With no news to discuss in podcast form, it's time to take your questions to text. As always, thanks for supporting Sox Machine.
Erik asks:
Who do you think has higher WAR in 2021, Eaton or Engel?
I'm going to say the Adam. Adam E. The Adam E. from Ohio.
If I set my expectations at "reflexive pessimism," then I'll say Engel, who's been worth positive WAR in each of his last three seasons, and was on pace for a 1.5 WAR season or thereabouts last year. It's partially because his defense gives him a high floor, partially because he's healthier, and partially because I'm guessing the White Sox will do what they can to make sure he's not overexposed. Eaton has far wilder variance than Engel, but the White Sox don't spend a whole lot of time on the highest percentiles of outcomes.
John O:
If fans decided that they wanted [Daryl] Boston gone b/c of the #MeToo stuff, how could they make that happen? It seems like if the Sox were *ever* going to take the opportunity to dump him, this would have been the time.
I think the Tony La Russa episode is instructive of how the White Sox would regard any backlash to Boston at this date. If you take their word, the White Sox knew full well of La Russa's charges when they hired him, but they acted as though nothing was the matter until ti was reported, deflected comment until it was resolved, and then shoved La Russa out to answer questions as quickly as possible, backed up by a written statement. I'm guessing they'll decline all public commenting opportunities until a move forces it, and hope that all invited media have forgotten about La Russa, or aren't inspired enough to ask about it.
(You can also apply this to Omar Vizquel, who was quietly fired with kind words, only for the truth to resurface more than a year later.)
With Boston, it's not nearly as clear-cut as either La Russa or Vizquel, so the White Sox wouldn't be more forthcoming or proactive. He was not a member of the White Sox organization at the time of his alleged crime, which was nearly 30 years ago. His accuser is dead. Boston never faced trial or the risk of punishment were he found guilty, but unlike La Russa, he avoided putting himself in that position again. He's been around long enough that the White Sox can say they've only employed the Boston they know, not the Boston he was accused to be a while back. Some people just luck out.
I wondered if the White Sox would find a way to move on from Boston because he hadn't been a particularly impactful member of the coaching staff, and La Russa might have his own guy for the job. I'd wondered this before the Vizquel news broke. The Sox have an unwelcome creep streak in their ranks.
Asinwreck:
I'm interested in your free agent predictions. Less *where* particular free agents will sign than *when* they'll sign given all the uncertainty of this offseason, The top-shelf players are likely going elsewhere, but when might the Sox expect to know if they are or are not going to have the services of someone like Jose Quintana or Curt Casali?
We're past the point where the White Sox signed Gio González last year, and the Edwin Encarnación rumors bubbled up around Christmas Day. Steve Cishek then showed up Jan. 7.
This year, it seems like the only players moving are bottom-tier free agents, James McCann and Charlie Morton. If there's a reverse order to this, then it wouldn't surprise me if a backup catcher arrived during the remainder of December. Given that the bottom-tier free agents are the ones signing, it wouldn't surprise me if a backup catcher arrived over the next week, with Quintana's bleeding over into mid-January.
With the pricier free agents, I'm guessing teams are holding out for an idea of how many games that player will be paid for in 2021, or at least trying to leverage that uncertainty against the target. In a world where teams think spring training won't start until April, do they wait until late March for the big moves?
Mark asks:
Should the Sox have interest in Luis Castillo and what would the return to Cincinnati look like?
They should, but it's going to be steep. Here are two pitchers entering their first year of arbitration, and what they've accomplished the last two years:
- Pitcher A: 19-14, 260.2 IP, 201 H, 27 HR, 103 BB, 315 K, 3.35 ERA, 5.5 bWAR
- Pitcher B: 18-12, 249.0 IP, 178 H, 32 HR, 85 BB, 325 K, 3.43 ERA, 6.5 bWAR
They're both under team control for the next three years, starting with a projected salary of $5.8 million, and the potential to skyrocket from there.
Pitcher A is Castillo. Pitcher B is Lucas Giolito.
Would you trade Giolito for another team's Michael Kopech? Probably not, not even if the White Sox were junking it. It'd take Kopech+, and anything beyond Kopech cuts into the bone. It might be possible if they hadn't traded for Lance Lynn, but that's the starter they chose to trade for, perhaps seeing an extension in the future.
@MidwayJimbo asks:
If the team decides to start season with current roster, is it realistic to think they’d use that payroll flexibility to attack at trade deadline? Who are those potential targets this season?
They've done it before, but when they've taken a contract off another team's hands, it's been for players who typically qualify as distressed assets (James Shields, Alex Rios). If Nolan Arenado has a typical Arenado year and the Rockies just want to get out from under his contract, I don't see the White Sox paying for the privilege of handing a star player $35 million a year.
If they do it, I think it'd be for a starter like Blake Snell or Yu Darvish, because the other possible candidates (J.D. Martinez, Kevin Kiermaier) aren't great fits for the roster barring an emergency.
