The Cleveland Indians are threatening to turn the AL Central into a two-team race.
The only problem for Cleveland is that it used to be three.
After years of delaying what it considered to be inevitable, Cleveland's front office dealt Francisco Lindor to the New York Mets, along with Carlos Carrasco. In return the Mets are sending a replacement shortstop in Amed Rosario, along with another infielder in Andrés Giménez, 2019 second-round righty Josh Wolf and 2020 compensatory second-round outfielder Isaiah Greene. The dealing of two decent internal shortstop candidates potentially indicate the Mets' interest in retaining Lindor long term.
The Indians have enough of a track record in developing lesser acquisitions to call his an out-and-out mistake, but it entails the risk of trading two birds in the hand for four in the bush. Lindor was one of the keys to making the Indians' top-heavy lineup sufficient, and now his 5.4 WAR ZiPS projection is off the books. Only José Ramirez projected better, and by one-tenth of a win at that.
Likewise, the Indians dealt their second-most projectable pitcher, as Carrasco was slated for 2.7 WAR according to ZiPS. In return, the Mets' ZiPS projections show Rosario good for 1.6 WAR, Giménez for 1.2, and the other two off the radar. Giménez ends up replacing free agent Cesar Hernandez at second. Hernandez projected for 1.8 WAR this season, so that's not as much of a drop-off on paper.
FanGraphs already is accounting for the trade in its team WAR projections. Before, the White Sox and Indians were neck-and-neck in their attempt to track down the Twins. My memory said it was something like:
- Twins, 38.2
- White Sox, 37.9
- Indians, 37.3 (or close).
Now it's:
- Twins, 38.2
- White Sox, 37.9
- Indians, 32.5
Again, it wouldn't surprise me if Cleveland fares a little better than expected, kinda like the way Michael Brantley redeemed the CC Sabathia trade by himself. It's still not great for baseball, but it should benefit the White Sox, who are finally back to being one of the two teams the AL Central allows to contend. Three? That was simply too much.
(Photo by Erik Drost)
