It was just a day ago that we discussed whether the White Sox could have offered what the Padres did to acquire a starter with Cy Young credentials.
Now we're doing it again, and this time the White Sox could have theoretically met the asking price.
Theoretically is carrying some weight there, but before we begin, the details of San Diego's second pitching megadeal:
- Padres receive: Yu Darvish, Victor Caratini
- Cubs receive: Zach Davies, SS Reginald Preciado, SS Yeison Santana, OF Owen Caissie, OF Ismael Mena
Darvish has three years and $59 million left on his contract, which doesn't seem that intimidating after finishing second in Cy Young voting in 2020.
In terms of talent/prospect stock, the White Sox could meet a similar package without draining their system the way equivalent prospects from the Blake Snell deal would've cleared out the top of the White Sox's list. FanGraphs' future values haven't been updated for San Diego's system, but the package seems to top out at 40+, and those prospects the White Sox have in abundance.
Kinda.
And here's where the theoretically comes in.
The age of the prospects is one differentiating factor. Preciado won't turn 18 until May, as he signed for $1.3 million during the last/current signing period. Mena just turned 18, and he signed for $2.2 million in the same class. Caissie is international in the sense that the Padres drafted him out of Canada in the second round. His 2021 season will also be his age-18 season, as he reached Ontario's legal drinking age after the draft.
Santana is the grizzled veteran of the bunch, having played 77 games across the Dominican Summer League and Arizona Rookie League over the past two seasons. He signed for only $300,000 three signing periods ago, but he made an impression by slashing .346/.429/.494.
You can liken Santana to a White Sox prospect like Jose Rodriguez, who similarly emerged from obscurity to make a dent in AZL pitching while holding down a middle infield position. Both players will be trying to pick up where they left off in their age-20 seasons next year. That only takes care of one of the four prospects, and the oldest one at that.
The White Sox's predilection for trading away international money in the absence of older Cuban prospects leaves them without any recent seven-figure teenage signings like Preciado and Mena, and Caissie doesn't have many analogues in general given his origin story. Marco Paddy's Cuban connections could pay off the next two Januaries with Yoelqui Céspedes and Oscar Colás, but the Sox are running a little thin on big-name signings from the previous few July 2s.
An equivalent package probably requires Rodriguez, Benyamin Bailey, Bryan Ramos and Elijah Tatis, or maybe you can swap out of the latter players for Lenyn Sosa if they're willing to trade a year of age for a year of accomplishment. But if they're not? The White Sox don't have a whole lot of places to go.
I cited Tatis specifically because that's the other hang-up in the White Sox conducting such a deal. The last time they dealt a teenage international prospect for immediate pitching help, that player ended up being Fernando Tatis Jr., who made short work of the long climb to become one of the game's brightest young stars.
Keith Law was among the first to cite the older young Tatis as potentially special, but he didn't see equivalent players sent by San Diego here. There's a chance one of them could pan out to give A.J. Preller a look at what life is like on the other side, but this seems more like a straight salary dump that teenage talent and a willingness to take on all of Darvish's contract remains possible.
Would the Cubs have done a similar deal with the team across town? Maybe not, although I'm guessing Tom Ricketts wouldn't have been choosy for a full-freight taker. It'd be nice to see some evidence that the White Sox have an appetite for another Dallas Keuchel-sized deal this winter, especially if it helps them overcome a farm system that doesn't have precociousness or athleticism to make up for a lack of accomplishments at the lower levels. It'd also be nice if another team starts making deals besides the one team that did the whole rebuilding thing just a little bit better than the White Sox. The White Sox can even be that team if they want.
(Photo by Kiyoshi Mio/Icon Sportswire)
