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Asinwreck asks:
I have a question about shaping narratives. The awarding of Gold Gloves have some historically ridiculous outcomes based on assumed narratives, my favorite being Rafael Palmeiro winning the 1999 1B award despite playing all but 28 games that year as designated hitter. Voters remembered him as a good defensive player so they just didn't change their narrative in a season when he spent little time in the field. That's only the most extreme case of famously basing defensive excellence on reputation.
Luis Robert won his first Gold Glove this year. Due to the truncated season, the criteria for the award rested with the SABR Defensive Index rather than subjective voting. No narratives of past excellence determined who won this year, but will the measures of excellence used for this year shape future narratives of excellence? Assuming something close to a 162-game season in 2021 restores voting to the awards, are voters' perceptions of Robert's defense going to be more favorable because he has already won a Gold Glove? What are the long-term implications of the ways we evaluate this unusual year?
Well, Major League Baseball is trying to get universal DH into the works for 2021, so part of me wonders of the league would simply prefer to hand over the Gold Gloves to the SDI the rest of the way. Assuming the old schedule and method of voting are restored, I would say that winning a Gold Glove certainly doesn't hurt future Gold Glove pursuits. It would take a grotesque turn of events for him to look out of place in finalist fields over the next several years.
I would feel stronger about this season making him a favorite for future awards if they'd played a full 162, because 60 games isn't enough to work out all of the small-sample burps. In fact, I think Kevin Kiermaier got as much press from being outside the top three as Robert got from winning the Gold Glove, although that's because Kiermaier's Rays were alive and well in the postseason at the time, while the actual winners were announced on Election Night. Either way, it colors the legitimacy of the 2020 awards a little bit, or at least shows that 102 more games would have ironed out more of the vagaries.
Also, the quantifiable and publishable nature of the SDI makes margins far less theoretical. Everybody can see that Robert only bested Byron Buxton by one-tenth of a run, and Buxton only played 39 games this year. A reversal in order next year shouldn't catch anybody by surprise.
Ultimately, I'm looking at it this way: If next year's Gold Glove finalists are Robert, Kiermaier and Buxton, does anybody have an edge? I don't see one. Robert's Gold Glove makes him a natural to be in such conversations going forward, but he'll need a couple more before holding a distinct advantage.
Andrew asks:
What is your thought about what needs to be done with space on the 40 man roster? Who has a tenuous hold on his spot?
The White Sox 40-man roster sits at 36, and that includes Luis González, which gives the White Sox a head start in protecting the most recent crop from the Rule 5 draft. They have enough room to add all the other off-roster candidates without running out of spots, which would be Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets and Tyler Johnson. I'm skeptical that Burger would require protection, because what team is going to keep a guy who hasn't played a competitive pro game since 2017 on a 26-man roster?
Protect Sheets and Johnson while omitting Burger, and the 40-man sits at 38. Then, if the White Sox do their part in contributing to what's expected to be a record number of non-tenders, Nomar Mazara and Carlos Rodón fall off that list. That restores the 40-man back to 36.
That gives the White Sox plenty of room to operate in the short term. If they need to create space, I'd imagine Seby Zavala is a candidate to fall off when James McCann's replacement comes aboard, José Ruiz seems fungible, and then you're probably looking at the option situations of Micker Adolfo and Blake Rutherford to figure out which one is going to run out of time first.
Elliott asks:
Who do you think stands to benefit the most from a new pitching coach: Kopech Lopez, Cease, or Dunning? Are there any pitching coach hires that might especially benefit one of those guys?
I'd rank them:
Dylan Cease
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Reynaldo López
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Dane Dunning
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Michael Kopech
Working bottom to top, Kopech resembled the pitcher he was supposed to be, at least for the brief time we saw him. His path to the White Sox rotation is just about getting up and down five times every five days against real competition. Dunning's sinker and slider played better than anticipated at the MLB level, especially considering his first crack at the majors doubled as a rehab stint. Like Kopech, we'll need to reappraise him once he resumes a regular experience for a pitcher of his experience level.
López's case hinges on whether you believe he's underperforming or doing the best he can. I've always thought his public battle with harnessing focus addressed a symptom of his issue instead of the root cause. He doesn't have a way to succeed when his fastball command isn't on point, and his struggles multiply when he's missing two ticks of velocity. A new pitching coach could help López find a go-to secondary pitch, but it wouldn't surprise me if López can't figure one out, and is more or less a guy who can muscle his way into the back of a rotation, but only if he's fully healthy.
Unlike López, Cease has at least two pitches with plus potential, if he can ever figure out plus repeatability. He's been battling his fastball movement, while the unreliable nature of his slider is just more emblematic of his issues with his delivery. Cease seems like a great candidate for either refined pitch design or a reworked pitch mix, which is why the time was right to find somebody besides Don Cooper.
Right now, I'm hoping Cease can turn into Nate Eovaldi, whose strikeout rate with the Marlins never indicated he threw 100, but was effective enough to hold a rotation spot nevertheless. There's also the chance that Dylan Cease is more like Dylan Tease, which is why he was traded by 24 Sox Machine general managers in the Offseason Plan Project. If he can't make strides with a new pitching coach, it'll be a year too late to capitalize on the stuff.
Dr. Bo asks:
Tim Anderson said all the right things about Tony LaRussa during his teleconference after winning the Silver Slugger. He also said he had not spoken to LaRussa. Did you find it curious that the new manager had not reached out to one of the faces of the franchise?
It's a little frustrating, if only because La Russa reaching out to Anderson seems like the easiest possible way to start putting the controversy of hiring La Russa behind the White Sox, and yet they won't even do that. It also seems within what you'd expect from La Russa, which is an old-school parent who would rather his kids see him as an authority figure first and a friend second.
I don't really have a concern with Anderson and La Russa meshing on the field. If anything, La Russa tended to defend his players to the point of being hypocritical and sanctimonious about the actions of the other dugout. My bigger concern was whether La Russa would moderate his stances about player expression and empowerment off the field, and his initial answers reflect some movement. I don't La Russa to be leading marches or parades, but I don't think he'll need to go that far to oversee good results from his best players with minimal fuss.
I still think the key is getting off to a decent start in 2021. If they stumble out of the gate and linger below .500 a month or two into the season, it's going to be hard to contain grumbling. One of La Russa's biggest strengths is his willingness to tolerate (or initiate!) conflict if he thinks it's worth it. After nine years off, the number of potential conflicts has grown, but if the White Sox win early, I imagine the majority of those battles will be with the other teams and their fan bases.
