When re-checking the context of the Zack Wheeler-Dallas Keuchel sequence for Thursday morning's post about the White Sox's hunt for a front-line pitcher last winter, I came across an item I'd forgotten about.
At the time Wheeler declined the White Sox's more lucrative offer in order to accept a deal with the Philadelphia Phillies, Bob Nightengale said it was the second time money alone didn't help the White Sox get their man.
Presumably, the White Sox saw Jordan Lyles as the second of two starters acquired to bolster the rotation, rather than somebody who could sneak onto the Wheeler/Keuchel tier, but either way, Lyles ended up settling a two-year, $16 million deal with the Texas Rangers.
Only Lyles can say whether he chose poorly, but everybody can say he fared poorly. If Madison Bumgarner was last winter's Jaime Navarro like asinwreck said in Thursday's discussion, then Lyles is a Todd Ritchie. He rode a hot streak that wasn't supported by the peripherals into a considerable multi-year deal with the Rangers, after which the time bomb detonated.
Here's how Lyles fared year-over-year from the end of July through September.
| Year | W-L | ERA | G | IP | H | HR | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 7-1 | 2.45 | 11 | 58.2 | 43 | 9 | 9.2 | 23.5 |
| 2020 | 1-6 | 7.02 | 12 | 57.2 | 67 | 12 | 8.6 | 13.5 |
Unlike Bumgarner, there don't appear to be any physical issues behind Lyles' deterioration. There are stories about pitch-tipping being a culprit, but it's also possible that Lyles just doesn't offer much to a team that isn't the Brewers.
However it happened, the White Sox didn't miss out on anything by Lyles signing elsewhere. They also didn't exactly strike gold with the guy who did take their money after his own decent partial-season with the Brewers.
Gio González signed with the White Sox for one year and $5 million, but not to any great effect. He only made four starts, and failed to complete the fifth inning in any of them. A shift to the bullpen worked gloriously for one game, but then González injured his groin, and was largely ineffective for the remainder of his season. Everybody remembers Carlos Rodón against the Indians, but partially because González against Jordan Luplow the day before exacerbated the frustration.
If there's any solace, the starting pitcher bargain bin turned out to be a minefield, especially if you remove a couple pitchers from the proceedings due to circumstances that didn't make the Sox a good fit at the time these signings were made.
THE FIELD
| Pitcher | Contract | W-L | ERA | IP | H | HR | BB | K | bWAR | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Teheran | 1/$9M | 0-4 | 10.05 | 31.1 | 39 | 12 | 16 | 20 | -1.0 | -0.9 |
| Kevin Gausman | 1/$9M | 3-3 | 3.62 | 59.2 | 50 | 8 | 16 | 79 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Homer Bailey | 1/$7M | 1-0 | 3.38 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Martin Perez | 1/$6M | 3-5 | 4.50 | 62 | 55 | 8 | 28 | 46 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Adam Wainwright | 1/$5M | 5-3 | 3.15 | 65.2 | 54 | 9 | 15 | 54 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Brett Anderson | 1/$5M | 4.21 | 4.21 | 47 | 50 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 1/$5M | 4.83 | 4.83 | 31.2 | 40 | 6 | 19 | 34 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Drew Smyly | 1/$4M | 0-1 | 3.42 | 26.1 | 20 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Alex Wood | 1/$4M | 0-1 | 6.39 | 12.2 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 15 | -0.4 | n/a |
| Rich Hill | 1/$3M | 2-2 | 3.03 | 38.2 | 28 | 3 | 17 | 31 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Michael Wacha | 1/$3M | 1-4 | 6.62 | 34 | 46 | 9 | 7 | 37 | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| Taijuan Walker | 1/$2M | 4-3 | 2.70 | 53.1 | 43 | 8 | 19 | 50 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Tyler Anderson | 1/$1.7775M | 4-3 | 4.37 | 59.2 | 58 | 5 | 25 | 41 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Kendall Graveman | 1/$1.5M | 1-3 | 5.79 | 18.2 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 15 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| Iván Nova | 1/$1.5M | 1-1 | 8.53 | 19 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
That's a big list, but it's easier to process by sorting them into buckets.
Not possible: Hill, Wainwright
The Twins signed Hill with the understanding that rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery would cost him the first half of the season. It just so happened that the pandemic forced the season to meet Hill on his terms. Wainwright seems like he's on an informal Tim Wakefield plan with the only team he's ever pitched for.
More injured: Bailey, Wood, Smyly, Graveman, Nova
Minnesota also added Bailey to their rotation, and he was supposed to be their full-season reinforcement. Instead, he went on the injured list with biceps tendinitis after just one start and was DFA'd during the last week of the regular season. Speaking of the final week, that's the first time Smyly threw five innings all season, as he missed six weeks with a finger strain. A sore shoulder cost Wood all of August and limited him to bullpen efforts afterward, Graveman was coming off Tommy John surgery, and Nova threw just four starts before triceps tendinitis cost him the remainder of the season.
Worse: Teheran, Wacha
Both of these pitchers could qualify for the above group. Teheran's attempt to redefine himself with the Angels was derailed by a positive COVID-19 test before the season, and he was never able to find a groove afterward. Wacha dealt with a sore shoulder during his ugly season, but it's hard to separate that from the general Metsness.
Better: Perez, Andersons
Perez looked like a breakout candidate last year during his first half with Minnesota, but regression in the second half knocked him out of the Twins' plans. Here's a case where the shortened season might've been tailored to his needs, because he was serviceable for the entirety of it. Brett Anderson has always been hampered by injuries more than performance, but he remained largely healthy in consecutive seasons for the first time in his career, missing just one start due to hip tightness. Tyler Anderson earned his spot in San Francisco's rotation by the first week of August, although his troubling combination of a 16-percent strikeout rate and a 29-percent ground-ball rate suggests a smaller park could've been tougher on him.
Best: Gausman, Walker
While Tyler Anderson's splits benefit from Oracle Park's dimensions, Gausman didn't need such help in resurrecting his career as a starter. His revitalized fastball-splitter combo set a new career-best strikeout rate of 32.2 percent. The only catch is that he tended to rack up high pitch counts with those strikeouts, and only pitched into the seventh inning once, but that's fine for a guy who's being paid fourth-starter money.
Walker pitched 14 total innings across 2018 and 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and a shoulder sprain, but he delivered in his return to Seattle, and ended up getting traded to the Blue Jays for their postseason push. His 2.70 ERA masks includes three duds and seven unearned runs, but he exceeded expectations by throwing more sliders than ever, and a new splitter, too.
Performances like those from Gausman and Walker tend to look obvious in hindsight, and it's possible that Walker felt better about returning to his original franchise in an attempt to re-establish his credentials. Isolate their stories against González's, and perhaps the lesson is that it's better to bank on long-dormant upside than manage a decline. Step back and assess the whole field, and it's probably more a matter of luck at these tiers. The same Giants who looked savvy with Gausman got burned by Derek Holland the year before, even though Holland flopped with the White Sox the year before that.
It also didn't help that with Rick Renteria's relatively rigid rotation, González's brand of "an ugly, decent four innings" wasn't a great match for a guy who hoped for five innings or more each time out. Now the Sox have to replace both, and while the ideal new pitcher can handle more than half a game by himself, the ideal new manager will be better able to deploy a starter who can't.
(Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)
