The winter meetings may be virtual, but the action is very real.
The White Sox's first move of the winter bolsters their rotation, as multiple reports have them acquiring Lance Lynn from the Texas Rangers.
Ken Rosenthal completed the deal: It's Lynn to the White Sox, and Dane Dunning and Avery Weems heading to the Rangers.
Lynn is entering the final year of a three-year contract he had signed with the Rangers, who had to love what he did with the first two. Lynn went 22-14 with a 3.57 ERA, finishing fifth in Cy Young voting in 2019, and sixth this past season.
He also had the peripherals to match, with the only concern being a jump in homers allowed:
| Year | W-L | ERA | IP | H | HR | BB | K | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 16-11 | 3.67 | 208.1 | 195 | 21 | 59 | 246 | 3.13 |
| 2020 | 6-3 | 3.32 | 84 | 64 | 13 | 25 | 89 | 4.19 |
Looking at his game log, five of those 13 homers came over 11⅔ innings against the Astros, who posted nearly half of the earned runs he allowed:
| Opponent | IP | H | R | ER | HR | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 11.2 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 5 | 11.57 |
| Rest | 72.1 | 44 | 18 | 16 | 8 | 1.99 |
Lynn relied heavily on the fastball-cutter combo throughout his Texas tenure, as they made up 90 percent of his pitches. It's not a visibly impressive arsenal, but he bullies hitters with it, and Mike Petriello summed up his 2021 outlook thusly:
We could spend another 1,000 words explaining how he's become a star, but the short version here is "he's good," "he's good in a way that seems repeatable, not flukish," "he's projected to be a top starter in 2021" and "he's only due $9.3 million in the final year of his contract," a more than reasonable figure even in this pandemic winter of expected belt-tightening.
Dunning is a fair price to pay, but how steep depends on how you feel about him after the most unconventional of years. His 2020 was a triumph by any measure. After missing the entirety of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery, his first attempt at sticking in the majors doubled as his rehab stint, and he showed he could hang. He posted a 3.97 ERA over seven starts, with 35 strikeouts against 13 walks over 34 innings.
Endurance was a little bit of an issue, both in-game and in-season, although it was understandable given the circumstances. He threw a pair of excellent starts in early September -- the first against Pittsburgh (six shutout innings) followed by his finest outing to date against Minnesota (seven innings of one-run ball). He struggled in his final two starts, inspiring Rick Renteria to put him on the shortest of leashes during Game 3 of the Wild Card Series.
If Dunning recaptured his pre-surgery form, he has a good shot at sticking in the middle of a rotation for years. None of his pitches jumps off the screen, but he commands them well. However, there's also a chance the White Sox are selling high on Dunning's body of work against weak opponents in a shortened season, and the direct upgrade over his rotation spot makes his absence easier to absorb.
As for Weems, he came from off the radar to surface as the No. 10 prospect on Baseball Prospectus' list. The White Sox grabbed him in the sixth round after a disappointing senior year at Arizona, but he handled rookie ball with ease in 2019 before the pandemic limited him to only instructional league play in 2020. Next year will be his age-24 season and he hasn't yet reached A-ball, but he'll come into the season with at least a little bit of stock momentum after pitching well in instructs.
(Photo by Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire)
