 | 14.0 | 3.72 |
| Wheeler | 55.9 | 5.6 | 18.4 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 3.74 |
Keuchel (0.28) and Wheeler (0.38) finished 1-2 in fewest home runs per nine innings among qualified starters, and they were both top-five in ground-ball rate among qualifying starters while finishing bottom-seven in strikeout rate.
Also like Keuchel, Wheeler had his own injury scare that cost him a start, but it was of a goofier nature. He ripped his middle fingernail on his pitching hand while stepping into a pair of jeans. He came back to throw three decent starts, although he gave up 10 runs over 20 innings and the Phillies lost all three games.
Nevertheless, Wheeler's first year in Philadelphia looks like a success. Some Sox fans might have been rooting against him since he rejected their team, but it's a better reflection of the White Sox's talent evaluation if both he and Keuchel look worth the investment, rather than the Sox appearing lucky to avoid another dud. I don't know if the Sox knew they effectively settled for the same guy when they turned to Keuchel, but either one would have done the job.
(Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)
